Europe under extreme duress

[MIDNJAC]

I understand the price of letting NATO fall. It sucks. But perhaps you should consider the price of what you guys are proposing. It's insane.

Complete failure of the western world, leading to the annexation of much of Europe, and eventually our own country? Yeah, I guess that kinda "sucks"......probably better to not stop it. Let's just let a bunch of russians take over the world because we happen to agree with their brand of (this is strange to say historically) religion, and conservatism. It won't be that bad this time. There won't be the gulags this time......I mean, there only will be for libs right? Give me a fucking break dude. This is pure evil. This is Hitler reincarnated, perhaps without the death camps. They have been our most profound enemy since the russian revolution, we just were dumb enough to think that we weren't enemies anymore for a while. That is very obviously not true, and it never was. We are about to have a world war, entirely because they chose to. That much is unavoidable. What we do in the next few months will have a big impact on the future of the world. If I am wrong, I will be happy, but I would bet my life and everything that I own on a real hot war with russia, regardless of our actions, in the next 12 months. Small possibility that is averted if putin is summarily defeated in Ukraine.

 

[Random8145]

“Ordinary Men” by Christopher Browning is a book that will stay with you. Highly recommend. It follows an Einsatzgruppen consisting of family men. Sobering stuff.

The EOD problems over there almost come across as throwbacks, like listening to your dad’s favorite band and thinking “oh hey I could get into this”

The thing with the Einsatzgruppen is they were die-hards, adherent to an ideology that said that the Jews are an evil people, responsible for all manner of wars and crimes throughout history, and thus had to be eliminated, along with believing that said Jews were also subhuman and that all of the Slavic peoples were Jews. The Germans were much more lenient when they went into racially similar (as viewed by them) countries, such as France. These Russian troops, by contrast, just seem to enjoy killing. And I doubt it is racial, as Ukrainians and Russians are all Slavs. According to Putin, they're the exact same people even, it's the Ukrainians arguing they are different.

 

[Random8145]

It would be interesting to see Russia, but I have no interest in forgiving them for their most recent atrocities......the newest in an incredibly long list dating back to the revolution. Disgusting.

And yes, you are correct. I do not care. I realize that would be the response. There is a chance we would dull the impact via various means, but I am not kidding myself that it wouldn't be a global catastrophe. But a world where russia gets to call any of the shots....not a world worth living in IMHO.

We are on a road to nuclear war with russia in a very short amount of time.....I don't think there is any other way of looking at it. It is time to put the modern equivalent of Pershing II and GLCM in Putin's backyard.....Poland, etc. Give him no room to breathe. Make it known that if he even coughs in the direction of a NATO country, those weapons will be in his bunker in less than 5 minutes, as well as those of his daughters/wives/anyone he claims to care about.

Why do you assume we are on the road to nuclear war with Russia?

 

[Random8145]

Complete failure of the western world, leading to the annexation of much of Europe, and eventually our own country? Yeah, I guess that kinda "sucks"......probably better to not stop it. Let's just let a bunch of russians take over the world because we happen to agree with their brand of (this is strange to say historically) religion, and conservatism. It won't be that bad this time. There won't be the gulags this time......I mean, there only will be for libs right? Give me a fucking break dude. This is pure evil. This is Hitler reincarnated, perhaps without the death camps. They have been our most profound enemy since the russian revolution, we just were dumb enough to think that we weren't enemies anymore for a while. That is very obviously not true, and it never was. We are about to have a world war, entirely because they chose to. That much is unavoidable. What we do in the next few months will have a big impact on the future of the world. If I am wrong, I will be happy, but I would bet my life and everything that I own on a real hot war with russia, regardless of our actions, in the next 12 months. Small possibility that is averted if putin is summarily defeated in Ukraine.

I am curious, but how would a "real hot war" with Russia occur? I do not understand so many people making out as if Russia is this big, capable military power where we'd have "war" between NATO and Russia. A hot war with NATO would mean the Russian military getting destroyed, IMO. They do not have the capability to establish air superiority against UKRAINE, a country with a military budget of a little over $5 billion, and you think they are going to take on NATO, i.e. the combined forces of what are pretty much among the most powerful nations militarily and economically on Earth?

Russia does not have the economic strength or industrial capability to field any such type of military to be of any real threat to NATO. How is a Russian attack going to go down? (as NATO is definitely not going to try invading Russia). For one, NATO now is not the NATO of 2014, just like Ukraine's forces weren't. Since 2014, Ukraine has received a lot of training by NATO and received a lot of weaponry and done a lot of preparation to counter a Russian invasion. In addition, NATO has also done a lot of prepping, rotating a tank brigade over and doing training with various NATO countries to ensure interoperability of forces. In addition, various stocks of prepositioned supplies (tanks, logistic vehicles, weapons, etc...) in Eastern Europe have been upgraded.

