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Energy Discussion

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I have doubts about the solar intensity at Germany’s latitude, the amount of wind power available or battery technology to do much more than carry a small portion of the total electrical power required.

Reducing energy consumption and efficiencies can go a long way to helping them get there. And even though they likely won't get there for a while there is very strong will to try, which means they will get a lot closer than naysayers assume. I wouldn't discount Germany's determination or will, several have to their peril.

I would like to see the data you are using that shows total coal consumption declining.

India and China still use a lot, with India's consumption increasing, but China has leveled off and the US and EU's usage has dropped quite a bit over the past three decades. So yeah, still dying.

I don't get the hate and scorn heaped on renewables, that along with energy efficiencies (down with incandescents!) it is a great way to helping us reach the long sought goal of actual energy independence, helping unshackle our economy's dependence on the fickle oil market and great for the environment. It is a win-win-win but you still have folks that cling to coal, want to 'drill baby, drill' and roll coal to 'own' whoever they don't like.
 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
Reducing energy consumption and efficiencies can go a long way to helping them get there. And even though they likely won't get there for a while there is very strong will to try, which means they will get a lot closer than naysayers assume. I wouldn't discount Germany's determination or will, several have to their peril.



India and China still use a lot, with India's consumption increasing, but China has leveled off and the US and EU's usage has dropped quite a bit over the past three decades. So yeah, still dying.

I don't get the hate and scorn heaped on renewables, that along with energy efficiencies (down with incandescents!) it is a great way to helping us reach the long sought goal of actual energy independence, helping unshackle our economy's dependence on the fickle oil market and great for the environment. It is a win-win-win but you still have folks that cling to coal, want to 'drill baby, drill' and roll coal to 'own' whoever they don't like.
One of the issues I and others that I served with that work in various energy industries is the "what to do" with the turbines, concrete bases, solar panels and such once they have reached the end of useful life.

I am not saying it can't be a viable power source but it hasn't been thought through from build all the way to disposal.
 

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
Reducing energy consumption and efficiencies can go a long way to helping them get there. And even though they likely won't get there for a while there is very strong will to try, which means they will get a lot closer than naysayers assume. I wouldn't discount Germany's determination or will, several have to their peril.



India and China still use a lot, with India's consumption increasing, but China has leveled off and the US and EU's usage has dropped quite a bit over the past three decades. So yeah, still dying.

I don't get the hate and scorn heaped on renewables, that along with energy efficiencies (down with incandescents!) it is a great way to helping us reach the long sought goal of actual energy independence, helping unshackle our economy's dependence on the fickle oil market and great for the environment. It is a win-win-win but you still have folks that cling to coal, want to 'drill baby, drill' and roll coal to 'own' whoever they don't like.
There is a difference between hating renewables and being skeptical that they can / will replace fossil fuels globally.

Will be interesting to watch global coal consumption over the next couple of decades as the efficiencies of emerging technologies are offset by a worldwide demand for more electric power.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Explosions at a nuclear power plant are always a bad look. You don't have to be a anti-nuke green to wonder WTF, didn't they know they have tsunamis and earthquakes in Japan?

tumblr_mjhw6rJooo1qzo9f0o1_500.gifv
Oh, that is dramatic alright. Now ask some rando how many people died in that explosion. No wait, ask them how many died in the entirety of the emergency. Radiation sickness? Yep they will get that wrong too. TMI, same. Even as bad as Chernobyl was, most folks have no idea what the casualties were, let alone the environmental or long term medical harm.

