Hard Power and Soft Power

[Flash]

“You could make a case that it’s pretty clear that a twice-elected president is still eligible,” Peabody says. “You could also make a case that it’s murky. But I don’t find the argument terribly convincing that it’s a slam dunk that he isn’t eligible.”

That is an extreme view that would almost certainly be shot down by the Supreme Court, you might get one or two justices who want to tilt at the windmills but the intent of the 22nd Amendment was clear when enacted and nothing has changed since then. Anyone else who is arguing this is doing nothing more than legalistic circle jerking with a handful of folks who either want attention or are just plain contrarian.

All this is likely a moot point anyways, I think the whole idea is just trolling as of right now.

 

[Random8145]

You mean like negotiating with Russia over Ukraine, where he gives them half of what they want before you even start?

I'd love to know what kind of negotiating this absolute horseshit represents: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114031332924234939

These are legitimate points and I agree on the issue of Ukraine, but I am talking about the defense budget. You could use the example of his threatening huge tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

 

[number9]

These are legitimate points and I agree on the issue of Ukraine, but I am talking about the defense budget. You could use the example of his threatening huge tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Sorry, that was my bad.

 

[PhrogPhlyer]

but forget his need to always be right

I'm guilty as charged!

 

[Ventus]

Is hard power about to go soft?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1892327815988859279

To be fair, it's the Washington Post and I don't trust anything they say because by the time a story goes through them it's so spun you might as well call it a smoothie.
I predict less of a cut and more of a re-allocation of funds. We're paying so many contractors and projects that are delinquent on delivery, development, over budget, etc. Flag officers have been kicking the can down the road for so long and taking jobs from these defense firms as soon as they get out. We need to just pull the plug on a bunch of them and cut our losses. SECDEF should definitely be someone who is removed from the politics of Washington D.C.

Biased take but when I saw Secretary Hegseth's town hall speech at the Pentagon after his confirmation, I felt like a little Lance Corporal again listening to the O-6 that everybody liked addressing his unit. It felt good to have someone competent in charge again. He definitely has a commander's intent that I can get behind. Remains to be seen if he will indeed deliver but that's just my feeling on it.

 

[Griz882]

Pretty unfortunate that we are seeing the fall of the United States as the world's premier power. I think we've been seeing it for a while, but this current admin's idea of foreign policy is probably gonna accelerate it significantly.

I'm curious what is going to happen in Ukraine mainly. The US is actively excluding Europe (and Ukraine, weirdly enough) from the negotiating table. Europe has given more aid to Ukraine than the US has, and Europe has actively been deploying troops to the Baltic states to deter Russia, and they're more than prepared to just replace any U.S withdrawal from Europe. The U.S can agree with Russia on anything, but the EU is floating a potential 700B worth of aid to Ukraine (put that in comparison to the fact that Ukraine has only received 200billion from the US+EU at this point in time). I really am hoping more clearer heads prevail but I don't want to see a reality where the U.S says "we've agreed on a peace deal with Russia!", and then Ukraine says no, and the EU just ups its aid, and then we see Europe become self-sufficient, rendering the U.S military industrial complex effectively worthless, and our position as the "defender of democracy" that has given us world power status disappear.

Ukraine is my big focus point right now. That and selling F-35's to India. That F-35 news pretty much lost my vote honestly. They're pretty much just giving up any potential advantage against China and Russia by giving a BRICS nation our most advanced tech.

Uh…no…the EU has given more humanitarian aid than the U.S. But the U.S. has exceeded $130 billion of military aid as opposed to the EU and other nations (to include Japan) have only given about $125 billion. I think most people, including Europeans and Americans, would be immensely happy to see the EU step up and defend themselves and maybe a boost to Ukraine rather than relying on the U.S. to do the job. Beyond that, I don’t get much sense from your post. Are you angry the Military Industrial Complex won’t be making as much money? As for the peace deal, I wouldn’t let Trump’s ham-handed, late night social media posts get to too worked up - Russia and the U.S. can’t end a war without the EU and Ukraine agreeing to the treaty…even the feckless U.N. would consider it a joke in terms of international law. So, let the talks run their course for a bit before you imagine the collapse of America. All that said, I really hope you aren’t implying that Russia will now become the world’s premier power!

