Pilot shortage?

[SlickAg]

They’re still not addressing, much less fixing, the actual issue. In ten years this fresh batch of pilots is going to be just as eager to get out as the current batch coming up on their ADSC.

The Air Force, Navy/MC as well, doesn’t have a recruiting problem, they have a retention problem. Shortchanging people as they go through UPT does nothing other than allow them to prematurely declare victory on a fake war that didn’t need to be fought.

 

[Pags]

Perhaps they have addressed it by making new pilots faster and have given up on any hope of solving retention. If you can't stop the leak just increase your input to make sure the numbers work with the leak.

 

[Jim123]

The other possibility might be that low production and overly optimistic retention was the problem all along. Service commitments have crept up over the years (~4 years was normal in the Vietnam era).

 

[Pags]

The other possibility might be that low production and overly optimistic retention was the problem all along. Service commitments have crept up over the years (~4 years was normal in the Vietnam era).

Yeah, the system used to be built around the assumption that you'd get maybe a fleet tour and a bit of a shore tour and then most folks would head for the door. With training times increasing it's still the same thing it just takes longer to get there.

 

[scoolbubba]

That's an interesting point...but is the maturity really an end goal or just a fringe benefit of a long syllabus? It sounds like the way NATSC would defend the USN syllabus: "sure, it takes us years longer to make a jet pilot than the USAF but our aviators show up to the fleet as more mature officers."

I mean maturity in terms of airmanship, judgment, basic aircraft control, handling EPs etc. I could give a fuck what you think about dick and/or fart jokes.

 

[scoolbubba]

Sims are pretty good these days. I didn’t feel at all unprepared flying my first real 737 flight with passengers on board. Then again, I wasn’t a flight student with 80ish real flight hours under my belt. I think they will be missing a lot of experience that can only be gained flying to real airfields with real traffic and real controllers and real weather and real airplanes.

This. This is what i was getting at.

 

[Pags]

This. This is what i was getting at.

Yeah, I think the majors are a poor model to base assumptions off of because they have the money to buy the right sims (and their configurations are maybe more stable?) and because the folks they're training are proven aviators with a minimum number of hours. Or put another way, it's one thing to take 1000+hr plus guy who flew tactically and train them for a new airplane and simpler mission (I assume) then it is to train a guy in the sims who's only flight experience is seat 18C on that flight to spring break. At some point you're just pushing the pain to THE RAG and fleet.

 

[wink]

Yeah, I think the majors are a poor model to base assumptions off of because they have the money to buy the right sims (and their configurations are maybe more stable?) and because the folks they're training are proven aviators with a minimum number of hours. Or put another way, it's one thing to take 1000+hr plus guy who flew tactically and train them for a new airplane and simpler mission (I assume) then it is to train a guy in the sims who's only flight experience is seat 18C on that flight to spring break. At some point you're just pushing the pain to THE RAG and fleet.

Your comment regarding sim quality may have merit. But one can not ignore the ab initio airline programs. For decades foreign airlines have been training in GA aircraft just through FAA commercial pilot certification and then sending them on to the line. Those guys do not do any tactical flying, and I don't even know how the safety numbers stack up. But it is a data point.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Your comment regarding sim quality may have merit. But one can not ignore the ab initio airline programs. For decades foreign airlines have been training in GA aircraft just through FAA commercial pilot certification and then sending them on to the line. Those guys do not do any tactical flying, and I don't even know how the safety numbers stack up. But it is a data point.

The ab initio guys are also flying with guys with a lot of experience. That isn’t really the case in the military where these sim babies will soon be flying with an aircraft commander with a couple years experience.

 

[Pags]

Your comment regarding sim quality may have merit. But one can not ignore the ab initio airline programs. For decades foreign airlines have been training in GA aircraft just through FAA commercial pilot certification and then sending them on to the line. Those guys do not do any tactical flying, and I don't even know how the safety numbers stack up. But it is a data point.

Not familiar with that program and what it entails. Kind of like the Riddle dream? A bunch of cessna hours to make mins and then straight to FO at KLM? Which airlines?

 

[wink]

The ab initio guys are also flying with guys with a lot of experience.

Not always so. Like here Captains can check out in just a few years. Depends on growth. If most ab initio guys go on the line with 400-500hours, they have to log another 1000 or so to get an ATP, or whatever their country requires. That should take at least 2 years.

 

[wink]

Not familiar with that program and what it entails. Kind of like the Riddle dream? A bunch of cessna hours to make mins and then straight to FO at KLM? Which airlines?

Most Asian airlines still. Lots of others. Lufthansa still trains from zero to hero in Arizona. Done so since the 70s, if I recall. Lost track of who is still training out here, but I have seen SAS, Sabena, JAL, Air China, and Cathay.

 

[scoolbubba]

The automation and standardization at the 121 carriers is light years ahead of what I saw in the Navy, which is one of the reasons a junior CA can go out and fly 5 legs with the plug FO.

Granted, with p-8s everywhere and F-35s doing pointy nose things, maybe we'll catch up, but I also think I saw the AF planning to fly 135s and buffs fooooorrrrreeevvvvvvvvverrrrrrrr.

I would be sweating bullets with an 80 hour wonder as a rag IP. I was already stupid enough as a cat-1...can't imagine it being better with less seasoning.

 

[Python]

The automation and standardization at the 121 carriers is light years ahead of what I saw in the Navy, which is one of the reasons a junior CA can go out and fly 5 legs with the plug FO.

Granted, with p-8s everywhere and F-35s doing pointy nose things, maybe we'll catch up, but I also think I saw the AF planning to fly 135s and buffs fooooorrrrreeevvvvvvvvverrrrrrrr.

I would be sweating bullets with an 80 hour wonder as a rag IP. I was already stupid enough as a cat-1...can't imagine it being better with less seasoning.

From a VFA background I disagree a bit. A junior flight lead with a FNG wingman has the same result as the 121 equivalent you describe, due to standardization. Standardization is a huge point of emphasis in VFA and I’ll even say there was a decrease when going to 121. Not a dick measuring contest, just an observation.

edit: 1000% with you on the automation piece.

 

[scoolbubba]

From a VFA background I disagree a bit. A junior flight lead with a FNG wingman has the same result as the 121 equivalent you describe, due to standardization. Standardization is a huge point of emphasis in VFA and I’ll even say there was a decrease when going to 121. Not a dick measuring contest, just an observation.

edit: 1000% with you on the automation piece.

There was a lot of bullshit techcedure floating around the MPRA fleet. I'll leave it at that.