My view in all this is that we have had three "major" nuclear incidents, and in every case we have used the lessons to make the systems even safer. Only thing that worries me about nuke plants are the remaining soviet designs without containment buildings. But hell ya. Let's use the example of an ancient design run by idiots and a corrupt government reaction to justify black balling modern western nuclear plants.
 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
I think what really gets their attention is stuff like 3 Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukashima.
3 Mile Island was a series of errors, media blowing everything out of proportion, and negligible release of radiation, but you would think from the media reports we would be seeing 2 headed fish.
Explosions at a nuclear power plant are always a bad look. You don't have to be a anti-nuke green to wonder WTF, didn't they know they have tsunamis and earthquakes in Japan?

tumblr_mjhw6rJooo1qzo9f0o1_500.gifv
The issue wasn't the earthquake or Tsunami it was the design, the other plant that was closer the epicenter never had problems, putting the emergency diesel generators in the basement probably wasn't a smart move.
 

sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot
3 Mile Island was a series of errors, media blowing everything out of proportion, and negligible release of radiation, but you would think from the media reports we would be seeing 2 headed fish.

The issue wasn't the earthquake or Tsunami it was the design, the other plant that was closer the epicenter never had problems, putting the emergency diesel generators in the basement probably wasn't a smart move.

I recently tried to watch a Three Mile Island docudrama on Netflix. I only watched one episode and lost interest in the fearmongering. The Chernobyl miniseries was far better.

As far as Fukushima, someone made a bet against statistics and lost. I recall reading somewhere that the exact circumstances of the event were considered extremely unlikely. It happened anyway, which extremely unlikely events sometimes do.

Still pro nuke. We’ve come a long way from those old first and second generation BWR and PWR designs, if we could only get out of our own way. Not sure we’ll have a choice as there isn’t enough wind and solar to go around, and conditions don’t always allow those to produce sufficient energy in every locations. I guess we can burn all the coal and release even more pollution and radioactivity…
 

number9

Well-Known Member
Contributor
3 Mile Island was a series of errors, media blowing everything out of proportion, and negligible release of radiation, but you would think from the media reports we would be seeing 2 headed fish.
One thing that has always bothered me is the anti-nuke people are always so quick to cite death tolls from nuclear accidents & disasters, but it doesn't occur to them that tens (hundreds?) of thousands of people die as a result of pollution from fossil fuel-based generation.
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
I'm a nuclear power fan too, but...

3 Mile Island was a series of errors, media blowing everything out of proportion, and negligible release of radiation, but you would think from the media reports we would be seeing 2 headed fish.
Well, every nuke accident involves a series of errors. In design, in operation. Just like aviation accidents.

I don't think anything was blown out of proportion, though. It's not about what it was, it is about what it could have been. Like landing your plane and seeing that you forgot to pull the ejection pins, or on walkaround you see that there's a streak of oil the length of the plane coming from an access panel.

Three Mile Island was a partial meltdown, which means it was on its way to becoming a full meltdown, which would have been catastrophic. It should have never gotten anywhere near where it got. We dodged the Big One. We could have had a Chernobyl Exclusion Zone-sized region (1000 square miles) or a Fukashima zone (140 square miles) plopped down in the middle of Central PA next to a state capital.
As far as Fukushima, someone made a bet against statistics and lost. I recall reading somewhere that the exact circumstances of the event were considered extremely unlikely. It happened anyway, which extremely unlikely events sometimes do.
For sure. When you take a low probability bet but play it a thousand times, the odds of zero events ever happening gets pretty small. The failure probabilities also most likely follow a fat tails distribution. Our models are likely grossly underestimating frequency of severe failures.

The nukes currently are Too Big to Fail, in that if they fail the fallout rebounds through actual impact (dead people and exclusion zones) and also through politics and policy and everything else. The industry can't tolerate any failures. That is too high a bar to meet.

I mean, you could lead a life of the greatest honor and integrity, but get caught f***ing a goat once...

The small modular reactors, made in factories under controlled repeatable conditions, with safer technologies, and a learning process...
 

Mos

Well-Known Member
None
I recently tried to watch a Three Mile Island docudrama on Netflix. I only watched one episode and lost interest in the fearmongering. The Chernobyl miniseries was far better.
I got about halfway through the second episode on 3MI and gave up. It seems good documentaries are rare these days.
 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
I'm a nuclear power fan too, but...


Well, every nuke accident involves a series of errors. In design, in operation. Just like aviation accidents.

