COVID-19

[Brett327]

I will say the CDC, or our government, wasn’t truly prepared to deal with this sort of fast moving, evolving beast, and tried to address with hard science only what is really a sociology problem.

While we're at it, let's not discount the impact of an administration that, under the most charitable interpretation of events, put its head in the sand WRT COVID. The fact that a significant portion of the anti-vax sentiment in this country can be directly attributable to how that administration systematically downplayed the threat while undermining the vaccine has had a huge impact on the outcome.

I'm not saying that the current admin's response has been great, or that the folks at CDC haven't regularly stepped on their own dicks, but there's a wide gulf between now and 12 months ago. It didn't have to be like that.

 

[wink]

Based on our (in)ability to predict the 2008 crash or any other crash, and how the economy during the pandemic has defied lots of predictions, I’d have to disagree.

I was speaking of the dismal science having a better handle on human behavior. The cause of the 2008 crash had little to do with mass human behavior. And I disagree that economic behavior during the pandemic defied predictions. It was just that economic considerations were not ever in play. Public Heath trumped all else and the economic costs never made the front page.

The Covid virus not only was new with unexpected properties, it also has continually changed.

And so? That is what virtually every virus does. The common cold does so, as does the flu. How could mutations come as a surprise to the public heath establishment? I have been on the record form the beginning that the power players deserve a break for how the pandemic was handled very early on. Not a lot was known about it. BUT, mutations could be expected. Pandemic killing vaccinations was unlikely. The CDC knew that. That is why absolute statements and over confidence was exactly what the CDC should not have done. It cost them a lot of credibility if it wasn't already week. Their record over the past 10-15 years was wrong more than right. That many of their errors were essentially "false positives" is a relief, but it doesn't change that they got it wrong.

While we're at it, let's not discount the impact of an administration that, under the most charitable interpretation of events, put its head in the sand WRT COVID. The fact that a significant portion of the anti-vax sentiment in this country can be directly attributable to how that administration systematically downplayed the threat while undermining the vaccine has had a huge impact on the outcome.

Much to be critical of early handling by the last Administration. We would likely agree on much of it, such as Presidential tweets on the subject. And I can give them a break on some mis-steps as mentioned above. BUT, have to disagree they put their heads in the sand. Approving the appropriation of a shit ton of money to include various relief plans, travel bans to Asia, Operation Warp Speed, shutting down the country, mobilizing the National Guard and sending military help to include hospital ships was not head in the sand responses. You can argue the relative effectiveness of anything they did, but you cannot say they put their heads in the sand and did nothing.

I'm not saying that the current admin's response has been great, or that the folks at CDC haven't regularly stepped on their own dicks, but there's a wide gulf between now and 12 months ago. It didn't have to be like that.

We agree, but probably for different reasons. Off the top of my head, can not think of much the current administration has done but try and use the pandemic as an excuse to pass costly unrelated legislation. There are the free Covid tests being mailed to certain Americans, if they can find any to send out. Don't get me wrong. With he exception of using the pandemic to push Build Back, I am OK with the fact they have done little more than was in place. I'll even give them a pass on the availability of tests they are pushing so hard. But to say on the other side of the gulf that is 12 months is a better more active response than the last Administration is a stretch.

 

[Brett327]

disagree they put their heads in the sand

They certainly did at the outset. I could list a dozen statements by DJT about how the numbers were going to magically go down, or that it would disappear when the Wx got warmer, etc, etc. Then, the bizarre parade of "alternative" cures, anti-mask, anti-vax, etc. The admin went out of its way to do the opposite of what could be considered an effective response. Yeah, warp speed happened, but let's not pretend that was the brainchild of anyone in the Whitehouse. Warp Speed threw billions at the vaccine producers, so of course that sped things along. I don't think it's unfair to say that the Trump admin's overall approach was to slow roll nearly every serious effort to combat the spread of COVID for reasons I still don't quite understand. Like I said, it didn't have to be like that, and you could argue that hundreds of thousands of Americans paid for it with their lives.

 

[taxi1]

And so? That is what virtually every virus does. The common cold does so, as does the flu. How could mutations come as a surprise to the public heath establishment?

Agreed, i’m saying, though, that comparing it to astronomy is disingenuous.

I work in decision making under uncertainty. There never was a slam-dunk answer to any of this, and any “this is the way it has to be” was always susceptible to immediatelt being overcome by events (new variant or new info) at any moment. It happened repeatedly.

I always knew that this was an evolving thing. I don’t know how to share that perspective with the rest of populace that is looking for certainude in a pandemic world that is akin to flying through a low valley with fog and no GPS. The CDC certainly didn’t get that message across.

