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Energy Discussion
- Thread starter Treetop Flyer
- Start date
Shouldn't the blue box on the bottom left say "LNG Exports"?
Beyond that, I'd say this is yet another case of politicians doing something (canceling pipelines) to show that they're doing something (placating the left), and not actually understanding what they're doing.
My favorite part of all this is that if natural gas doesn't flow, up to half the human race could face food shortages or outright starvation. We're dependent on petroleum for a hell of a lot more than power, transportation, and plastics (not that those aren't enough).
Beyond that, I'd say this is yet another case of politicians doing something (canceling pipelines) to show that they're doing something (placating the left), and not actually understanding what they're doing.
My favorite part of all this is that if natural gas doesn't flow, up to half the human race could face food shortages or outright starvation. We're dependent on petroleum for a hell of a lot more than power, transportation, and plastics (not that those aren't enough).
This could be unpleasant - possibly retaliation for sanctions and/or to make Europe even more dependent on Russian natural gas?
U.S. warns newly discovered malware could sabotage energy plants
Private security experts said they suspect liquefied natural gas facilities were the malware’s most likely target
ABMD
Bullets don't fly without Supply
A few things. The natural gas markets are extremely volatile, people forget how fast markets can move. In the last 10 days, NYMEX has increased by over 50%. I haven’t seen future prices this high in over a decade and a half. To put things into perspective, the April 2020 NYMEX was sub $2. The BalYear strip (balance of the year, May-Dec) is now over $7. I fully expect Winter 22-23 to be extremely harsh when it comes to heating expense (your utility bill). Today alone, May futures and Summer 2022 were up almost .50 cents. I fully expect the Winter strip to surpass $8 shortly.
Sluggish production growth + global uncertainty with Russian exports + domestic storage inventory below the 5-year minimum (thanks to a cold Q1) AND predictions for one of the hottest Summers are all fueling (pun not intended
this run-up in natural gas with no end in sight.Those cancelled pipelines could have helped bring supply into New England and Eastern NC but where blocked by, New York (sorry New England) and environmental groups. ACP was the project running from WV across the AT, through VA and into NC. Billions spent only to be abandoned. If completed it would have moved an enormous amount of gas Southeast into new markets of VA and NC. I had lunch on Tuesday with a supplier and marketer of LNG that operates their own import facilities. His compliant was that we can’t export from an LNG facility in the gulf and import into say Boston due to the Jones Act. So they’re forced to buy LNG from foreign countries vs. relying on our own domestic supply. Doesn’t make sense.
ABMD
Bullets don't fly without Supply
Some additional food for thought, reconcile this to what the WH has been saying about domestic producers RE: production...
This was published yesterday...
For those that heat with natural gas prepare for sticker shock come Winter 22/23...
LDCs (utilities) are buying gas now to replenish storage inventories depleted during last winter. If they are paying 200-300% more for that gas this year, who do you think will pay that difference?
*ignoring that outlier spike in late Jan 23, current prices are nearly double what they were in Jan 23 (during the coldest period of the winter).
I'll keep this thread updated as the market develops.
This was published yesterday...
For those that heat with natural gas prepare for sticker shock come Winter 22/23...
LDCs (utilities) are buying gas now to replenish storage inventories depleted during last winter. If they are paying 200-300% more for that gas this year, who do you think will pay that difference?
*ignoring that outlier spike in late Jan 23, current prices are nearly double what they were in Jan 23 (during the coldest period of the winter).
I'll keep this thread updated as the market develops.
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When I was a senior at the US Merchant Marine Academy in 2005, our senior project was a design for an LNG carrier, based on huge forecast demand in the industry. The expectation at the time was there would be several under construction within a few years.
Apparently, in the 17 years since then, nobody has built or purchased one under US Flag, so that we can ship LNG between our own ports and (gasp!) actually export it under U.S. flag. Our neglect of our own Merchant Marine seems almost like a capricious, willful ignorance.
Apparently, in the 17 years since then, nobody has built or purchased one under US Flag, so that we can ship LNG between our own ports and (gasp!) actually export it under U.S. flag. Our neglect of our own Merchant Marine seems almost like a capricious, willful ignorance.