I don't think anything was blown out of proportion, though. It's not about what it was, it is about what it could have been. Like landing your plane and seeing that you forgot to pull the ejection pins, or on walkaround you see that there's a streak of oil the length of the plane coming from an access panel.

Three Mile Island was a partial meltdown, which means it was on its way to becoming a full meltdown, which would have been catastrophic. It should have never gotten anywhere near where it got. We dodged the Big One. We could have had a Chernobyl Exclusion Zone-sized region (1000 square miles) or a Fukashima zone (140 square miles) plopped down in the middle of Central PA next to a state capital.

For sure. When you take a low probability bet but play it a thousand times, the odds of zero events ever happening gets pretty small. The failure probabilities also most likely follow a fat tails distribution. Our models are likely grossly underestimating frequency of severe failures.

The nukes currently are Too Big to Fail, in that if they fail the fallout rebounds through actual impact (dead people and exclusion zones) and also through politics and policy and everything else. The industry can't tolerate any failures. That is too high a bar to meet.

I mean, you could lead a life of the greatest honor and integrity, but get caught f***ing a goat once...

The small modular reactors, made in factories under controlled repeatable conditions, with safer technologies, and a learning process...
Having read the reports from TMI and discussions from people who later worked at that site what it ended up as was the worst it was going to get, the bad thing is if they had literally done nothing the plant would have shut itself down and everything would be fine, or mostly fine.
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
...if they had literally done nothing the plant would have shut itself down and everything would be fine, or mostly fine.

Well, sounds like you know more about it than I do.

The idea, though, that all of the backup systems would have worked and the procedures followed...reminds me of my comment to my copilot when our trusty reliable Allison T56 turboprop engine failed off the cat. I'm pretty sure the same guy maintained the other engine too.
 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
Well, sounds like you know more about it than I do.

The idea, though, that all of the backup systems would have worked and the procedures followed...reminds me of my comment to my copilot when our trusty reliable Allison T56 turboprop engine failed off the cat. I'm pretty sure the same guy maintained the other engine too.
I would be hoping it wasn't the person that caused the issue just random material failure!

There are so many redundant systems with nuke power so many things have to go wrong to cause an issue, one thing they always told us is to "trust your indications".
 

nittany03

Recovering NFO. Herder of Programmers.
pilot
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Well, every nuke accident involves a series of errors. In design, in operation. Just like aviation accidents.

I don't think anything was blown out of proportion, though. It's not about what it was, it is about what it could have been. Like landing your plane and seeing that you forgot to pull the ejection pins, or on walkaround you see that there's a streak of oil the length of the plane coming from an access panel.

Three Mile Island was a partial meltdown, which means it was on its way to becoming a full meltdown, which would have been catastrophic. It should have never gotten anywhere near where it got. We dodged the Big One. We could have had a Chernobyl Exclusion Zone-sized region (1000 square miles) or a Fukashima zone (140 square miles) plopped down in the middle of Central PA next to a state capital.
And I hypothetically could have had to eject just before lunchtime, and then somehow had my jet come down and hit Columbia Center or 1201 3rd Avenue in downtown Seattle. Yeah, that would have been horrible. But it never happened, and using that as an excuse to shut down NASWI would be ludicrous, though I probably shouldn't be giving Ferguson any more lawsuit ideas.

TMI et al are reasons to manage risk, not shut down the civilian nuke program completely. In fact, I'd go so far as to argue that if you don't take nuclear power seriously, you don't take climate change seriously. 9/11 didn't have us shut down the airlines and demand everyone take Amtrak.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
Reducing energy consumption and efficiencies can go a long way to helping them get there. And even though they likely won't get there for a while there is very strong will to try, which means they will get a lot closer than naysayers assume. I wouldn't discount Germany's determination or will, several have to their peril.



India and China still use a lot, with India's consumption increasing, but China has leveled off and the US and EU's usage has dropped quite a bit over the past three decades. So yeah, still dying.