 

[Randy Daytona]

I was speaking of the dismal science having a better handle on human behavior. The cause of the 2008 crash had little to do with mass human behavior. And I disagree that economic behavior during the pandemic defied predictions. It was just that economic considerations were not ever in play. Public Heath trumped all else and the economic costs never made the front page.

And so? That is what virtually every virus does. The common cold does so, as does the flu. How could mutations come as a surprise to the public heath establishment? I have been on the record form the beginning that the power players deserve a break for how the pandemic was handled very early on. Not a lot was known about it. BUT, mutations could be expected. Pandemic killing vaccinations was unlikely. The CDC knew that. That is why absolute statements and over confidence was exactly what the CDC should not have done. It cost them a lot of credibility if it wasn't already week. Their record over the past 10-15 years was wrong more than right. That many of their errors were essentially "false positives" is a relief, but it doesn't change that they got it wrong.

Much to be critical of early handling by the last Administration. We would likely agree on much of it, such as Presidential tweets on the subject. And I can give them a break on some mis-steps as mentioned above. BUT, have to disagree they put their heads in the sand. Approving the appropriation of a shit ton of money to include various relief plans, travel bans to Asia, Operation Warp Speed, shutting down the country, mobilizing the National Guard and sending military help to include hospital ships was not head in the sand responses. You can argue the relative effectiveness of anything they did, but you cannot say they put their heads in the sand and did nothing.

We agree, but probably for different reasons. Off the top of my head, can not think of much the current administration has done but try and use the pandemic as an excuse to pass costly unrelated legislation. There are the free Covid tests being mailed to certain Americans, if they can find any to send out. Don't get me wrong. With he exception of using the pandemic to push Build Back, I am OK with the fact they have done little more than was in place. I'll even give them a pass on the availability of tests they are pushing so hard. But to say on the other side of the gulf that is 12 months is a better more active response than the last Administration is a stretch.

I believe Europe tried to negotiate prices and be cost efficient and it bit them hard. The US threw a metric butt ton of money at the problem and got multiple vaccines that work.

 

[wink]

They certainly did at the outset. I could list a dozen statements by DJT about how the numbers were going to magically go down, or that it would disappear when the Wx got warmer, etc, etc. Then, the bizarre parade of "alternative" cures, anti-mask, anti-vax, etc. The admin went out of its way to do the opposite of what could be considered an effective response. Yeah, warp speed happened, but let's not pretend that was the brainchild of anyone in the Whitehouse. Warp Speed threw billions at the vaccine producers, so of course that sped things along. I don't think it's unfair to say that the Trump admin's overall approach was to slow roll nearly every serious effort to combat the spread of COVID for reasons I still don't quite understand. Like I said, it didn't have to be like that, and you could argue that hundreds of thousands of Americans paid for it with their lives.

Well now you have narrowed the period of "head in the sand" to "outset". Shit, no one knew what was going on then. Everyone had an opinion, and like the proverbial monkey in front of a typewriter spelling a word, someone had to be right eventually. Lots of smart people were wrong. That is why I give a pass to many for less effective efforts. Claims/hope of summer season relief was not unfounded in the least. That is what Covid's closest cousins do. Wrong, but not due to politics or stupidity. We will just have to disagree on slow rolling, how to share credit for warp speed and what was an acceptable degree of error due to imperfect information at the "outset." We will have to be satisfied with agreeing on nonsense tweets being unhelpful to the overall effort.

 

[Brett327]

Shit, no one knew what was going on then

You're being extraordinarily generous here. It's fascinating to me that someone as smart as you can take such an "aww shucks" approach to the best example of complete government malpractice in our lifetimes. I'm a bit shocked, frankly... a little bit.

 

[wink]

You're being extraordinarily generous here. It's fascinating to me that someone as smart as you can take such an "aww shucks" approach to the best example of complete government malpractice in our lifetimes. I'm a bit shocked, frankly... a little bit.

I kinda think there is a compliment in there, in an expecting a pony in a pile of shit way ? .

Seriously tho, I think you are letting hindsight drive your point of view a bit...a little bit.

 

[Spekkio]

Well now you have narrowed the period of "head in the sand" to "outset". Shit, no one knew what was going on then. Everyone had an opinion, and like the proverbial monkey in front of a typewriter spelling a word, someone had to be right eventually. Lots of smart people were wrong. That is why I give a pass to many for less effective efforts. Claims/hope of summer season relief was not unfounded in the least. That is what Covid's closest cousins do. Wrong, but not due to politics or stupidity. We will just have to disagree on slow rolling, how to share credit for warp speed and what was an acceptable degree of error due to imperfect information at the "outset." We will have to be satisfied with agreeing on nonsense tweets being unhelpful to the overall effort.

