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SOFA Passes in Iraq

Clux4

Clux4

Banned
What do you think?
Civil unrest, possible war between the different factions!!
Time will tell.
 
OUSOONER

OUSOONER

Crusty Shellback
pilot
I just hope this is not another 1980's Afghanistan..I hope this Iraqi army is well trained and the leadership has a sack, or else it's just going to be a power vacuum.

Stand by for Iran to play good guy and "praise us" for allowing Iraq to stand on it's own and leaving them be. Then behind our backs do anything they can to create unrest and establish their own influence in the country. (Which they probably have been doing anyway.)

Just my opinion, but could be a possibility..I hope I'm wrong and a strong, democratic country is born in the Middle East.

Do you guys predict that we leave our weapons/vehicles there..like we did in Saudi during Gulf War I ? Do you think we keep a carrier on station?
 
Brett327

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Clux4 said:
What do you think?
Civil unrest, possible war between the different factions!!
Time will tell.
Click to expand...

Why do you always assume the most cataclysmic scenario possible? How about jubilation that the occupation of their sovereign nation is over, matched by continued steady progress towards a marginally functional civil society? How about some of that American optimism?

Brett
 
squorch2

squorch2

he will die without safety brief
pilot
Seriously... this is an evaluation by the Iraqi people that they can handle things on their own, thus freeing us up to move on! Granted, we're moving on to Afghanistan, but still...
 
HercDriver

HercDriver

Idiots w/boats = job security
pilot
Super Moderator
As long as we declare victory as we pull out, it should be OK.

Cut and run, indeed.
 
Flash

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
OUSOONER said:
I just hope this is not another 1980's Afghanistan..I hope this Iraqi army is well trained and the leadership has a sack, or else it's just going to be a power vacuum.
Click to expand...

Fortunately Iraq is not as ethnically divided as Afghanistan, though the Kurdistan will remain a challenge for the country.

'Well trained'? By Arab standards, maybe.

OUSOONER said:
Stand by for Iran to play good guy and "praise us" for allowing Iraq to stand on it's own and leaving them be. Then behind our backs do anything they can to create unrest and establish their own influence in the country. (Which they probably have been doing anyway.)
Click to expand...

They have and will continue to do so. But that solidarity will only go so far, remember that they did fight an 8 year war not too long ago. Iranian influence will only go so far.

OUSOONER said:
Do you guys predict that we leave our weapons/vehicles there..like we did in Saudi during Gulf War I ? Do you think we keep a carrier on station?
Click to expand...

There were more than weapons and vehicles in Saudi after the Gulf War, there were quite a few people, mainly USAF, there too until OIF. I am guessing something similar for Iraq.
 
Swanee

Swanee

Cereal Killer
pilot
None
Contributor
Flash said:
There were more than weapons and vehicles in Saudi after the Gulf War, there were quite a few people, mainly USAF, there too until OIF. I am guessing something similar for Iraq.
Click to expand...

I agree. I believe the USAF will keep a presence at Balad for quite some time. The old man tells me they sure have spent a lot of money in improvements to just walk away.
 
Z

Zissou

Banned
Iraqis are immensely proud to be Iraqi.

Iranian influence will go only as far as the money gets them. Shiites dont want to be a new Iran, they just want a Shiite Iraq.

Most Iraqis day dream of the 1950's when Baghdad was the vacation destination of the ME. Thats what they always spoke of, the good ole days.

I havent met every Iraqi but I havent met any Iraqi who doesnt resent foreign interests.

I was there when their soccer team won a game at the World Cup. And the day Saddam was captured. No comparison. They love Iraq. Saddam was a hiccup in the history of the fertile crescent.

Thats my expierience with them anyway. I could be way off.
 
E

exhelodrvr

Well-Known Member
pilot
OUSOONER said:
I just hope this is not another 1980's Afghanistan..I hope this Iraqi army is well trained and the leadership has a sack, or else it's just going to be a power vacuum.

Stand by for Iran to play good guy and "praise us" for allowing Iraq to stand on it's own and leaving them be. Then behind our backs do anything they can to create unrest and establish their own influence in the country. (Which they probably have been doing anyway.)

Just my opinion, but could be a possibility..I hope I'm wrong and a strong, democratic country is born in the Middle East.

Do you guys predict that we leave our weapons/vehicles there..like we did in Saudi during Gulf War I ? Do you think we keep a carrier on station?
Click to expand...

I don't think that there is enough surplus equipment to leave it there, especially considering the wear and tear it has been getting the last 5 years; remember that in 1991 the drawdown was going on so there was some amount of "extra" equipment available.

By 2011, the situation with Iran will be much clearer; if they look like they constitute a threat, I imagine that the agreement will be extended/re-negotiated. And if they are not a threat, then there probably won't be a much need for U.S. troops there.
 
Flash

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
It wasn't equipment that I was thinking of still being there past 2011, Kuwait is the more likely storage place for forward-placed equipment anyways. If I had to guess, we might have a sizeable advisor contingent along with more specialized personnel still in place. Iraq still has a long way to go to get a fully functional and self-supporting military up and running, along with the rest of the country.

And while Iran will always be a worry there are significant impediments to their ambitions in Iraq. As Zissou already pointed out, Iraqis are very proud. Then there are the basic differences like the fact that Iraqi's are largely Arab while the Iranians are, well, Iranian/Persian, coming from very different cultures and traditions. Even their view on religion is a bit different, with the Iraqi Shia clergy (educated and centered in Najaf, Iraq) largely taking a much more moderate view towards Islam's role in government and society in general than the Iranian Shia clergy (from Qom, Iran-based centers). This view is exemplified by the the most influential Iraqi cleric's stand on Islam's role in Iraqi politics, which is largely to keep the two seperate.

So, still a lot of issues and concerns but it is looking a lot better for both us and the Iraqis than just a few months ago.
 
Clux4

Clux4

Banned
Brett327 said:
Why do you always assume the most cataclysmic scenario possible? How about jubilation that the occupation of their sovereign nation is over, matched by continued steady progress towards a marginally functional civil society? How about some of that American optimism?

Brett
Click to expand...

I guess I see the glass half-empty.
What I want to know now is, are there any pending military sales to Iraq?
Are they going to gives us a hand with their oil profits because war ain't charity work.
 
HueyCobra8151

HueyCobra8151

Well-Known Member
pilot
Assuming that all the ducks are in a row, this is all the natural progression of our use of force in Iraq.

Before you get all up in arms, remember that this isn't some [insert your favorite political catchphrase of the day] politician in Washington, this was instituted by elected officials in Baghdad. Clearly they know enough to make the decision.

This is the way it is supposed to go down.
 
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