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Weather
- Thread starter taxi1
- Start date
I hiked up there one summer... they had a cool infographic at the top showing the crazy winter weather. I think they had clocked 200kt winds up there at some point. I had a post-hike cocktail in the Bretton-Woods hotel, of post WWII world order fame.
There is. You can take the cog railway to the top (fun to watch how the engineering works) or if you like to burn up car longevity you can drive up once spring rolls around. The hot chocolate is good!
Turn west at Montgomery AL and then full throttle until you get just east of the New Mexico line?
One of the reasons forecasting has gotten better is because of the system they built to use each airliner as a continual meteorological sensor during its flight. While in flight, the data is collected and passed by the airline to the forecasting centers to use to improve their numerical models. Pretty cool.
skybrary.aero
Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) | SKYbrary Aviation Safety
Description The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in cooperation with over 40 airlines globally, has established the Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay (AMDAR) programme. AMDAR is an aircraft based meteorological observation system that uses data gathered, and transmitted, by aircraft in...
skybrary.aero
While the iterative nature of forecasting has made the system more dynamic and reactive (in a good way) to events as they unfold, the issue I continuously have is that it's too reactive.
Some TAF stations will get updates more often than others. There's various reasons as to why that is, but airline use at those stations is certainly one of them. Unfortunately what ends up happening is that the updates will swing back and forth between LIFR and VFR...and then back again... in a matter of 4 hours. This makes it really hard to a) launch on a flight legally and/or b) launch legally only to have your weather collapse right in front of you. And then when you check the TAF again, sure enough, it's predicted it was going to be terrible again even though it said it would be fine two hours earlier for the same time period.
Local knowledge of course helps, but sometimes when you get burned so many times you end up just assuming the worst when you could have gone. All because of iterative negative reinforcement.
Some TAF stations will get updates more often than others. There's various reasons as to why that is, but airline use at those stations is certainly one of them. Unfortunately what ends up happening is that the updates will swing back and forth between LIFR and VFR...and then back again... in a matter of 4 hours. This makes it really hard to a) launch on a flight legally and/or b) launch legally only to have your weather collapse right in front of you. And then when you check the TAF again, sure enough, it's predicted it was going to be terrible again even though it said it would be fine two hours earlier for the same time period.
Local knowledge of course helps, but sometimes when you get burned so many times you end up just assuming the worst when you could have gone. All because of iterative negative reinforcement.
We’ve had some amazing swings in temp forecasts recently, with the boundary between warm and cold air bouncing around in their models (I assume).
The fundamental problem is in giving a point estimate to what really should be a probability distribution. A more honest way would be to continually provide probabilities for VFR, IFR, and low IFR, but I guess that would be a struggle for people to make decisions based on that.
hlg6016
A/C Wings Here
I was always under the impression that Mt. Katahdin was taller. Learn something every day.
“The thing about weather balloons is that they give you information you can’t get any other way,” said D. James Baker, a former NOAA chief during the Clinton administration. He had to cut spending in the agency during his tenure but he said he refused to cut observations such as weather balloons. “It’s an absolutely essential piece of the forecasting system.”
This isn't about making everything about politics, but rather how everyday things nearly all Americans depend upon (to varying degrees) are in jeopardy due to the manner in which needed savings are being found.*
*see, two things can be true at the same time
This isn't about making everything about politics, but rather how everyday things nearly all Americans depend upon (to varying degrees) are in jeopardy due to the manner in which needed savings are being found.*
*see, two things can be true at the same time