KSA vs Iran

[Uncle Fester]

What the Hell Just Happened in Saudi Arabia?
Saudi Arabia Charges Iran With ‘Act of War,’ Raising Threat of Military Clash

Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of KSA, is going full Michael Corleone, arresting a lot of rivals on charges of corruption, among other things, and now looking like he wants to settle the check with the Iranians. The Kingdom has been in a rough spot for a few years - domestic unrest, deflating oil prices, and Iran stirring shit up to their north and south, and now they're stuck in a Yemeni quagmire. Clearly the US admin has signaled to him that we won't interfere. I think the next six months may prove interesting in and around the Arabian peninsula....

 

[Randy Daytona]

What the Hell Just Happened in Saudi Arabia?
Saudi Arabia Charges Iran With ‘Act of War,’ Raising Threat of Military Clash

Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of KSA, is going full Michael Corleone, arresting a lot of rivals on charges of corruption, among other things, and now looking like he wants to settle the check with the Iranians. The Kingdom has been in a rough spot for a few years - domestic unrest, deflating oil prices, and Iran stirring shit up to their north and south, and now they're stuck in a Yemeni quagmire. Clearly the US admin has signaled to him that we won't interfere. I think the next six months may prove interesting in and around the Arabian peninsula....

This Saudi-Iran conflict feature prominently in Peter Zeihan's newest analysis The Absent Superpower. (His first book, The Accidental Superpower, is not only the first listed book on the US Army's reading list for the strategic environment but also on the British Army's reading list.)

Even more interesting is the population distribution in Saudi and Iran. 2.5 million Shia in Sunni Saudi Arabia live on and around the massive Ghawar oil field and loading platform. Meanwhile 3 million Sunni live around Shia Iran's primary loading facility at Kharg island.

Jump to 30:00 section for a look at Saudi - Iran. The video also gives broad brush projections of Chinese economics, Russian expansion, German demographics and US disengagement if one is interested.

 

[Uncle Fester]

There was a very interesting ‘Frontline’ episode last year about all the turmoil in KSA. The monarchy largely keeps news of it locked down from the outside world, but there is a lot of internal discontent and pressure building, and Iran’s fucking with them is aggravating it further. I think the crown prince recognizes that and feels the need to make big changes, fast. Which always works out well in super conservative, autocratic countries...

Frontline: Saudi Arabia Uncovered

 

[RadicalDude]

I find the Saudis to be just detestable. Truly some of our worst "allies." It's a blight on our national honor (what's left) that we supply them with arms and the diplomatic freedom to do as they please in the region.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Well, there’s the internal Saudi societal corruption and incompetence that stem from 5+ decades of excess wealth and self-licking ice cream cones (i.e. a pervasive culture of being unable to objectively assess capabilities/weaknesses in order to identify and correct deficiencies).

There’s also the external regional jockying for power and proxy wars, leading to events like the Houthi missile shot toward Riyadh: https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/08/houthi-attack-saudi-arabia-white-house-response-244683

 

[Uncle Fester]

Defense One: The Middle East is Nearing an Explosion

"Combined with earlier moves, this means that (Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman) now essentially has gone after every one of the regime’s traditional pillars. Some wonder whether, untested and unseasoned, he might have provoked too many enemies at the same time. What he lacks in experience he more than makes up for in ambition, however, and for now he stands precisely in the position he craved: able to do away with years of assumed Saudi passivity and refashion as he sees fit both the Kingdom’s domestic and foreign policies, notably in order to more effectively confront Iran...bin Salman is convinced that Iran for too long has viewed Saudi Arabia as a punching bag, and that Saudi Arabia for too long has obliged. He sees Tehran possessing far less money, military equipment, or powerful international allies than Riyadh, yet nonetheless on the ascent, exerting or expanding control over Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sanaa. He believes that only by more forcefully and aggressively pushing back—whether in Yemen, Iraq, or Lebanon—can Saudi Arabia and its partners halt Iran and turn the tide. And so far he has shown, from the military misadventure in Yemen to the diplomatic misstep of seeking to isolate Qatar, a stronger propensity for getting into crises than for ending them."

 

[hscs]

I find the Saudis to be just detestable. Truly some of our worst "allies." It's a blight on our national honor (what's left) that we supply them with arms and the diplomatic freedom to do as they please in the region.

