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COVID-19

JTS11

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
Go to bed dude. You aren’t going to convince anyone here that a shitter pilot isn’t retarded.

Maybe so, but I could always land on a boat without some dickhead in the tower telling me to check my water switches every 10 seconds.
 

Sonog

Well-Known Member
pilot
So the goal was to not overwhelm the ERs and the ICUs...


Not sure what you're getting at here, elective surgeries have been non existent the past month. Where is the surprise? How many ICUs does the Mayo Clinic run?
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
Not sure what you're getting at here, elective surgeries have been non existent the past month. Where is the surprise? How many ICUs does the Mayo Clinic run?
If you keep reading on in the article it talks about how hospitals failing and having to shut down is a possible outcome of this. Despite what you’re seeing on the news, what happened in NYC isn’t happening many other places in the country.

“Hospitals across the country have deferred or canceled non-urgent surgeries to free up bed space and equipment for covid-19 patients. But that triage maneuver cut off a main source of income, causing huge losses that have forced some hospitals to let go of health-care workers as they struggle to treat infected patients."

 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Not sure what you're getting at here, elective surgeries have been non existent the past month. Where is the surprise? How many ICUs does the Mayo Clinic run?
It isn't hard. If a hospital is losing money and is reducing capacity, then it can't have been overwhelmed by COVID patients. That was a fear. Predicted to happen and it didn't. So that goal of mitigation has worked. We now know we have excess capacity for a second wave or surge whether from relaxing mitigation or other reasons.
 

Jim123

DD-214 in hand and I'm gonna party like it's 1998
pilot
It isn't hard. If a hospital is losing money and is reducing capacity, then it can't have been overwhelmed by COVID patients. That was a fear. Predicted to happen and it didn't. So that goal of mitigation has worked. We now know we have excess capacity for a second wave or surge whether from relaxing mitigation or other reasons.
and treatment is better today than it was 1-2 months ago.

We don't have to be as aggressive with our collective methods of flattening the curve for two reasons- we know how high is "too high" for the curve, i.e. we have more accurate modeling to predict how much health care capacity we'll need, and that supposed maximum height of the curve is higher than it was a couple months ago, that is to say we have better treatment methods.

There's still a lot to learn but the overall picture is nowhere near as unclear nor as bleak as it was in mid-March.
 
D

Deleted member 24525

Guest
It isn't hard. If a hospital is losing money and is reducing capacity, then it can't have been overwhelmed by COVID patients. That was a fear. Predicted to happen and it didn't. So that goal of mitigation has worked. We now know we have excess capacity for a second wave or surge whether from relaxing mitigation or other reasons.
It wasn’t fear. It was preparation. And in some states like New York, Connecticut, Michigan, it was necessary.
and treatment is better today than it was 1-2 months ago.

We don't have to be as aggressive with our collective methods of flattening the curve for two reasons- we know how high is "too high" for the curve, i.e. we have more accurate modeling to predict how much health care capacity we'll need, and that supposed maximum height of the curve is higher than it was a couple months ago, that is to say we have better treatment methods.

There's still a lot to learn but the overall picture is nowhere near as unclear nor as bleak as it was in mid-March.

The fog of war is definitely lifting. Mitigation has certainly worked. 58k dead in 8 weeks. Think about what would’ve happened if we didn’t do this-and I’m not talking about the essential business argument -I’m talking about large gatherings-shutting down sports/concerts/festivals/churches etc. it would’ve been much worse. In the US, We’ve already approached in 8 weeks what the flu did last year in 21 weeks.
 

ABMD

Bullets don't fly without Supply
Not sure what you're getting at here, elective surgeries have been non existent the past month. Where is the surprise? How many ICUs does the Mayo Clinic run?

My wife works in the GOR, General OR, and hasn't worked in over a month (her income doesn't factor into our operating budget). Guess what, her hospital hasn't been overrun. Last I heard was they had maybe 2 patients on ventilators and this is a large hospital in the Baltimore/DC area. Like I said before, most positive cases are recovering at home. Time to start lifting some of these restrictions. If you're a parent can you imagine having to take your kid to a hospital today and being told you can't go with him/her? They would have to physically restrain me if they told me I couldn't go with one of my kids. My neighbor took his wife to the hospital for chest pains (she has high BP) and he had to wait in his car in the parking lot!

I also have a friend that just told me he has been diagnosed with COVID19, upper 30's fairly health with no preexisting conditions that I know of. He is home right now.
 

wiseguy04

The Dude abides....
pilot
If you keep reading on in the article it talks about how hospitals failing and having to shut down is a possible outcome of this. Despite what you’re seeing on the news, what happened in NYC isn’t happening many other places in the country.

