COVID-19

[SlickAg]

Doesn’t the area under the yellow curve (the integral) represent job creation since 2008? Seems like another misleading graph but you’ve got a pretty good track record and I’m sure you vet your sources and aren’t a sycophant or anything...

Tell you what bro, you find me a graph you believe. You must have a lot of free time waiting in the haircut line.

Fact: unemployment claims have gone past 20 million. President Obama created 16 million jobs during his 8 years. So, that math makes sense to me.

Sorry the woke graph was so misleading for you.

 

[SlickAg]

If he is continuing to listen to his chief medical advisor and she recommends it, I don't see an issue. Like I've said several times in this thread, I'll listen and heed the experts.

As for the 'panic', I think that is overblowing it a bit.

See I don’t see how a solution that involves shutting down the economy anywhere from for over 60 days up to “we don’t know” is a logical response. Instead it’s an irrational one stemming from panic and fear.

 

[taxi1]

Here's my prediction.

We'll go "back to work" before we have the mechanisms in place to control the virus. Some of the back to work will be governments letting us, others will be people just doing it because they have to.

But a lot people are going to keep their distance and not go into crowded places anyway, so airlines and restaurants and sporting events will not bounce back much if at all. They will continue to suffer. It won't be a 'V'

Once we return to out and about, there's about a two week lag before the new rounds of COVID-19 make their way through the communities to the hospitals. Not even New York City is close to herd immunity. Lots of sick people.

But I think the medical community is learning a lot right now about how to manage this. They are learning techniques to use instead of ventilators, and are exploring drugs and serums. Also, masks and PPE should slow the spread and reduce the dosing, which (fingers crossed) will reduce the severity. I predict huge surge in PAPRs for PPE. All of the people in the meat plants should be using them.

We will be under the cloud of this thing through Christmas.

See how this ages...

 

[robav8r]

But a lot people are going to keep their distance and not go into crowded places anyway, so airlines and restaurants and sporting events will not bounce back much if at all.

Concur. Human nature will maintain social distancing long after the government says it's "OK" to go back to normal. Smart customer service establishments are hopefully already looking at ways to keep customers safely apart, while maximizing cash flow . . .

 

[Pags]

See I don’t see how a solution that involves shutting down the economy anywhere from for over 60 days up to “we don’t know” is a logical response. Instead it’s an irrational one stemming from panic and fear.

Both responses are stemming from panic and fear. One about physical health of Americans and one about financial health of Americans.

 

[Pags]

Concur. Human nature will maintain social distancing long after the government says it's "OK" to go back to normal. Smart customer service establishments are hopefully already looking at ways to keep customers safely apart, while maximizing cash flow . . .

I think some of this is we'll remember as a society how to deal with disease. That will be something we haven't had to do in 50yrs since widespread immunization has largely removed the threat of all thing things my Boomer parents grew up with like polio, measles, mumps, rubella, TB, various pieces, etc to say nothing of the risk my grandparents grew up with.

 

[Ken_gone_flying]

Here's my prediction.

We'll go "back to work" before we have the mechanisms in place to control the virus. Some of the back to work will be governments letting us, others will be people just doing it because they have to.

But a lot people are going to keep their distance and not go into crowded places anyway, so airlines and restaurants and sporting events will not bounce back much if at all. They will continue to suffer. It won't be a 'V'

Once we return to out and about, there's about a two week lag before the new rounds of COVID-19 make their way through the communities to the hospitals. Not even New York City is close to herd immunity. Lots of sick people.

But I think the medical community is learning a lot right now about how to manage this. They are learning techniques to use instead of ventilators, and are exploring drugs and serums. Also, masks and PPE should slow the spread and reduce the dosing, which (fingers crossed) will reduce the severity. I predict huge surge in PAPRs for PPE. All of the people in the meat plants should be using them.

We will be under the cloud of this thing through Christmas.

See how this ages...

I’ll make my prediction too. I think states slowly start loosening restrictions and start getting their people back to work over the course of May and June. I think by July 1st, the entire country is back to work. But most of the country will be back to work by the end of May. I don’t think we’ll see a big second wave like you’re predicting. I think California is already at or getting very close to herd immunity. There are only 27,575 cases and 947 deaths in a state with 40,000,000 people. That leads me to believe there is a significant portion of that population that had already been infected and never knew it.

I think the airlines will be back up to about 50% capacity starting in July. I think you’ll see the unemployment rate drop significantly month by month starting in July as companies start recalling furloughed workers and rehiring after they were forced to lay off their workers.

As far has large venues such as sports, I think the next time we see mostly full stadiums will be baseball opening day, next spring.

