The biggest factor may be how many people the Navy is taking for flight slots. This continually (at least monthly) changes. There are so many factors affecting recruiting and selection for flight it's unreal. Add to that recruiters who are misinformed (or less than truthful) and it's really hard to know what's competitive. Right now, the Navy needs to get rid of somewhere around 150-200 junior officers who are waiting to start the flight pipeline. Those waiting for or in API, and those in the pool waiting for primary will have some stiff competition. Just a few months ago, you could fail tests (less than 80%) in API, and as long as you retested well, and kept the average above 80% you could graduate and move on to primary. Now they're increasing the required average to about 86% (don't quote me on the number) and any failures could be reason for attrition.
All that being said, this is all cyclic. Usually, the services are forced by congress to cut personnel, then a year or two later comes the realization that the cut was too deep, and they need more bodies, so many slots open up.
Just try to get that recruiter to tell you how many slots are expected to be open around the time your package will go in. I assume you will be OCS, so he might even be able to tell you how many OCS flight slots there are, as compared to those reserved for ROTC/USNA grads. Your numbers are plenty high enough, assuming they aren't in a tight-a** mode where only the 4.0, 9/9/9 football star has a shot at a flight slot. If I remember from when I redesignated to flight, the mins were only 4's or 5's. Good luck.
Flying Penguin
