Odds

[Maine Vaulter]

I'm sure this has been asked a million times, but I searched twice and couldn't find an answer: Assuming I get a flight contract and make it to flight school, what are the odds of flying a fighter jet? ie do 2 SNA's get helos to 1 SNA getting a fighter jet?

Again sorry for repeating a question that probably the most asked here, but I just couldn't find a straight answer.

Thanks

 

[Picaroon]

Ooh.. yeah, they don't like this question. Anyway, all I know from what I've read on AW is that it varies, so do your best and put your choice down and hope.

As for me, I'll worry about that after I get BDCP, after I finish OCS, after I've beaten my way through API and primary. Basically, there's plenty to worry about without worrying about your selection if you're anywhere near the point I'm at.

Also, I would add that if you came here thinking like I did and a lot of us do at first, you think "LOL I WANT TO FLY HORNETZ!" But after reading and learning, and making myself (only slightly) less ignorant to military aviation, I've realized there's no platform or job in Naval Aviation I wouldn't want.

 

[Dingobat]

Oh SNAP man! (Waits for seal)

 

[HAL Pilot]

That is because there is no straight answer to this question.

It all depends on what the Navy or Marines need most the week you finish primary. The only way to up the odds in your favor is to be the number one guy in your class, but even that is not a guarantee.

But your chances of not getting a fighter are better than your chances of getting one.

 

[Maine Vaulter]

Oh SNAP man! (Waits for seal)

I feel like I should duck behind my couch :shake_125

 

[FormerRecruitingGuru]

Somewhere between 0% and 99.9%. Problem solved.

 

[HAL Pilot]

I feel like I should duck behind my couch :shake_125

You probably should.....your saving grace with me was the wording. If you had asked "what percent....." I might have lost it :banghead_

 

[Maine Vaulter]

Since I already seemed to have posted the holy grail of stupid questions I geuss I'll ask another and get my flaming over with all at once :icon_wink

What percent of students graduate flight school?

Ready, Set, Flame!

 

[Dingobat]

:scared_12

 

[MrSaturn]

Oh SNAP man! (Waits for seal)

 

[raptor10]

NAVAIR and NAE are concurrently working at bringing the number to IIRC 42

 

[HeyJoe]

NAVAIR and NAE are concurrently working at bringing the number to IIRC 42

NAVAIR = Naval Air Systems Command and they are in acquisition of hardware business so even though they bring you the simulators, T-6. T-45, etc. they have nothing to do with actual output.

NAE = Naval Aviation Enterprise and the triad includes Commander Naval Air Forces at top, OPNAV Director of Air Warfare on the bottom right and NAVAIR on the bottom left. They care about cost of doing business overall (of Naval Aviation), but are much more concerned about operational units.

The staff/command that works the output and numbers everyday (that you are referring to) is CNATRA (pronounced like "Sinatra").

 

[raptor10]

It was a joke... 42 being that infamous number from the book... all of them were incongruous on purpose...

 

[Heloanjin]

There is no solid answer to either of your questions, and the soft answer changes over time, however....

For USMC, about 25%-30% of newly winged pilots fly jets, 55%-60% fly helos, the balance fly tiltrotor and multiengine.

For USN, about 20-25% of newly winged pilots fly jets, 45-50% fly helos, 15-20% fly multiengine (other than E2/C2 and E6), and the balance fly E2/C2 and E6.

The number out of primary that select for each pipeline varies a great deal from week to week.

The non-completion rate for each phase of training is about 1-2% for API, 10-12% for Primary, 10-15% for jets, 5-8% for helos, and 1-3% for multiengine. That includes all reasons for non-completion (medical, DOR, test failure, flight failure, officer like qualities, etc).