This is a serious question (and not one that is meant to pick a fight, like in another thread) - what makes them so detestable to you? I don't particularly like the Saudis (but not to the same fervor as you). I think they can do a lot more on reigning in the Sunni extremism, but, I do like how the Saudis will serve as backstop to Iranian malfeasance.

 

[jmcquate]

I find the Saudis to be just detestable. Truly some of our worst "allies." It's a blight on our national honor (what's left) that we supply them with arms and the diplomatic freedom to do as they please in the region.

Detestable, compared to whom in that part of the World? Allies and "national honer" (what ever that means), that's not how the world works. If we didn't sell them the weapons, the Russians would. Believe it or not, the Saudis are pragmatic, well, as much as a Muslim state can be..............and Europe needs the oil.

 

[RadicalDude]

This is a serious question (and not one that is meant to pick a fight, like in another thread) - what makes them so detestable to you? I don't particularly like the Saudis (but not to the same fervor as you). I think they can do a lot more on reigning in the Sunni extremism, but, I do like how the Saudis will serve as backstop to Iranian malfeasance.

They're an absolute monarchy that rules through authoritarian secret police, crushes dissent, sows conflict in the region... they're basically all the worst parts of Iran with the convenient exception that we never tried to install a puppet dictator there so the Saudis like us. nNot to mention the 9/11 stuff.

If we didn't rely on them as a wedge against "worse" state actors in the region, I have no doubt they'd be on the state-sponsored terrorism list, axis of evil, etc...

I understand the realpolitik involved, I really do. Just hate that the reality props up this corrupt royal family which is diametrically opposed to virtually every value (liberty, equality, democracy) we purport to represent.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Saudi Arabia picked the US over the Soviets during the cold war. That, plus oil interests and US basing, created the relationship. Like it or not, SA won’t ever be on an “axis” list because of that shared history with the US, and the fact that Russia will try to co-opt SA if there is ever a rift in relations. After what Russia did for Asad, Russia has a compelling test case to sell to other Arab leaders in search of friends.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Putin’s found a niche market in selling to/sponsoring countries that no one else will. Since that includes Iran and Syria, somehow they’ve stumbled into being the overwatch for the “Shi’a axis”.

Anyway, the Saudis have been pretty determined to maintain the status quo, even in the face of provocations. Even when they were under threat of invasion by Saddam, Fahd had to have his arm twisted pretty hard into allowing foreign troops into the Kingdom. The monarchy could dump enough money into the economy to keep the populace quiet, even with no civil rights to speak of and those Wahhabi lunatics driving around beating up people they think aren’t being moral enough. Now the oil money is dropping off and the Iranians are making trouble for them in every direction. Clearly Prince Mohammed doesn’t feel like they can sit and take it any more. I don’t think he’s wrong; I just question whether he’s got the experience and skills to pull it off. If you’re going to go Michael Corleone and go to the mattresses with all your enemies - you better be Michael Corleone. Not Fredo.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Putin’s found a niche market in selling to/sponsoring countries that no one else will. Since that includes Iran and Syria, somehow they’ve stumbled into being the overwatch for the “Shi’a axis”.

Agreed. Although, Russia does seek and maintain Sunni Arab partnerships, too: http://www.egyptindependent.com/russia-start-moving-50-mig-29-fighters-egypt-tass

P.S. Egypt bought the two French Mistral-class STOVL carriers that were originally contracted to Russia, before NATO balked. Something to watch in the next decade.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Agreed. Although, Russia does seek and maintain Sunni Arab partnerships, too: http://www.egyptindependent.com/russia-start-moving-50-mig-29-fighters-egypt-tass

Oh I don’t think Putin remotely cares about the religious aspects of it. It’s just a chance to poke the US in the eye and make some money. Also why they’re delighting in encouraging (Sunni) Turkey’s nonsense and selling them S-400s. ‘Make trouble for your enemies’ is the Russians’ go-to strategy, whether there’s a longer-term goal or not.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Interesting videos of the Houthi missile attacks on Riyadh today.

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...issile-attack-resulting-in-these-crazy-videos

 

[picklesuit]

Amazing how quiet the Aloha Snackbar got when that Patriot made a hard left at the guy videotaping.

That looked scary as fuck...

The BBC has a long article today on NPR regarding the Saudi’s war in Yemen and our involvement and profit.

Basically we are all bullies picking on a dirt poor society of misunderstood farmers...backed by Iran...