NEWS Waterfront property in the Spratlys? Good investment or not?

[Randy Daytona]

Thought these were interesting.

France's Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier sets off for Asia
The carrier group is then scheduled to sail to Singapore via the Suez Canal to arrive in time for the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual international Asian security summit which begins on May 31, 2019. During its deployment, the battle group is expected to participate in maritime exercises with the Egyptian navy, the Indian navy and the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force.


A Rafale fighter jet lands on the Charles De Gaulle in the Mediterranean on Feb 7, 2019.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...e-aircraft-carrier-sets-off-for-asia-11314688
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...e-aircraft-carrier-sets-off-for-asia-11314688


Japan inks deal with Kongsberg for F-35 standoff missile
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/03/13/japan-inks-deal-with-kongsberg-for-f-35-standoff-missile/

 

[Randy Daytona]

But those tariffs sure seem to be working so far to balance out the trade deficit with China, don’t they?!

Perhaps some good news.

U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks Faster Than Expected in Win for Trump
The U.S. international trade deficit shrinks faster than expected in January, helping to alleviate concerns over President Donald Trump's economic policies after a surge in imports in December.
https://www.thestreet.com/markets/t...aster-than-expected-in-win-for-trump-14908433

US efforts to cut trade deficit show biggest win in almost a year
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/us-trade-deficit-reaches-51point15b-vs-57b-est.html


Speaking of China, just saw that China is increasing the use of coal which seems to be opposite of the general perception.

What Is Pushing China Back To Coal?
Data released by the Chinese energy bureau this week shows that the country added a whopping 194 million tonnes of coal mining capacity over the course of 2018. This revelation comes in direct contrast with China’s widely publicized promises to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, especially dirty coal, as well as specific avowals to do away with excess mining capacity.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/What-Is-Pushing-China-Back-To-Coal.html

 

[Flash]

Perhaps some good news.

U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks Faster Than Expected in Win for Trump
The U.S. international trade deficit shrinks faster than expected in January, helping to alleviate concerns over President Donald Trump's economic policies after a surge in imports in December.
https://www.thestreet.com/markets/t...aster-than-expected-in-win-for-trump-14908433

US efforts to cut trade deficit show biggest win in almost a year
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/us-trade-deficit-reaches-51point15b-vs-57b-est.html

One month ain't much, will have to wait at least a year to see if that holds.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Good read from STRATFOR on China's Navy and the South China Sea.

China's Military Modernization Push Remains a Work in Progress

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/chinas-military-modernization-push-remains-work-progress

 

[Hair Warrior]

Russian and US warships 'nearly collide' in 'dangerous' and 'unsafe' manoeuvring

An aerial image shows Russia's Admiral Vinogradov and America's USS Chancellorsville dangerously close to each other

www.mirror.co.uk

1) This RFN AO seems a little far for Russia. They are a blue water navy, but that water’s bluer than usual for the RFN. They’ve been showcasing their interest in the Pacific and alliances with the PLAN in recent years, and this is just further evidence.

2) Russia may have intended to create this at-sea event for messaging purposes, but we can’t rule out miscalculation/mistakes at the lower echelons (e.g. shitty RFN decision making on board the DDG).

3) Russia wouldn’t be operating in this area without tacit approval from Beijing/Manila, or at least a partial willingness to disregard their regional status in the ECS/Philippine Sea despite consequences.

4) I can’t help but notice this at-sea event took place 1-2 days after speculation on US-Philippine ties and a possible USN return to Subic Bay.

 

[Brett327]

Disagree with #3. Russia gives zero fucks about Manila or Beijing.

 

[Flash]

1) This RFN AO seems a little far for Russia. They are a blue water navy, but that water’s bluer than usual for the RFN. They’ve been showcasing their interest in the Pacific and alliances with the PLAN in recent years, and this is just further evidence.

Eh, not really.