 

[Framer]

Uh…no…the EU has given more humanitarian aid than the U.S. But the U.S. has exceeded $130 billion of military aid as opposed to the EU and other nations (to include Japan) have only given about $125 billion. I think most people, including Europeans and Americans, would be immensely happy to see the EU step up and defend themselves and maybe a boost to Ukraine rather than relying on the U.S. to do the job. Beyond that, I don’t get much sense from your post. Are you angry the Military Industrial Complex won’t be making as much money? As for the peace deal, I wouldn’t let Trump’s ham-handed, late night social media posts get to too worked up - Russia and the U.S. can’t end a war without the EU and Ukraine agreeing to the treaty…even the feckless U.N. would consider it a joke in terms of international law. So, let the talks run their course for a bit before you imagine the collapse of America. All that said, I really hope you aren’t implying that Russia will now become the world’s premier power!

I thought I deleted the post before anyone could see it lol. I don’t really wanna argue politics here and I was basically inviting an argument.

But no, Russia is very much unable to do anything, can’t even execute a two day special operation. I meant the hole it would open for China, I feel like clarifying that is important lol.

 

[Faded Float Coat]

22nd Amendment. Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

The operative word is "Elected". There is nothing to prevent Vance from running as President with Trump as Vice President, then Vance resigning on Day 1. And no, the 12th Amendment also involves the word "Elected". Probable? No. Possible, Yes.

Would all the fanboys of this dog-shit idea be okay with President Obama, again? Because you know, geese and ganders... or would it be, "no, that's, um, that's not what we meant."

 

[Spekkio]

More cuts, erm, "refocusing" on the way.

 

[Griz882]

I thought I deleted the post before anyone could see it lol. I don’t really wanna argue politics here and I was basically inviting an argument.

But no, Russia is very much unable to do anything, can’t even execute a two day special operation. I meant the hole it would open for China, I feel like clarifying that is important lol.

Understood.

 

[Griz882]

More cuts, erm, "refocusing" on the way.

Hegseth said, “beginning immediately, the Pentagon will pull 8% — or roughly $50 billion — from nonlethal programs in the current budget and refocus that money on President Donald J. Trump's "America First" priorities for national defense.”

That’s what, about 600 F-35’s, or 50 new Constellation Class frigates, or a week’s worth of maintenance on an MV-22? Not a bad deal if he can pull it off.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Hegseth said, “beginning immediately, the Pentagon will pull 8% — or roughly $50 billion — from nonlethal programs in the current budget and refocus that money on President Donald J. Trump's "America First" priorities for national defense.”

That’s what, about 600 F-35’s, or 50 new Constellation Class frigates, or a week’s worth of maintenance on an MV-22? Not a bad deal if he can pull it off.

Any idea what programs are on the chopping block?

Lobbying is about to get ugly…

 

[Griz882]

Any idea what programs are on the chopping block?

Lobbying is about to get ugly…

Not that I know of. My old DoD civilian stomping ground was History, Heritage, and Museums. Setting the museums free to make their own way might save about $500 million. Cutting history staff could save a bit more over that but that cash would simply be rolled into contracts for the same services. I suppose you could find a few coins under the MWR couch, but not much. My guess would be that most of the savings would be in a good scrub of defense contracting and how we do some acquisition.

 

[JTS11]

Honestly, if you include the word 'lethality' and decry 'DEI' in anything, it will be approved. Real talk.

 

[gparks1989]

My guess would be that most of the savings would be in a good scrub of defense contracting and how we do some acquisition.

That is likely the biggest culprit when it comes to DOD excess, alongside healthcare. But neither of those will be reasonably reformed is my guess. I'd expect lots of quality-of-life stuff to get cut and huge battles over XYZ weapons systems.