If you took what I said as a lecture, lighten up. I think until 75 becomes the norm for STA-21 selections I would treat last year as an enigma. Traditionally swo, pilot, and nfo also have decent selection percentages in STA. Last year, they weren't re-designating any aviation NPQs, DORs, or attrites. This year if you are willing to switch to SWO you have a really good chance of staying in. To me that indicates there is a need for SWOs and quite possibly officers in general.
To piggy back Haubby I would pick something that would give myself the best odds to get STA-21 and become an officer. You'll be amazed at how much you'll grow as a person going through the program and I can almost guarantee that when you look back you'll shake your head when you realize you weren't as ready to be an officer as you thought you were when you left the fleet for NSI. It is a whole new world.
Hippie I would also say your pilot gouge is incorrect. I am nearing the final stages before I wing and the head of CNATRA is saying the exact opposite of that. I would guess there is some extenuating circumstances in your example.