3) Russia wouldn’t be operating in this area without tacit approval from Beijing/Manila, or at least a partial willingness to disregard their regional status in the ECS/Philippine Sea despite consequences.

What Brett already said, Russia doesn’t really give a shit what they might think.

4) I can’t help but notice this at-sea event took place 1-2 days after speculation on US-Philippine ties and a possible USN return to Subic Bay.

And I can’t help but notice that this goes in line with the general theme that the Russians are just plain assholes.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Saw 2 other items that seemed interesting.

From The South China Morning Post (which I am now starting to take a look at every day.)
Taiwan put on US defence department list of ‘countries’ in latest move likely to goad China

• The wording is an apparent break with Washington’s long-standing adherence to a one-China policy

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...ely-goad-beijing-us-defence-department-report

Also,
Germany’s military maneuvers

High ranking officials are contemplating sending a warship through the Taiwan Strait — joining the United States and France in challenging Beijing’s claims to what the West regards as an international waterway.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-military-maneuvers/

 

[Hair Warrior]

Disagree with #3. Russia gives zero fucks about Manila or Beijing.

Ok, we’ll disagree on that one. I think Russia gives at least 1 1/2 fucks about each country. Especially if they want to keep holding joint naval exercises with China or keep landing LRA/ conducting port calls in the Philippines.

Ref: https://www.businessinsider.com/her...self-a-major-player-in-chinas-backyard-2018-9

I think Russia knows, however, than neither Beijing nor Manila gives any fucks about Russia pestering and provoking the US military, anywhere globally. I think Beijing/Manila even approve.

 

[Flash]

It appears that China is expanding their real estate holdings beyond the South China Sea, with a Chinese state-owned enterprise signing a preliminary 75-year lease for the entire island of Tulagi (the same island we invaded in 1942) and the surrounding islands in the province for the development. The lease was signed in secret without the knowledge of island residents and only a few days after the Solomon Islands switched its diplomatic recognition from the Republic of China to the People's Republic of China.

 

[Pags]

It appears that China is expanding their real estate holdings beyond the South China Sea, with a Chinese state-owned enterprise signing a preliminary 75-year lease for the entire island of Tulagi (the same island we invaded in 1942) and the surrounding islands in the province for the development. The lease was signed in secret without the knowledge of island residents and only a few days after the Solomon Islands switched its diplomatic recognition from the Republic of China to the People's Republic of China.

Solomons were strategically important during WWII due to their proximity to the SLOC between US and AUS. Turns out the Solomons are still close to that SLOC and that SLOC is still important.

 

[Recovering LSO]

some humor from Twitter this morning:

BREAKING NEWS: @NBA to replace three-point line with a Nine-Dash-Line. Only Chinese born players will be allowed to cross it.

 

[xj220]

And LeBron James.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Really good couple of articles about China in Foreign Policy magazine.

China Has Two Paths to Global Domination

China Has Two Paths to Global Domination

And a lot is riding on whether Washington can figure out which strategy Beijing has chosen.

foreignpolicy.com

U.S. Falters in Bid to Replace Chinese Rare Earths
Despite new legislation, Washington won’t be delivering critical minerals needed for defense, high tech, and energy.

U.S. Falters in Bid to Replace Chinese Rare Earths

Despite new legislation, Washington won’t be delivering critical minerals needed for defense, high tech, and energy.

foreignpolicy.com

If former Vice President Biden wins the election, will be curious to see how China policy changes. My perception is that Biden is China friendly but Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer are much more hawkish. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[Hair Warrior]

If former Vice President Biden wins the election, will be curious to see how China policy changes. My perception is that Biden is China friendly but Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer are much more hawkish. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Whoever is the POTUS will win the foreign policy contest, and it’s not even close.

POTUS appoints SECSTATE, SECDEF, NSC, all ambassadors, trade representatives.

Trade policy and treaties don’t start in Congress: it merely ratifies them once the Executive Branch has signed it with foreign partners.