Europe under extreme duress

[Max the Mad Russian]

It takes imagination and drive to seek out excitement when it isn't forced on you by circumstance.

Concur, but here in Europe too, so this is true for everyone everywhere. Paradoxically, as aviation author Robert Dorr and journalist Sebastian Junger both independently stated, the conscription in broad way (military, socially, medically, you name it) may help: every youngster has to know that society doesn't work for him without his share of this task. Highly arguable, but my Israeli relatives say it works.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Following this path: Russian conscript is merely cannon fodder. He is not supposed to return to society becoming better than he was before his service. Honestly, when it's war, he is not supposed to return at all, and if he is lucky enough and returns, no one expects he will be better human being, rather opposite - harsh PTSD in cold and indifferent society makes him living dead.

Israeli society (waging more or less constant war) - oppositely, expects its conscript to return being better than he was, to build his (and her) further life being more strong, enduring, balanced and eventually wise person, along with his/her parents who often have elder version of the same military unit insignia up on the shelf and his/her children, looking for slots in that unit. A logic of a tribe, according to Junger. And this is not draft, this is duty for all (and everyone) to serve the society first and, amazingly, to make them better individuals. Something like that.

 

[Randy Daytona]

An interesting perspective. Turkey may take on the mantle of “empire,” but it will just be Turkey. That Middle Eastern genie isn’t getting shoved back into that bottle.

I have to agree that the real test for NATO comes after the peace. They have no real dog in a China fight, but France and the UK are pushing back against the way China is working to alter markets to the yuan. In the end, that isn’t enough to prompt a war.

The only question I have about Russia is their nuclear capacity. Now, if the war ends soon (and today’s news promises some possibilities) then I think we’ll see status quo ante-bellum with no changes. I am not as impressed with Russia’s natural resources as others. They are not globe changing - indeed North America could out produce/extract the Russians with the exception that the west wants the stuff….but not the mess. We are horribly guilty of being locally “environmentalist” but globally greedy.

India is the most fascinating case. They aren’t exactly pro-Russian, but the Russians will sell them stuff to slap around Pakistan. India is the next big replacement for China once the new Chinese middle class establishes their internal hegemony - and India is not going to ally itself with China against the U.S. simply because the real money is in democracy - so I admire their middle-of-the-road approach. On the other hand, I think where the Pacific will next pivot to South Korea and Japan who can stand up to Chinese aggression with U.S. support.

Any thoughts on how long Turkey is going to hold up Finland and Sweden?

Turkey Pursuing Talks with Russia While Stalling Sweden, Finland NATO Application, Panel Says - USNI News

Turkey has no problem holding back approval of Sweden’s and Finland’s applications to join NATO while pursuing its own talks with Russia on opening Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea to allow the shipment of grain overseas, a panel of security experts said Wednesday. Speaking at an Atlantic...

news.usni.org

Turkey Pursuing Talks with Russia While Stalling Sweden, Finland NATO Application, Panel Says​

 

[Griz882]

Any thoughts on how long Turkey is going to hold up Finland and Sweden?

Turkey Pursuing Talks with Russia While Stalling Sweden, Finland NATO Application, Panel Says - USNI News

Turkey has no problem holding back approval of Sweden’s and Finland’s applications to join NATO while pursuing its own talks with Russia on opening Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea to allow the shipment of grain overseas, a panel of security experts said Wednesday. Speaking at an Atlantic...

news.usni.org

Turkey Pursuing Talks with Russia While Stalling Sweden, Finland NATO Application, Panel Says​

At best it is a stalling tactic.

 

[Notanaviator]

At best it is a stalling tactic.

They've got a pretty good precedent for sticking up NATO processes for specific concessions... they've always got a little wish list going, will pump the org for a handout or a give or something, and presumably back down when they get it. I think they've got marginally more specific gripes this time on issues that actually involve Sweden/Finland, like support for Kurds, etc., but there's a few examples of this in the past. Annoying that there doesn't seem to be much of a veto override with NATO.

 

[Mirage]

They've got a pretty good precedent for sticking up NATO processes for specific concessions... they've always got a little wish list going, will pump the org for a handout or a give or something, and presumably back down when they get it. I think they've got marginally more specific gripes this time on issues that actually involve Sweden/Finland, like support for Kurds, etc., but there's a few examples of this in the past. Annoying that there doesn't seem to be much of a veto override with NATO.

And unfortunate that there is no mechanism to kick a country out of the Alliance. Poor foresight by the founders. Like creating a legal mechanism for a marriage but not for divorce.

 

[ChuckMK23]

Harpoon getting a workout - waiting for color commentary from @Max the Mad Russian

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537923933092970496

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Harpoon getting a workout

RGM-84A has never been prone to miss the target that AGM air-launched version used to be. And Russian Navy has no choice but to try to use auxiliary fleet units to deliver SAMs to Snake Island. When Ukranian defenders send all Black Sea Fleet surface and auxiliary ships to the bottom, there would be funny show how the Russians may employ the transport-rigged submarines to supply the Snake

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

BTW, I'm pretty much within the trend: when someone was seeking for the front picture for Wiki page about Harpoon, s/he had somehow retouched me out

 

[Randy Daytona]

France’s parliamentary elections yesterday proved surprising and may have an effect on the EU as Macron lost his ruling majority in the National Assembly.

Macron faces 5 years of gridlock after stunning parliamentary defeat

French president will have to battle for his promised reforms after far-left and far-right rivals log historic gains.

www.politico.eu

Macron’s bloc falls short of absolute majority, leftist coalition second, large gains for far right

Emmanuel Macron lost his absolute majority in France's lower-house National Assembly as French legislative elections concluded on Sunday, the country's fourth Election Day in two months after last week's…

www.france24.com

 

[Randy Daytona]

Interesting article on ammunition consumption between Russia and Ukraine.

The Return of Industrial Warfare

Can the West still provide the arsenal of democracy?

rusi.org

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Interesting article on ammunition consumption

Thanks, really interesting. Something like that was spreading within Ukranian press in 2015 after Donbass frontline was stabilized. Then some Israeli instructors have said "this will be the artillery, gun batteries war just to underline old Napoleon legacy, and the only way to make it more modern is amount of armoured units". They for the first time then expressed regrets Merkava is not airlift-able due to the size and weight, and thus logistics must take a part in any development on early stage, by the way. It didn't mean IDF was supposed to deliver armour to somebody but imagine such artillery density anywhere with minimal air support and everyone will probably make the same conclusion.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

And @Griz882 you're absolutely, crash-bone-ly right about drones: they started to change the war, this one and in general as well, yet there's one trait the drone doesn't have for now - it has to learn how to strafe. Maybe purely psycho but decisive effect from the first hand: if the drone can strafe, it becomes personal.

 

[Flash]

Ukraine has regained control of Snake Island. Not only is it a significant moral victory but also could impact Russia's blockade of Ukraine's seaborne commerce, which is causing problems far beyond Ukraine.

Unfortunately Russia seems to be grinding forward slowly but surely on the eastern front, which appears to have devolved into a battle of attrition with Ukraine slowly losing ground more often than not. I suppose the good news is that the gains are incremental and likely won't expand beyond the Donbass region in the near future.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Snake is our Guadalcanal. At least seems to be.