Now in invading, you generally need a numerical advantage against a defending attacker, and you most definitely will against one as professional and well-equipped as NATO. So that would mean a huge number of precision munitions (which they do not have and which NATO does) to try and take out NATO airfields, radar sites, missile sites, etc...along with a huge number of aircraft, artillery, tanks, and troops (which they also do not have or have in any quality). The Russians would be operating over elongated supply lines as well, whereas NATO would be operating over short supply lines and they'd get shorter if somehow NATO forces had to fall back.

Before invading Ukraine, some actively wondered just how the Russians could afford a world-class military that could overrun NATO forces on a fraction of the budget. Ukraine has shown the truth: they don't. I do not at all see any hot war scenario resulting in a nuclear exchange, unless the Russians believed Russia itself was at threat, and NATO could very much make it clear that they will not invade Russia at all, just hold off and destroy its military forces.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Why do you assume we are on the road to nuclear war with Russia?

Putin just made a land grab that hasn't been seen since Hitler. This is not limited to Ukraine. The next stop is a NATO country, if Ukraine is not a complete defeat. He is assuming that we won't actually have the heart to act on Article 5. He has already threatened the use of nuclear weapons to successfully blackmail the west into (almost) doing nothing. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong, but history doesn't favor that.

 

[Random8145]

So you guys all think Europe, America, and Russia being completely destroyed is better than Putin fighting a losing battle in the Baltics, but I'm crazy and thinking otherwise is ludicrous? What am I missing here? You think Europeans or Americans in 50 years will be happy with that decisions? Either they don't exist, or they read in their history books about that time Russia overplayed it's hand and collapsed all over again. If our goal is protecting the Baltics from Russia, getting it nuked instead of fighting a conventional war against unmotivated conscripts isn't helpful.

Y'all are short sighted.

What you are missing, IMO, is in thinking that Europe, America, and Russia would all get destroyed in some insane nuclear exchange if we fight back against Russian aggression. You think the Russians are stupid or nuts? They are not going to attack in the first place if they believe NATO will stop them, and they most definitely aren't going to start lobbing nukes in such an exchange. They aren't fools. The whole point of rebuilding the Russian Empire is to protect Russia.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Before invading Ukraine, some actively wondered just how the Russians could afford a world-class military that could overrun NATO forces on a fraction of the budget. Ukraine has shown the truth: they don't. I do not at all see any hot war scenario resulting in a nuclear exchange, unless the Russians believed Russia itself was at threat, and NATO could very much make it clear that they will not invade Russia at all, just hold off and destroy its military forces.

Completely agree with your first statement. It makes no sense at all for them. But my point is that, for whatever reason, Putin has decided that now is the time for a global conflict of russia vs the west. He isn't going to just let this go, unless we force him to. I think there are ways in which we can force him to back down, and thus avoid a global conflict. But I think that is the road he has chosen for the world, should we stand by and do nothing. He knows he can make enormous gains if the west continues to pacify him, which he has no reason to believe won't be the case

 

[Random8145]

Putin just made a land grab that hasn't been seen since Hitler. This is not limited to Ukraine. The next stop is a NATO country, if Ukraine is not a complete defeat. He is assuming that we won't actually have the heart to act on Article 5. He has already threatened the use of nuclear weapons to successfully blackmail the west into (almost) doing nothing. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong, but history doesn't favor that.

He just made a losing attempt at a land grab, with his forces being driven back. He does not have the manpower or the logistics to hold Ukraine even if he could militarily defeat it, which he is not doing, let alone try pushing into a NATO country. Russia's military is rail-dependent. Beyond their rail heads, the only way to move troops and supplies around is via trucks, and Russia has shown it doesn't know anything about convoy protection because their logistics trucks have been getting pummeled by the Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian rail gauge is the same as the Russian one, but to utilize the Ukrainian rail system would mean capturing major cities, such as Kiev, which the Russians have not been able to do. Without the rail system, they'd have to try running very overextended supply lines through Ukraine with a very hostile population. Trying to control said population would tie down their military enough, or else they'd have to let go of the country, which would make trying to invade NATO more difficult. Russia lacks the aircraft and the trucks to support the logistics that would be needed to go up against NATO.

I would argue his threatening to use nuclear weapons is because that is really the only threat he can make. It doesn't mean there's any teeth to it. The Chinese routinely make threats against the U.S. for sailing through the South China Sea, but nothing ever comes of them. Also, I don't get what you mean by saying history doesn't favor that. History shows that you cannot act weak in the face of an aggressor, as it only incentivizes further aggression.

 

[Random8145]

Completely agree with your first statement. It makes no sense at all for them. But my point is that, for whatever reason, Putin has decided that now is the time for a global conflict of russia vs the west. He isn't going to just let this go, unless we force him to. I think there are ways in which we can force him to back down, and thus avoid a global conflict. But I think that is the road he has chosen for the world, should we stand by and do nothing. He knows he can make enormous gains if the west continues to pacify him, which he has no reason to believe won't be the case

Putin likely decided now is the time due to perception of Western weakness, a very wrong belief in pro-Russian sentiment among the Ukrainian people, and the fact that Ukraine is a massive strategic prize needed for Russia, both for Russian security and to start really rebuilding the Russian/Soviet empire. What has happened though is that what he thought would be an easy operation has turned into a full-on war and his military doesn't know how, nor possesses the capabilities, to fight such. So now he is just trying to save face.

