Israeli Viper Down

[Duc'-guy25]

So far this weekend as I'm sure everyone here is well aware of:

-Iranian UAV (supposedly reverse engineered from the RQ-170) penetrated Israeli airspace and was downed by Apache's.
-The launch site of the UAV was attacked by Israeli Vipers, according to news sources a ungodly amount of Syrian SAM's engaged the attacking flight while they were egressing over Israeli airspace, downing one of the F-16I's. Both the pilot and WSO ejected with the pilot being seriously injured. I haven't seen any information on what SAM it was or if it might have been AAA even.
-Israel counter-struck the SAM batteries and other sites, most of which were Syrian but some Iranian.

Not trying to start a thread speculating the shoot down of the Viper, rather the implications. With ISIS and the civil war in Syria, it will be interesting to see if Syria pivots its energy to the south. Iran is definitely starting to get a little sporty in the region, and I'm wondering with the seemingly indifference from our administration if they will become more aggressive and involved with the aid of Assad. More so keeping an eye on the Russians to see how far they'll support Assad this time against an established US ally.

 

[Hammer10k]

I was surprised with how little press these events got. First time an Israeli F-16 had been shot down in decades. Putin and Netanyahu seemed to have a quick agreement to tone down any escalation. It'll be interesting to see where Iran pops up next.

 

[Brett327]

Israel can take care of itself. The US has been very hands off WRT Israeli military action in Syria, which is not a new thing. I don’t see this as a significant development in the ongoing shitshow that is Syria.

 

[pourts]

Israel can take care of itself. The US has been very hands off WRT Israeli military action in Syria, which is not a new thing. I don’t see this as a significant development in the ongoing shitshow that is Syria.

Yeah, fuck that guy for even posting about it. What was he even thinking?

Its a big deal... in a long line of big deals that have recently happened in Syria. Nobody's about to nuke anyone because of it, but it matters.

 

[Brett327]

Disagree. I guess you’d have to define exactly what you mean by big deal. Will this fundamentally change the policy of any of the state or non state actors involved? I think that’s unlikely.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Iran’s very close to accomplishing their long-term strategic goal of the “Shi’a Crescent”. They’re established in northern Iraq and have linked up with the Syrians. Erdogan seems willing to cooperate with them in exchange for a free hand to keep the Kurds down, and anyway he’s happy to do anything that pisses off the West. The Iraqis are busy with the ISIS bitter-enders and probably will be for a while.

The danger with that is that means they can start fucking with the Israelis directly. History shows that fucking with the Israelis usually ends up in things going kinetic. Even more so with Netanyahu's domestic problems; there's a strong possibility he will not be in a mood to de-escalate if-when the Iranians continue probing and poking.

 

[Flash]

Iran’s very close to accomplishing their long-term strategic goal of the “Shi’a Crescent”. They’re established in northern Iraq and have linked up with the Syrians. Erdogan seems willing to cooperate with them in exchange for a free hand to keep the Kurds down, and anyway he’s happy to do anything that pisses off the West. The Iraqis are busy with the ISIS bitter-enders and probably will be for a while.

The danger of getting what you asked for is getting exactly what you asked for, Iran has made some strides lately but that crescent isn't exactly a solid or stable one.

 

[Uncle Fester]

The danger of getting what you asked for is getting exactly what you asked for, Iran has made some strides lately but that crescent isn't exactly a solid or stable one.

No...but there isn’t much standing in their way right now, either. Erdogan seems determined to turn Turkey away from NATO and the West. Assad welcomes the ‘help’. The Iraqis who aren’t already sympathetic to Iran aren’t in any position to stop them. The Kurds are surrounded by hostiles. The Jords are keeping a low profile. The only questions are what the Saudis are going to do, and how far the Israelis will let things go before they hit back.

 

[Flash]

No...but there isn’t much standing in their way right now, either. Erdogan seems determined to turn Turkey away from NATO and the West. Assad welcomes the ‘help’. The Iraqis who aren’t already sympathetic to Iran aren’t in any position to stop them. The Kurds are surrounded by hostiles. The Jords are keeping a low profile. The only questions are what the Saudis are going to do, and how far the Israelis will let things go before they hit back.

While there are quite a few in Iraq that might feel somewhat 'sympathetic' to Iran there are still a lot that are not, and many of those that are still remember the war they fought in the 80's. Iraqi politics are a bit of a mess to say the least but they are a very proud people and would not be as compliant to Iranian desires as some may think. The fact they are Arab and the Iranians aren't is another factor I think is overlooked by some, with ethnic pride playing a part in the equation too.

I think Iran is in serious danger of overstretching itself as well with the latest domestic unrest coming partly as a result of folks finding out just how much their foreign adventures and the theocracy is actually costing, also notable is the fact it is rural Iranians doing the protesting this time instead of just the urban middle class as it has been in more recent history.

 

[Uncle Fester]

I think Iran is in serious danger of overstretching itself as well with the latest domestic unrest coming partly as a result of folks finding out just how much their foreign adventures and the theocracy is actually costing, also notable is the fact it is rural Iranians doing the protesting this time instead of just the urban middle class as it has been in more recent history.

There are more than a few smart people thinking that, too. Iran certainly could be blindly walking into a quagmire in Syria. A protracted foreign war and a decreasingly popular regime at home has brought down more than one government, as their new friends the Russians should be able to tell them.

However, the current situation has to be irresistible to the Iranians. A weak and divided Iraq, the Saudis distracted in Yemen and with their own internal messes, and an Islamist Turkish government (president, at any rate), means this is the best chance they've had since the Revolution to tackle their perpetual foreign problems. They can directly support Lebanon and Syria, threaten Israel, and push back the Kurds, all the while doing an end-around the Saudis.

They risk seriously overplaying their hand, though. The Iranians don't want war with Israel - they're not suicidal - so much as Israel boxed-in and neutralized. With KSA and Turkey for the moment sidelined, that leaves Israel as their only strong regional opponent. If they feel cornered, directly and/or via Assad and Hezbollah, the Israelis will hit back. And not the tit-for-tat airstrikes they usually do, either. Add to that, Netanyahu is fighting for his political life and definitely won't risk appearing weak when it comes to defending the country.

 

[wlawr005]

Solid analysis. Sounds like it's time for the good ole U S of A to pull back, refit, regroup and let the dumb fucks all take care of themselves.