We should start an AW pool on where Gustav is gonna hit.
My spidey-sense is it's gonna hit Nawlins, but "only" as a strong Cat 1.
That's a thoroughly "but what the fuck do I know?" guesstimate, but I'm basing it on two things:
1. The models have swung west and east but always seem to settle out somewhere around the Ponchatrain.
2. It's statistically unlikely NO would get another hit from another Cat-3+ storm like Katrina. Katrina was a 396-year-storm (i.e., you'd expect a storm like that once in 400 years...no kidding, that's how people who figure these things, figure these things).
That being said, any kind of hurricane hit is going to fuck the Big Easy up pretty good.