You're being extraordinarily generous here. It's fascinating to me that someone as smart as you can take such an "aww shucks" approach to the best example of complete government malpractice in our lifetimes. I'm a bit shocked, frankly... a little bit.

Trump had poor communication skills, which is why he isn't president right now.

However, saying he is responsible for the best example of complete government malpractice is hyperbole. There isn't a single politician in the U.S. who, in Feb-Mar 2020, would have told the public "yeah, there's a disease out there that's going to kill 3/4 of a million people by next year. You're all fucked."

In hindsight, the biggest mistake is government-mandated shutdowns and masks that were a futile attempt to protect people over 50. Now 40-60% of the population is afraid of the COVID boogyman, to include several nursing and teachers unions throughout the nation who still refuse to work because they think that it's too dangerous. An entire generation of children has missed 2 years of schooling and counting because anytime a kid has the sniffles, 1/4-1/2 the class is told to quarantine. The ripple effects from these bad policies will be felt for decades.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

An entire generation of children has missed 2 years of schooling and counting because anytime a kid has the sniffles, 1/4-1/2 the class is told to quarantine. The ripple effects from these bad policies will be felt for decades.

Not to mention important events in their school career such as graduations, proms, etc..... schools have policies in place for COVID but they are being applied arbitrarily. A kid on the football team comes up positive yet they only single out one player as being a "close contact" because if they went by the actual definition they would have had to cancel homecoming. A kid in a class has all the symptoms of COVID but because the parents don't get him tested he only needs to be out for X days, but another student in another class has the same symptoms gets positive test the entire class goes home.

There is one student we know who has racked up 40 some days of missed school since September due to keep getting tagged with "close contact".

 

[Tycho_Brohe]

Not to mention important events in their school career such as graduations, proms, etc..... schools have policies in place for COVID but they are being applied arbitrarily. A kid on the football team comes up positive yet they only single out one player as being a "close contact" because if they went by the actual definition they would have had to cancel homecoming. A kid in a class has all the symptoms of COVID but because the parents don't get him tested he only needs to be out for X days, but another student in another class has the same symptoms gets positive test the entire class goes home.

There is one student we know who has racked up 40 some days of missed school since September due to keep getting tagged with "close contact".

 

[CWO_change]

I was speaking of the dismal science having a better handle on human behavior. The cause of the 2008 crash had little to do with mass human behavior. And I disagree that economic behavior during the pandemic defied predictions. It was just that economic considerations were not ever in play. Public Heath trumped all else and the economic costs never made the front page.

And so? That is what virtually every virus does. The common cold does so, as does the flu. How could mutations come as a surprise to the public heath establishment? I have been on the record form the beginning that the power players deserve a break for how the pandemic was handled very early on. Not a lot was known about it. BUT, mutations could be expected. Pandemic killing vaccinations was unlikely. The CDC knew that. That is why absolute statements and over confidence was exactly what the CDC should not have done. It cost them a lot of credibility if it wasn't already week. Their record over the past 10-15 years was wrong more than right. That many of their errors were essentially "false positives" is a relief, but it doesn't change that they got it wrong.

Much to be critical of early handling by the last Administration. We would likely agree on much of it, such as Presidential tweets on the subject. And I can give them a break on some mis-steps as mentioned above. BUT, have to disagree they put their heads in the sand. Approving the appropriation of a shit ton of money to include various relief plans, travel bans to Asia, Operation Warp Speed, shutting down the country, mobilizing the National Guard and sending military help to include hospital ships was not head in the sand responses. You can argue the relative effectiveness of anything they did, but you cannot say they put their heads in the sand and did nothing.

We agree, but probably for different reasons. Off the top of my head, can not think of much the current administration has done but try and use the pandemic as an excuse to pass costly unrelated legislation. There are the free Covid tests being mailed to certain Americans, if they can find any to send out. Don't get me wrong. With he exception of using the pandemic to push Build Back, I am OK with the fact they have done little more than was in place. I'll even give them a pass on the availability of tests they are pushing so hard. But to say on the other side of the gulf that is 12 months is a better more active response than the last Administration is a stretch.

