Virgin Galactic - Will this thing ever pay?

[Uncle Fester]

In the news this week: Richard Branson's Enterprise (formerly SpaceshipTwo) made it's first captive-carry flight out of the Mojave commercial spaceport. It remained attached to its 'mothership' for the flight, as the Space Shuttles did on NASA's 747 before flight.

I got into a discussion with a guy at work over whether this could ever really pan out into a viable money-making endeavor. I don't know if there are enough idle rich in the world for space tourism to carry the technology costs, but I think there's got to be enough of a niche market for ultra-high-speed passenger service. Like Concorde, but higher, farther and faster, and even more expensive. A dozen pax once or twice a day, Dubai to LA or Singapore to London, in just a couple hours? I can see people shelling out for that.

He thinks the technology just isn't there, and won't be without some major breakthrough. I think that if there's money to be made, the technology will be found. Especially since NASA's new mandate is apparently to subsidize this kind of thing. And military applications...imagine making a drone out of this thing.

Discuss.

 

[PropStop]

I think it will pan out. There are a lot of people already signed up for a ride when this thing hits IOC. In the long term, I don't see it remaining successful, once the novelty wears off. However, a lot of people thought the airplane would just never work - and at first it was really more a curiosity than anything. This will be a stepping stone to a new era of space flight and commercial exploitation of space.

I wish them nothing but the best of luck. If I had the quid I'd sign up, if only to help support the endeavor.

 

[yak52driver]

I want to believe it will be successful. My biggest concern is when an accident happens and people get killed and how the FAA and other government agencies will attempt to regulate safety for them to the point of them not being able to fly. With the President effectively the killing Aries/Orien program (last I'd heard anyway) this and the Russians will be our only way into space. SpaceShipTwo is suborbital, but plans are on the drawing board from Burt Rutan for an orbital spacecraft. I do think enough rich people are out there to make it commercially viable and with NASA outsourcing to private industry I think it can work.

 

[JustAGuy]

I read somewhere that the list to ride in this thing is already over 80,000 people strong.

Some people will pay to do anything, no matter the cost.

 

[helolumpy]

I would love just to have the spare cash available to say; 'You know what I want to do? I want to build the world's first reusable space plane!"

 

[Uncle Fester]

I read somewhere that the list to ride in this thing is already over 80,000 people strong.

Some people will pay to do anything, no matter the cost.

True, and we did the math - at the rate of flights they're talking about, that waiting list is 250+ years long. Of course, how many of those folks can actually come up with the money for a ticket? And how many put their name on the waiting list because they want to get up there and shoot down the secret CIA mind-control satellite?

Space tourism - that is, not going anywhere, just getting up high so you can say you did - is one thing, but I'm thinking, if you want to make this sucker a paying business, you need to actually take people somewhere. Some of the ultra-high-end passenger flights today charge upwards of $10K for a ticket - I'm talking the private-suite A380 Singapore routes and the like. So if people are willing to fork over that much money just to be comfortable, imagine how much some of the oil sheiks or banking barons might pay to get on the ultimate exclusive airline flight and get from Dubai to New York in an hour or two?

 

[Clux4]

I would love just to have the spare cash available to say; 'You know what I want to do? I want to build the world's first reusable space plane!"

But you can design an aircraft with similar characteristics as the U-2 for cheap and give people an high altitude experience. It would not be space but the average person would still find it interesting. It would not cost an arm and a leg either.

 

[Jim123]

How many people on that list are on the no-fly list? Will you be allowed to carry liquids or gels in containers larger than 3 oz? And who will be the first passenger to have their cell phone ring in flight (Hey! You were supposed to turn those things off when we closed the cabin door!).



@Yak52driver, I'm worried about overregulation too. A couple days ago I just shook my head in disgust about the FAA's safety warning/hysteria/fallout from the Lancair crash in Virginia- Is our society so wussified that we are now paying public servants to warn pilots that 350kt airplanes have high stall speeds too and passing this discovery under the pretense of "safety"??? And now we have people smart enough to build a commercial spaceship thrill ride...

/end rant about need for smaller government

 

[Swanee]

But you can design an aircraft with similar characteristics as the U-2 for cheap and give people an high altitude experience. It would not be space but the average person would still find it interesting. It would not cost an arm and a leg either.

It can be done without an engine. (Now if only they can find another sponsor with the cash flow and the interest that Steve Fosset had.)

http://www.perlanproject.com

 

[yak52driver]

How many people on that list are on the no-fly list? Will you be allowed to carry liquids or gels in containers larger than 3 oz? And who will be the first passenger to have their cell phone ring in flight (Hey! You were supposed to turn those things off when we closed the cabin door!).



@Yak52driver, I'm worried about overregulation too. A couple days ago I just shook my head in disgust about the FAA's safety warning/hysteria/fallout from the Lancair crash in Virginia- Is our society so wussified that we are now paying public servants to warn pilots that 350kt airplanes have high stall speeds too and passing this discovery under the pretense of "safety"??? And now we have people smart enough to build a commercial spaceship thrill ride...

/end rant about need for smaller government

I think the core of the problem you mention is that many civilian flight instructors don't teach students how to be pilots, they teach them to drive an airplane. They rely on the technology (glass panels, autopilots, gps, etc) to fly the plane and don't really have any stick and rudder skills. Then they get all surprised when someone makes a smoking hole in the ground. I recently did spin training with CFI studs at a nearby college with a flight program. During the spin training to a person they said they wished the college flight program taught them more stick and rudder skills. So we have a generation of CFI's that don't have those skills teaching new pilots to fly. /end of airplane driver rant

 

[CumminsPilot]

It can be done without an engine. (Now if only they can find another sponsor with the cash flow and the interest that Steve Fosset had.)

http://www.perlanproject.com

Chief Designer on Perlan, Greg Cole, is also the aerodynamicist that did the Lancair Evolution. Talked to Greg in February...Perlan is still in the works. He is, by far, the best designer I've ever had the pleasure to work with. Burt Rutan's got nothing on Greg.

 

[SkywardET]

Branson is just clever enough to get this thing going, I think. He has all kinds of wealth and other sources of income to subsidize this fancy until it becomes more than just a fanciful endeavor. It will happen, barring his premature death or other catastrophe.