I don't get the hate and scorn heaped on renewables, that along with energy efficiencies (down with incandescents!) it is a great way to helping us reach the long sought goal of actual energy independence, helping unshackle our economy's dependence on the fickle oil market and great for the environment. It is a win-win-win but you still have folks that cling to coal, want to 'drill baby, drill' and roll coal to 'own' whoever they don't like.
People don't so much hate renewables, what they hate is the renewables being forced onto us as if they are at all a viable replacement for conventional sources of energy. Barack Obama was acting as if we could replace our conventional sources with them back in 2008 when he became President. It's 2022 and they are nowhere further in terms of being a viable replacement.

It is also questionable as to how independent they will actually make us, because they require a lot of various rare earth elements for their manufacture, and a lot of those right now come from sketchy parts of the world. For example China is where a lot of rare earth elements are currently sourced (they could be sourced elsewhere, but China is the cheapest I believe and the best at mining them) and China also leads in solar panel manufacturing. For battery technology, one of the critical elements is cobalt, and the major source of that in the world is the Congo, where a lot of child labor and oppressive conditions are used in the mining of it.

The incandescent light bulb ban represents part of the whole problem IMO with the green energy crusade. We get told the LEDs and CFLs are superior to the incandescent, so therefore they raise the energy standards to ban the incandescent (also lobbied for by the light bulb companies). Of course, this reminds me of a meme I've seen on the Internet: "Liberalism. Ideas so great, they're mandatory!"

The initial selling point was that LEDs would last and last and last in comparison to incandescents, even though they cost a lot more. The thing is, the reason the very cheap incandescents last the amount of time they do is engineered in as back in the 20th century, the major lighting companies came to an agreed-upon industry standard for how long the light bulbs would last. They could make incandescents that last far longer if they wanted to. The other thing is that while high-quality early incadescents did last forever (I have one about ten years-old now that I leave running for hours each day, and it's still going strong!), the newer ones don't seem to last much longer than the original incandescents. Which doesn't surprise me, as the manufacturers have likely gradually reduced their lifespan so people are forced to keep buying them.

And incandescent light bulbs are superior to LEDs and CFLs in terms of light quality, because incandescent light is natural and flows naturally in all directions. CFL light is harsher and LED light is very directional and artificial in comparison to incandescent. One LED light "bulb" consists of multiple individual LED lights arrayed in a circular pattern with the "bulb" covering diffusing the light up and downwards, so to simulate an incandescent. Some people can't tell the difference, others still can.

Now LEDs blow incandescents out of the water in terms of energy-efficiency and for not producing much in the way of heat, and for that, they can be a great option, but in the winter cold, incandescents can help with heating your home and also, they won't interfere with your television the way LEDs can. LEDs are electronics and can give off a signal that screws with your TV. This happened with one I had. The TV kept acting screwy, finally I took out the 3-way LED I had in the nearby lamp and replaced it with a 3-way incandescent and the problem went away.

IMO, the ban on incandescents should be done away with entirely and people allowed to make their own choice. If LEDs and CFLs are really so superior, then the incandescent will just naturally become like record albums, i.e. made by a few small niche manufacturers for people who still want them. But that isn't what would happen and the Left would scream if this was done, despite proclaiming up and down the supposed superiority of the mandated product.

Anyways, that is my rant on that :)
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
And I hypothetically could have had to eject just before lunchtime, and then somehow had my jet come down and hit Columbia Center or 1201 3rd Avenue in downtown Seattle. Yeah, that would have been horrible. But it never happened, and using that as an excuse to shut down NASWI would be ludicrous, though I probably shouldn't be giving Ferguson any more lawsuit ideas.

TMI et al are reasons to manage risk, not shut down the civilian nuke program completely. In fact, I'd go so far as to argue that if you don't take nuclear power seriously, you don't take climate change seriously. 9/11 didn't have us shut down the airlines and demand everyone take Amtrak.
Yes but 9/11 wasn't a disaster that could render part of the country uninhabitable.
 
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