Yuck... Big, scary red dots ?
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COVID-19
- Thread starter Treetop Flyer
- Start date
If you zoom in they get way smaller! Antarctica seems to be doing good though.
If you look at the individual as the patient, diagnosing positive allows you to quarantine and better monitor, whereas if it is just the flu, you don't need as many precautions.
If you look at the community as the patient, then even a noisy test (plenty of errors) can contain lots of information. If the false positive rate is known and even if it is high, you can sample the population and if the positive measurements are above the expected rate due to false positives, you know you have a spread of the virus even if you can't say for sure by individual. Then you put into place community policies like shelter in place, heavier testing, etc.
Even data like this from a smart thermometer company provides actionable intelligence, if only on where to direct the next level of scrutiny. Click the 'atypical` button and look at Florida. It compares current rate of fevers with what would be expected without COVID-19.
ABMD
Bullets don't fly without Supply
I've been tracking this site for the last 3 weeks, and keeping records (screenshots) for the last 2. Interesting to see how fast things have spread. They now have data down to the county in the US.
March 12: Total Confirmed - 127,749 (Globally)
Total Confirmed USA - 1,323
Total Deaths - 4,717
Total Recovered - 68,307
March 24: Total Confirmed - 387,382 (Globally)
Total Confirmed USA - 46,450
Total Deaths - 16,767
Total Recovered - 101,987
I haven't been able to get into the site today.
Here's the github for the raw data, suitable for sucking into Excel and diddling with. Both daily updates and the entire time histories.
The false positive rate for the approved nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT) is likely low. Therefore, a positive test pretty reliably confirms the diagnosis. That feature makes NAAT a good diagnostic test, but a less than optimal screening test. Using NAAT as the confirmation test on people with respiratory symptoms seems like the best use of a limited and expensive resource.
The Chinese experience suggests that in the early stages of the epidemic, a large number of infections were due to asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic individuals infecting several others prior to diagnosis. I have no reason to believe a different dynamic is in play throughout the rest of the world. So, by the time someone rolls up to the drive in testing station and tests positive, they have likely been infectious for several days before that. Locking them down at that point will be helpful in avoiding additional transmission, but that begs the question of how often do you test asymptomatic individuals, knowing that your available test may not do a good job of finding cases with low, but not zero, viral loads?
As shown, a less specific, more sensitive test, like "fever" lends valuable population based information, and can prompt affected individuals and communities to pull the string a bit to see what's going on.
One piece of good news is that serologic testing is coming on line in a research setting. That should help answer a lot of questions as it matures.
V/R
The Chinese experience suggests that in the early stages of the epidemic, a large number of infections were due to asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic individuals infecting several others prior to diagnosis. I have no reason to believe a different dynamic is in play throughout the rest of the world. So, by the time someone rolls up to the drive in testing station and tests positive, they have likely been infectious for several days before that. Locking them down at that point will be helpful in avoiding additional transmission, but that begs the question of how often do you test asymptomatic individuals, knowing that your available test may not do a good job of finding cases with low, but not zero, viral loads?
As shown, a less specific, more sensitive test, like "fever" lends valuable population based information, and can prompt affected individuals and communities to pull the string a bit to see what's going on.
One piece of good news is that serologic testing is coming on line in a research setting. That should help answer a lot of questions as it matures.
V/R
I'm betting a $3K test is many orders of magnitude cheaper than a full treatment regimen for a patient who got it because we didn't test a previous one, and he infected other people. Or the economic impact of a full-on lock down.
We need to move past "limited" with our testing capability and not worry about the "expensive". That's not where to save our money.
It was a huge failure not to get the testing spun up ASAP once we knew COVID-19 was out and about.
'18 Atlas. Wish my Alltrack had it. Can't recommend the Atlas enough for anyone else out there who (1) has too many kids, and (2) wife refuses to drive a minivan. I'll be towing ~2,000 lb from SD to Pax with it next week.
'Game-changer': Britain days away from releasing millions of coronavirus finger-prick tests
The UK is "days" away from releasing 3.5 million self-administered finger prick tests, available for purchase online or at pharmacies, that could prove a game-changer in easing the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
This is encouraging. There’s wide ranging speculation about how many who have been infected with no symptoms or very mild symptoms.
Great work with the information available, for sure. The challenge with using this number, though, is that it depends on what is released as the individual’s cause of death. For example, with so many patients having other complications/comorbidity, are the deaths attributed to COVID-19 or to other complications from emphysema, pneumonia, heart disease, etc. instead? There’s benefit in attributing the cause to something other than COVID-19 for managing the narrative for sure.
Look, all I know is I'm sending this amazing fake news story, custom made by yours truly, to my three college buddies flying for JetBlue. I wonder if my seniority will be higher than theirs after the takeover. Feel free to redistribute to your own JetBlue friends! ????
