There is two points being missed here:
1. Taiwan and PRC are very interdependent economically. Over the past few decades they have become increasingly more docile towards each other and they have allowed their economies become dependent on their profitable mutual trade. Any move that the PRC would make against Taiwan would destroy the trade and business between them, hurting the PRC economically. As more and more, newly rich businessmen enter politics in the PRC, that makes the thought of invasion fade a little faster.
2. When has the PRC government exactly followed the rule of law? This law is just as much, if not more, for domestic Chinese consumption, as it is foreign. It is a nationalist issue that can be used to unite the country if the populus gets restless, diverting the attention away from domestic problems.
The only way that the PRC will invade Taiwan is if the trade between them diminishes and/or if a PRC leader comes to power and seems illigitimate he will probably use the Taiwan to solidify the government and the people behind him.
Also if you noticed, directly after this "law" was passed the Bush Administration said they did not endorse Taiwanese independence at this time. It is the only pragmatical approach that could be taken, given how thin we are stretched. But does seem rather odd juxtaposed next to the great State of the Union speach he gave. Undoubtably, we would support the ROC (Taiwain- Republic of China) to the hilt if the PRC made a move. We would have to given the Bush Doctrine (supporting independent democracies around the world), unless we a complete collapse of our foriegn policy.
My view is that there is more likely to be a war between the Indians and the PRC, before there is a war between the US and the PRC over Taiwan. There is a good piece in this month's issue of
Proceedings about a possible conflict between India and the PRC.
I just hope I don't have any stock in walmart before the sh*t hits the fan.
Hey, I work for Wal-Mart, well not after August 1, but we have 29 stores in mainland China. I think it is funny as hell, there was good piece on Wal-mart a few months ago on CNBC and they showed one of the Wal-marts with a 16 ft statue of Chairman Mao looking across the square at the store with his arm raised with a smile on his face. Talk about irony.