“Hospitals across the country have deferred or canceled non-urgent surgeries to free up bed space and equipment for covid-19 patients. But that triage maneuver cut off a main source of income, causing huge losses that have forced some hospitals to let go of health-care workers as they struggle to treat infected patients."


And I fear that this “COVID-19 at all costs” approach taken by hospitals is going to have dangerous 2nd and 3rd order effects.

Cancer patients are not getting much needed chemotherapy. Brain surgery is being put off. Many other ailments that could have been addressed with a simple treatment have been pushed to the right and will now require full-blown surgery. This is going to cause problems down the road.

Hopefully health officials have learned from this and won’t overreact with the next round of flu. New York City is not the entire country.
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
Hopefully health officials have learned from this and won’t overreact with the next round of flu. New York City is not the entire country.
A successful response to a pandemic is indistinguishable from an overreaction. Hard to walk that line. NYC shows us what happens when you under-react.

The testing shitshow unfortunately had us flying blind into this storm. Still does.

Here's the thing...this isn't The Big One. That one is coming someday, inevitably. As contagious as COVID and more deadly. If our medical response depends on hospitals who depend on streams of colonoscopies, dialyses, and tummy tucks to stay in business, we are going to be even more skuh-rewed. If access to pandemic treatment depends on your health insurance attained through the job you just got laid off from, we are going to be even more skuh-rewed.

Viruses mutate. This could turn into that. Hopefully COVID19 won't.
 

FrankTheTank

Professional Pot Stirrer
pilot
A successful response to a pandemic is indistinguishable from an overreaction. Hard to walk that line. NYC shows us what happens when you under-react.

The testing shitshow unfortunately had us flying blind into this storm. Still does.

Here's the thing...this isn't The Big One. That one is coming someday, inevitably. As contagious as COVID and more deadly. If our medical response depends on hospitals who depend on streams of colonoscopies, dialyses, and tummy tucks to stay in business, we are going to be even more skuh-rewed. If access to pandemic treatment depends on your health insurance attained through the job you just got laid off from, we are going to be even more skuh-rewed.

Viruses mutate. This could turn into that. Hopefully COVID19 won't.
Yet... The sun rises and sets everyday... We can’t live in a bubble. Pauly Shore already tried that. ?
 

wiseguy04

The Dude abides....
pilot
A successful response to a pandemic is indistinguishable from an overreaction. Hard to walk that line. NYC shows us what happens when you under-react.

The testing shitshow unfortunately had us flying blind into this storm. Still does.

Here's the thing...this isn't The Big One. That one is coming someday, inevitably. As contagious as COVID and more deadly. If our medical response depends on hospitals who depend on streams of colonoscopies, dialyses, and tummy tucks to stay in business, we are going to be even more skuh-rewed. If access to pandemic treatment depends on your health insurance attained through the job you just got laid off from, we are going to be even more skuh-rewed.

Viruses mutate. This could turn into that. Hopefully COVID19 won't.

Flattening the curve in the beginning (2-3 weeks) is appropriate. Flattening the curve indefinitely (6+ weeks?!) in areas with only a few cases is an overreaction, and is causing more harm than good.

Health officials predicted hospitals being overrun, and in 90% of the country that NEVER happened.

And elective surgeries are a lucrative business, always have been, which is why they’re a significant source of revenue. That’s not going to change anytime soon.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
It wasn’t fear. It was preparation. And in some states like New York, Connecticut, Michigan, it was necessary.
No one really prepares for any eventuality unless the outcome without prep is undesirable. In the case of this virus, FEAR drove everything. Fear of a million deaths, fear of overwhelming hospitals, fear of infecting care givers. You can't have watched the news or heard a single briefing without knowing this. Proper preparation can reduce fear of outcome. But the desire to avoid the undesirable outcome drives the prep. And in this case it most certainly was accompanied by fear.
A successful response to a pandemic is indistinguishable from an overreaction. Hard to walk that line. NYC shows us what happens when you under-react.
I get your point. In terms of pure results on the pandemic front, you are right. But an overreaction includes the excessive expenditures of resources and opportunity loss costs. Measurement of those at this time is difficult. But they can be measured in time and the delta between the minimum required for success and the cost of overreaction is a waste and harmful, even to the pandemic effort. I suppose the analogy would be logistics in war time. Huge amounts of waste, often for reasonable contingencies, many times not. But that waste redirects resources that could be used elsewhere.
 
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