COVID-19

[exNavyOffRec]

Maybe it's only my state, MD, but I thought they were only testing people who had symptoms AND a note from their Dr saying they needed a test. There is no need to test the world, except to increase the sample size for statistics.

To me, this is the same as "flattening the curve". If we have everyone tested today, A) we don't have enough tests, and B) it will take forever to get results back. If you spread out testing, you don't get ahead of supply (tests) and don't overwhelm the labs and those that really need the tests/results will get them in a timely manner (those that are displaying symptoms and confirmed by their Dr.)

WA is pretty easy, you tell the doc via phone if you had one of the symptoms they give you an authorization and you get tested, one of my friends sons threw up at work, they sent him home, he made a phone call to his doc, drove to test site and 2 days later back at work. The time back on the test varies around here, the closest place for me people are saying is the slowest, drive another 10 miles and it is 2 day turn around.

 

[Deleted member 24525]

The President is limited by the Constitution. Allowing him to issue stay at home orders and enforce it with federal police would have our founding fathers rolling in their graves.

I agree with you 100%. It would’ve been BAD if trump wanted to do this.not the right answer.
You have to let the states do it BUT Where I take issue is when he tweeted shit like “Liberate Michigan” “liberate Minnesota”. NO. You wanted to let them handle it, then let them handle it.

 

[ChuckMK23]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/bil...esults-make-them-a-complete-waste-insane.html

 

[Jim123]

go up to FL80 and 4.0 Mach.

Did you mean 800 or 80?

 

[Pags]

Did you mean 800 or 80?

The one that is way up high (either is way up high to a former Helo guy who doesn't fly anymore ?)

 

[wink]

Agreed they aren't perfect analogies. But you have experts saying that what we have is a lot like fire and we know that fire burns so maybe we shouldn't just jam our face in there right away.

To the airplane analogy this a lot like a new airplane. We know how old airplanes handle and where the risks are. Now we have something new that the experts have never seen. In flight test you get from unknown to known by moving through test points that gradually open your envelope. Sure, the CTR made an airplane that they said can go up to FL80 and 4.0 Mach. On the first flight of that new aircraft you don't just go to FL80 and 4.0 Mach. You first do a bunch of ground runs. Then some taxi test to make sure the wheels don't shimmy off at V1-3kts. Then some flight with the gear down to make sure the wings work at low speed. Then you pull the gear and go a bit faster and a bit higher. All this time you're using models to compare observed performance to predicted performance. In many cases the models are wrong because you can't make a perfect mode (no matter what the modelers tell you). If an observation is off of the model then we need to update the models and likely update the flight test plan to add more flights for data collection and discovery to help the team understand why the behavior is different. This is a hugely frustrating exercise in reality even to leadership that works in the field of aircraft development because it can ruin schedules and decisions that were made before all the data was in.

Right now the entire world is going through a flight test. Pretending like it's not an issue or blaming some group for screwing up a model is just admiring the problem. Just like in flight test, things go best when people admit there's a problem, understand the problem, make a solution to the problem, and try it out. Yes, that can be a long time but it's always shorter and less painful then the "deny the issue and press" option.

I agree. And if you have a new aircraft currently going through a test program, you would not be promulgating final operating procedures let alone tactics. I have always thought we were just winging it, virus wise. Sometimes they hit the target dead on. Other times they are way off. That is why I no longer pay much attention to the science as it breaks. Tomorrow there will be a study saying something different. It may be because the previously held position was just BS to begin with, or it may be superseded by new knowledge. Sometimes we don't even know. Just another expert doing his expert thing and I am supposed to buy in.

 

[Pags]

I agree. And if you have a new aircraft currently going through a test program, you would not be promulgating final operating procedures let alone tactics. I have always thought we were just winging it, virus wise. Sometimes they hit the target dead on. Other times they are way off. That is why I no longer pay much attention to the science as it breaks. Tomorrow there will be a study saying something different. It may be because the previously held position was just BS to begin with, or it may be superseded by new knowledge. Sometimes we don't even know. Just another expert doing his expert thing and I am supposed to buy in.

To continue the analogy I'd kind of agree with you if we're talking a new aircraft with only a few in existence that only impacts a small user community. However, since all of humanity is along for the ride in this "flight test" we can't keep people in the dark until we know the right answer. In this case I think a "draft NATOPS" or "draft TTP" is better than no guidance at all. Personally I think at this point the govt needs to add some marketing folks to the mix to translate from scientist to joe six pack so that the highly stilted language of the CDC and experts can be made more digestible and actionable to the average American.

 

[wink]

Personally I think at this point the govt needs to add some marketing folks to the mix to translate from scientist to joe six pack so that the highly stilted language of the CDC and experts can be made more digestible and actionable to the average American.

Sounds like some Madison Avenue types could be volunteering their talent here.

 

[FinkUFreaky]

Guys, the origin of Covid-19 was solved back on march 28th if you've paid any attention:

 

[taxi1]

Good video on efficacy of masks

 

[Spekkio]

I agree with you 100%. It would’ve been BAD if trump wanted to do this.not the right answer.
You have to let the states do it BUT Where I take issue is when he tweeted shit like “Liberate Michigan” “liberate Minnesota”. NO. You wanted to let them handle it, then let them handle it.

There are several states that meet criteria by all publicly available models to fully open back to normal, including schools, because they were hit early and hard (PFR > 0.06%). Most notably Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland and DC, Michigan, Illinois, and South Carolina. I'm sure I'm missing a few.

It's telling that not one governor is willing to pull that trigger, especially on education.

 

[taxi1]

It's what is going on in the other parts of the country that is giving them pause. Even if its not the flow of people, it still impacts resources to open up.

For example, access to lots of rapid testing is a necessary precondition.

 

[Spekkio]

It's what is going on in the other parts of the country that is giving them pause. Even if its not the flow of people, it still impacts resources to open up.

Other parts of the country have one half to one quarter the PFR of the states I listed.

What 'resources' are you talking about?

For example, access to lots of rapid testing is a necessary precondition.

No, it isn't.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

The pearl clutching over schools is shameful. In most places young kids are still in daycare, but OMG school is too scary. High school and college students have mostly been behaving like typical high school and college students all summer but OMG it’s scary if they come back to school.

The data points to re-opening schools. The experts, doctors, CDC, etc favor opening schools. Other countries have reopened or never even closed schools and it was a non event. But still, STILL we have people quivering in fear about schools opening. Of course it probably has more to do with political finger pointing, like taxi1 shows us every day.

 

[scoolbubba]

The local public servants union crying at a school board meeting in full hazmat gear might have spread it on a bit thick.