That's a little more in line with what I'm thinking, the actual average for AD and prior selectees is on par with the board average. What we're seeing on this forum are above average candidates throwing off numbers and making selection seem better than it actually is, for both prior and civilians applying the averages are skewed.
Before I got out, I had people tell me that I would have a better shot if I got out and reapplied than applying from inside while AD and here I am lol. I believe in the USAF the AD applicants are competing against themselves. So they said you'd have a better shot getting out and applying with 230 others on an equal playing field than to apply with 200 AD people for 30 slots against higher ranks and people with numerous mid to high level decorations. As lower enlisted, it would be nearly impossible to get a slot over an NCO or SNCO with more time in service (TIS).
We saw this with the USAF selecting the first enlisted RPA pilots, they restricted the application to E5 and higher. So even if you had a degree and pilot licenses, they didn't care. 30 pilots were selected from 200 applicants. The commissioning path was similar, I didn't want to stay in a career field I didn't like for who knows how many years for a 15% chance at getting picked up to be a pilot.
I'd take 25-50% selection rate on 230 applicants any day over that measly 15% while being active USAF.