I think this ends in one of three ways:
1.) Putin at the end of a rope or the business end of a firing squad. Russian defeat.
2.) A prolonged conflict that never really resolves into a victory or defeat for either side, just losses and damage to Ukraine.
2.) Some kind of military outcome that allows Putin to save face and call it a Russian victory.
I think Putin would like to escalate this until he can ensure all territory east of Kyiv is part of Russia, but he is limited by his own military, and possibly political favor at home. The X factor is the Russian people and oligarchy. The guy in the video asserts Putin is popular at home. He certainly seems less so with both the common people and the Russian “big boys club” after this week. Instituting a draft isn’t likely to make any sitting leader more popular. Additionally, a lot of husbands, fathers, and sons aren’t coming home. That said, I wouldn’t consider #1 very likely. #3 isn’t likely either, unless the West falters in its support for Ukraine.
In our era of forever wars and weak political leadership, I think #2 above is the most likely outcome. This will just go on, and on, and on…
IMO, I am thinking that this may well end in a total Russian defeat. Remember, this war is only seven months old and it is to a good degree a conventional war, with clearly-defined fronts and countries. By contrast, Iraq wasn't really a country in the conventional sense, just a "country" that the European powers had cobbled together that was held together by a dictatorship, so after Saddam fell, it collapsed. So the U.S. had to try to create a working country and defeat the terrorists. And then Afghanistan, again not a country in the normal sense and terrorists who are difficult to defeat in a conventional manner.
Whereas with this, Ukraine is very much a country with an established government and a very patriotic sense of self and very clear borders. Russia is also a country in this sense. However, Ukraine has the backing of the West while Russia is mostly isolated, and Ukraine now seems to now be winning against Russia and Russia's military seems to be reaching the end of its rope in terms of capabilities. The Ukrainians may well have permanently knocked them onto the defensive even. They can get some degree of supplies from China and Iran but only so much. Ukraine has destroyed and/or captured a tremendous amount of their tanks and trucks. And because of the artillery provided by the West, they have been able to keep hitting Russian supply depots and command posts, which inhibits the ability of the Russian artillery to operate (itself which probably has been a good deal worn out now as they've likely worn out the barrels greatly).
The Ukrainians dealt severe damage to what is supposed to have been the elite Russian tankers, tasked with defending Moscow and leading the charge against NATO forces in a war, 4th Guards Tank Division of 1st Guards Tank Army. 4th is supposed to have been the most elite division of the most elite tank army, and they just flat abandoned their equipment and ran away. Not even a fighting retreat at all, just ran. So I don't think the Russians are going to be able to hang on for any years-worth considering they're pulling up 45 year-old men and up now. Those people are going to be trained or equipped properly as they can't train or properly equip their supposedly professional forces.