I agree. That was the narrative pushed by some, but it didn't mesh with the actual reality on the ground. The messaging was long serious, but just not doomsday. From the Covid Task Force regular meetings and press conferences where people were encouraged to stay indoors, socially distance, wear masks to shutting down travel from China in the face of others calling such a move "xenophobic" to signing legislation providing for much-needed economic relief to out-of-work Americans to enabling and establishing Operation Warp Speed to quickly produce a vaccine to mobilizing the DoD to help fight this pandemic in the hardest hit areas to taking steps to shut down the country to help mitigate the spread of the disease, I find it hard to say that the administration put their heads in the sand.

Note, on messaging generally, we heard different things initially from everyone based on what was initially known about the virus. Heck, Fauci himself earlier on was discounting some of the models of COVID deaths based on the steps that people were taking with the shut downs, social distancing, etc. No where did I hear from the administration that COVID was not a serious issue or that people shouldn't take it seriously. Now, what I did hear was that we will get to the end of this and that the pandemic won't be victorious against us (in sane times, people would call that optimism . . . I remember the media lambasting the administration when DJT's approval ratings were briefly increasing due to his press conferences smh), but that didn't take away from the seriousness of the overall messaging surrounding COVID.

But we also knew then and know now that COVID overwhelmingly affects some more than others, to include folks with comorbidities.

I also note that there are core traditional Democrat constituencies that aren't vaccinated today at high levels (for instance, it's 50% in the black community by non-conservative estimates . . . in my family alone, my brother and I are the only two of 8 people who are vaccinated, and he only got the vaccine so he could go the movies in NYC when the implemented the vaccine passport lol). That's not something you can blame on DJT or anyone in his administration, but I argue comes more from historical hesitancy among blacks concerning these things. Similarly, and an argument I also point out when talking about the issue of gun rights and the influence of orgs like the NRA--DJT is not his supporters. He is a conduit to carry the voice for his supporters, but his supporters have views that are independent of his and him taking a stand on certain issues isn't going to budge them. I note that Trump today has advocated for the vaccine (and has long advocated for it), but that isn't stopping many very conservative areas from also refusing to vaccinate at higher numbers; and, for crying aloud, the vaccine program was started under the administration of DJT.

 

[Flash]

I'm a big fan of Phil Greenspun...

Coronascience charts

A reader sent me the following Trust in Science page: The Spectator folks track the predictions of Science against actual outcomes. This is enabled by the fact that the UK rejected Science’s …

philip.greenspun.com

One thing that is interesting about Coronascience is how fragile it is and how dependent on suppression of criticism. Astronomers don’t need Facebook, Twitter, and Google to suppress speech from people who believe in astrology. Astronomy’s credibility comes from a track record of successful predictions, not from silencing dissent. After two years of what we are told is enormous progress in Coronascience, however, the predictive ability of those who call themselves “Scientists” is minimal and the public’s faith in “The Science” can be maintained only by banning from Twitter, Facebook, et al., those who point out apparent contradictions.

I remember reading that guy's blog well over a decade ago and thinking he was a whackadoodle then, starting right out of the gate by calling it "Coronascience" just confirms my initial read from years ago. It only gets better when he uses as an example of suppression of criticism, after using astronomy as the 'good example', that of a Congresswoman banned from Twitter who previously claimed that some wildfires were caused by lasers from satellites controlled by the Rothschilds.

Irony is lost on that guy.

 

[Mirage]

They certainly did at the outset. I could list a dozen statements by DJT about how the numbers were going to magically go down, or that it would disappear when the Wx got warmer, etc, etc. Then, the bizarre parade of "alternative" cures, anti-mask, anti-vax, etc. The admin went out of its way to do the opposite of what could be considered an effective response.

Fact check: this is utter nonsense.

Guess who said these things:
"There's no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you're in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it's not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is."

"These kinds of respiratory viruses tend to go down as you get into summer months."

Your lord and savior Dr. Fauci. You know, Trump's chief medical advisor. Wonder why Trump said similar things?

Others have pointed out the myriad of things Trump did to try and stop the spread of COVID.

 

[taxi1]

Fact check: this is utter nonsense.

February 7, to Woodward: “It goes through air, Bob. That’s always tougher than the touch. You know, the touch, you don’t have to touch things, right? But the air, you just breathe the air, and that’s how it’s passed. And so that’s a very tricky one, that’s a very delicate one. It’s also more deadly than your — you know, your, even your strenuous flus. … This is more deadly. This is five per — you know, this is five percent versus one percent and less than one percent. You know? So this is deadly stuff.”

January 30, in a speech: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.”

February 26, at a press conference: “When you have 15 people [infected by the coronavirus in the US], and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”

February 27, at a White House meeting: “It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

March 9, on Twitter: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”