Also, what gives you the impression that he thinks the West will "continue to pacify him," when the West has enacted very strong sanctions on him and NATO forces have come much more together?

 

[MIDNJAC]

I think I mostly agree with you. Russia has demonstrated itself to be a, shocker, miserable failure (as it has for over a century now). My concern is in what happens next. I don't think it will be as simple as russia admitting defeat and simply taking their ball and going home. Our sanctions are certainly a thing, probably effective in some sense. But we need to threaten putin's life, in a very specific sense. That has to be part of the reaction. He has to know that if he plays this wrong, he will be killed, and every person in his country will be as well.

 

[Random8145]

For those that have read 2034, I think Stavridis makes the argument that thinking that we are immune from the effects of Nuclear War and thinking it wouldn't erode American power economically, politically, and militarily for decades is a false hope I think. (As in, what happens if we start lobbing nukes at each other? Remember - Russia can reach us too...)

I don't think one "can" actually "win" a nuclear war. "Erode" American power I think is an understatement.

 

[Random8145]

“Ordinary Men” by Christopher Browning is a book that will stay with you. Highly recommend. It follows an Einsatzgruppen consisting of family men. Sobering stuff.

The EOD problems over there almost come across as throwbacks, like listening to your dad’s favorite band and thinking “oh hey I could get into this”

In a similar vain, a very good movie on how the Germans were on the Eastern Front is the 1985 Soviet anti-war film, "Come and See" (maybe the greatest war film of all time). It inspired Steven Spielberg in how he made "Saving Private Ryan" and while not graphic, it is truly horrific. It shows war from the standpoint of the civilians and some of what the Germans did to the peoples of those regions. It was made in the vain of a horror film. The director said he could only show a fraction of what he actually wanted to show in it.

Also, I know it's a bit hagiographic, but this seems prescient right now (IMO):

How NATO needs to be with Russia

 

[Random8145]

I think I mostly agree with you. Russia has demonstrated itself to be a, shocker, miserable failure (as it has for over a century now). My concern is in what happens next. I don't think it will be as simple as russia admitting defeat and simply taking their ball and going home. Our sanctions are certainly a thing, probably effective in some sense. But we need to threaten putin's life, in a very specific sense. That has to be part of the reaction. He has to know that if he plays this wrong, he will be killed, and every person in his country will be as well.

Well I would have to completely disagree with that. We don't need to threaten outright destruction of Russia (which in return would mean outright destruction of the West, or the U.S. at least). I am unsure about targeting Putin. I think letting Putin know his military forces will suffer severe consequences or be destroyed should he try to really escalate (chemical or nuclear weapons) will be enough. Destruction of Russia is what you do if he starts seriously threatening destruction of the West. Right now he has threatened but it's more just trying to maintain some semblance of an appearance of strength IMO.

 

[Griz882]

So you guys all think Europe, America, and Russia being completely destroyed is better than Putin fighting a losing battle in the Baltics, but I'm crazy and thinking otherwise is ludicrous? What am I missing here? You think Europeans or Americans in 50 years will be happy with that decisions? Either they don't exist, or they read in their history books about that time Russia overplayed it's hand and collapsed all over again. If our goal is protecting the Baltics from Russia, getting it nuked instead of fighting a conventional war against unmotivated conscripts isn't helpful.

Y'all are short sighted.

Better short-sighted than blind.

 

[Griz882]

What does this have to do with what I was saying? I'm not saying what our politicians will do... I'm arguing what they should do. But I also don't know that I totally agree with you on what they would do, either. War with Russia would mean the end of America and probably their lives as well. Not sure they'd care about their careers if they understand that.

On one hand you tell us how Russia will go into the Balkans and get bogged down costing them more and more…but on the other you ask us to believe that they have a remarkably viable nuclear force capable of bringing on “the end of America…” I can tell you this…if their armor equipment, officers, and enlisted are incapable of fighting and maintaining their gear then their rocket and missile forces are in the same condition. I’m confident that every Russian boomer is being shadowed by at least two attack boats…all ready to sink same if their rusty missile doors are able to open. On the ground I’d be willing to bet that roughly 1/2 of Russia’s ICBMs are able to launch with certainty and at least 1/4 of the remaining crews aren’t willing to launch. So Russian nuclear capability is around 1/4 to 1/2 as effective as we imagine. Add to that some frantic missile defense efforts on our side and the impact, while horrible at every level, will hardly be nation ending.

As to what my point had to do with yours…everything. Absolutely everything. War is an extension of politics and “should do” is never part of the calculation.