 

[SlickAg]

Both responses are stemming from panic and fear. One about physical health of Americans and one about financial health of America.

FIFY.

No panic involved, but yes, I do fear for our country and way of life.

 

[SlickAg]

I think some of this is we'll remember as a society how to deal with disease. That will be something we haven't had to do in 50yrs since widespread immunization has largely removed the threat of all thing things my Boomer parents grew up with like polio, measles, mumps, rubella, TB, various pieces, etc to say nothing of the risk my grandparents grew up with.

So you’ve just made a great argument for why this may not be as big of a deal as it’s being made out to be. It isn’t totally unprecedented in our history. But it IS totally unprecedented in the age of Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and 24 hours news channels.

 

[HAL Pilot]

 

[Deleted member 24525]

FIFY.

No panic involved, but yes, I do fear for our country and way of life.

Our way of life is killing Americans-heart disease, diabetes, sleep deprivation. People working 60-70 hour work weeks -their spouses too.
But we’ve been producing! And consuming! And buying more shit we don’t need! And making poor food and lifestyle choices, and drinking too much.
I like the IDEA of the American Way of Life. But in some of those ways, I wish we could go back to the 1950s.

 

[Flash]

See I don’t see how a solution that involves shutting down the economy anywhere from for over 60 days up to “we don’t know” is a logical response. Instead it’s an irrational one stemming from panic and fear.

Panic and fear on who's part? You keep talking about this panic and fear but shutting many things down was on the advice of public health professionals, who else should we listen to during this situation?

If folks like Governor DeWine are thinking about opening up on the recommendation of those medical professionals, then I don't disagree. As this is a new virus and any of the characteristics of it are still to be discovered there will likely be considerable uncertainty over the how we go about lifting the restrictions. There will certainly be mistakes and missteps but as long as we rely on the best public health advice from the professionals then we will likely do better than just going may or may not be best for business.

Again, a cautionary take on opening up things too early is playing out right now in Hokkaido, Japan.

 

[SlickAg]

Our way of life is killing Americans-heart disease, diabetes, sleep deprivation. People working 60-70 hour work weeks -their spouses too.
But we’ve been producing! And consuming! And buying more shit we don’t need! And making poor food and lifestyle choices, and drinking too much.
I like the IDEA of the American Way of Life. But in some of those ways, I wish we could go back to the 1950s.

Agreed. I wasn’t just talking about our economy though. This article below illustrates that point as well. And for the woke mob on here, I linked this one instead of the National Review, because I wanted to show everyone that us crazy Red Hats are able to understand more than breitbart and Fox News.

Redirect Notice

 

[SlickAg]

Panic and fear on who's part? You keep talking about this panic and fear but shutting many things down was on the advice of public health professionals, who else should we listen to during this situation?

If folks like Governor DeWine are thinking about opening up on the recommendation of those medical professionals, then I don't disagree. As this is a new virus and any of the characteristics of it are still to be discovered there will likely be considerable uncertainty over the how we go about lifting the restrictions. There will certainly be mistakes and missteps but as long as we rely on the best public health advice from the professionals then we will likely do better than just going may or may not be best for business.

Again, a cautionary take on opening up things too early is playing out right now in Hokkaido, Japan.

Yes. When we thought this was going to kill at a minimum of one hundred million Americans, it made sense to shut things down for a while and gather some data on this.

Again, did we shutdown to avoid ALL deaths from this? I recall shutting down to avoid overwhelming the hospitals and ICUs and getting all the nurses and doctors too sick to work. Well, now that hospitals are empty and they’re laying off employees, it seems like we’ve flattened the curve. If the system starts getting overwhelmed again, we can reverse the decision. But we’ve changed the goalposts. Now the rhetoric from some leaders is we can’t open back up the economy until there’s a vaccine.

As a country we need to refocus our efforts on flattening the unemployment curve. Because that drain on state and national resources is already starting to overwhelm state budgets much more so than our hospitals (outside of possibly NYC) were overwhelmed by covid patients.

 

[wink]

Panic and fear are resultant emotions stemming from frightful news. Doc says you have cancer, causes fear, maybe panic in your spouse. I can't say how much panic and fear is out there. When you see people wanting to go back to work, protesting for the opportunity, you might think they are not so fearful. BUT, as I said before, it is clear the media has skewed their coverage to the negative and worse case. Harping on raw numbers without regard to rates. Making illogical comparisons to smaller countries, not being forthright about who is at risk and what the chances of hospitalization or death in normal healthy citizens are in various regions of the country. The list is long. Has it caused panic and fear, sure. A significant amount, not so sure. But it has been irresponsible how the media has portrayed much of the outbreak in the country.