ABMD
Bullets don't fly without Supply
The environmentalists say pipelines are bad for the environment because they can spring leaks and anyway renewable energy is where the jobs are. Jen Psaki said so.A few things. The natural gas markets are extremely volatile, people forget how fast markets can move. In the last 10 days, NYMEX has increased by over 50%. I haven’t seen future prices this high in over a decade and a half. To put things into perspective, the April 2020 NYMEX was sub $2. The BalYear strip (balance of the year, May-Dec) is now over $7. I fully expect Winter 22-23 to be extremely harsh when it comes to heating expense (your utility bill). Today alone, May futures and Summer 2022 were up almost .50 cents. I fully expect the Winter strip to surpass $8 shortly.
Sluggish production growth + global uncertainty with Russian exports + domestic storage inventory below the 5-year minimum (thanks to a cold Q1) AND predictions for one of the hottest Summers are all fueling (pun not intended
Those cancelled pipelines could have helped bring supply into New England and Eastern NC but where blocked by, New York (sorry New England) and environmental groups. ACP was the project running from WV across the AT, through VA and into NC. Billions spent only to be abandoned. If completed it would have moved an enormous amount of gas Southeast into new markets of VA and NC. I had lunch on Tuesday with a supplier and marketer of LNG that operates their own import facilities. His compliant was that we can’t export from an LNG facility in the gulf and import into say Boston due to the Jones Act. So they’re forced to buy LNG from foreign countries vs. relying on our own domestic supply. Doesn’t make sense.
I will repost this here.
U.S. Shipbuilding Is At Its Lowest Ebb Ever. How Did America Fall So Far?
A nation that was among the world’s leaders in commercial shipbuilding at key junctures in its history today builds less than 10 vessels for oceangoing commerce in a typical year.
China builds over a thousand such ships each year.
The entire U.S.-registered fleet of oceangoing commercial ships numbers fewer than 200 vessels, out of a global total of 44,000.
U.S. Shipbuilding Is At Its Lowest Ebb Ever. How Did America Fall So Far?
Does Washington realize that U.S. maritime supremacy is collapsing?
www.forbes.com
For a nation that shifted away from industrial manufacturing several decades ago, this seems like a really silly question... and it's a Forbes article, so of course it's ridiculous.
Are you saying a shift from industrial manufacturing portents a reduction in a merchant marine? We still export plenty by shipping under other flags, and import lots of other stuff that could come by a US ship.
The article laments the decline of US shipbuilding. I'm just pointing out that this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Whether a ship is constructed in the US, or sailed under our flag, is a matter of business efficiencies, not national strategic capacity, unlike the days of yore.
FWIW, the U.S. actually is still one of the top manufacturing nations in the world, coming in at #2 behind China in a country-to-country comparison and number three if one considers the European Union as a single entity. The U.S. accounts for around 16-18% of global manufacturing: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/countries-manufacturing-trade-exports-economics/
You will not generally find low margin products like toys, plastic dishware, consumer electronics, etc...manufactured in the U.S., so the vast majority of things you will find in say a Target or Wal-Mart will be foreign made. But there is a whole underground world of industrial components and products that undergird the functioning of the economy and society that are made here. Manufacturing has shrank as a portion of the overall U.S. economy over the years, as there are other industries that have grown as well.
That said, manufacturing has been hurt in this country over the past decades by open trade policies that allowed for our competitors to have free trade with us but we still have to deal with protectionism with them (ex. China). Don't get me wrong, I am all for free trade, but it only works if other countries are not engaging in protectionism and subsidies for their own industries. Shipbuilding is a prime example. Many countries for years subsidized their shipbuilding industries, but the U.S. ceased this practice in 1981, which made it very difficult for our shipbuilding industry to continue to compete.
We can’t build our weapons systems without components from our potential enemies at the moment. Or maybe worse, our systems have foreign components with who knows what features wired into them. So it’s a national defense issue too.
It doesn’t take much more to run a robot in USA then to run one in China, so hopefully the cost of labor becomes less important.