I imagine a sufficient answer rests on the broader strategy at the time. To be clear, I’m not remotely close to being “read in” on any of this so the following is all arm-chair admiraling. To beat China (with respect to Taiwan) we don’t really have to attack China directly, we just have to contain her ability to move too far. In this case Taiwan is flanked by Japan to the north and the Philippines to the south with connecting points to Korea and choke-points at the Celebes and Java (starting to sound familiar?). In this case China can seize Taiwan, but they can’t secure it so an effective U.S. and allied strategy would secure those connecting gaps with manned vessels (surface and air) and flood the interior with unmanned and/or quick strike manned efforts and augmented with free ranging attack boats). The Marines strategy of seizing key islands and using their own anti-ship missiles, long-range rockets and air defense weapons should easily turn nearby seas, and skies, into deeper choke points that can be changed or expanded (assuming improved weapon systems). This effort can be readily supported by new AFSOC aircraft programs.Serious question for the group: what do you think the future holds for manned, surface (CSG) & airborne (All platforms) in the context of a conflict with the PRC in a Taiwan scenario? Lots of arguments and support for space-based, unmanned (air & surface) assets, and Cyber platforms. But do we really think that manned platforms going forward are worth the risk?
Contained thus, the PLAN becomes something like the German Imperial Navy in WWI, capable and dangerous but trapped and Taiwan becomes a harder nut to crack. As for the U.S. Navy, amphibs will be important as will more submarines. We have enough carriers but more quick-to-build destroyers and frigates are needed to fill the gaps. I have no idea what is being done with unmanned, undersea systems but I imagine that some bright minds are working very hard there and that kind of silent, long loitering system will be critical.