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NEWS Is the pivot to China a bunch of bullshit?

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
It is true that she's a random person, but that doesn't strike me as something to lie about.
How do you know it’s a she? How do you know it’s a human and not a bot posting? Your line of argumentation is not how the Navy does geopolitical analysis.
in a party whose policy positions revolve around “America first,” where does defense of Taiwan/Phikippines/SE Asia fit in?
I’m not in a political party, but there are basically three reasons to defend Taiwan:
1. They are a free people deserving to be autonomous and choose their own form of govt (moral argument)
2. Allowing Taiwan to be invaded would have negative follow-on effects on freedom and democracy across Asia, and embolden China (domino effect)
3. Taiwan makes 90% of the world’s semiconductors, which are necessary for technology and therefore also for war (pragmatic)

I’d imagine the “America first” crowd would try to take away reason #3 by rebuilding the American semiconductor manufacturing base, and moving those supply chains and jobs back to CONUS so the US is better able to withstand global supply chain shocks, and be more self sufficient in our production. Seems reasonable to me.

That doesn’t mean the US would ignore reasons to defend Taiwan #1 or #2, but it makes the decision a lot clearer-headed than, for example, some hotheaded TV analyst calling for a “mad scramble to prevent China from controlling all the world’s computer chips.”

It’s worthwhile to note that Taiwan, as a democracy, is susceptible to influence in elections. China could very easily take over Taiwan nonmilitarily simply by the Taiwanese people or their elected leaders, over time, gradually voting for more integration with China. That fact makes it all the more reasonable to try to obviate rationale #3 beforehand by making America more self sufficient in its computer chip manufacturing.
 
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Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
How do you know it’s a she? How do you know it’s a human and not a bot posting? Your line of argumentation is not how the Navy does geopolitical analysis.
Do you think I could be a bot?🤖 For one, because she has been posting since before artificial intelligence was advanced enough to create bots that could post in the way she does (and I still don't think they are advanced enough yet). I've also conversed with her, and if she is a bot, she's the most advanced bot I've ever seen (and most emotional). Also she doesn't hide who she is, she has videos of herself on her blog. And I am not engaging in geopolitical analysis for the Navy. If I was, I absolutely would not cite one person's blog as evidence for how Ukrainians think, because even if it seems reasonable, it's not enough evidence. I'd need to scour multiple Ukrainian blogs and also talk to Ukrainian people and other things.
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
How do you know it’s a she? How do you know it’s a human and not a bot posting? Your line of argumentation is not how the Navy does geopolitical analysis.

I’m not in a political party, but there are basically three reasons to defend Taiwan:
1. They are a free people deserving to be autonomous and choose their own form of govt (moral argument)
2. Allowing Taiwan to be invaded would have negative follow-on effects on freedom and democracy across Asia, and embolden China (domino effect)
3. Taiwan makes 90% of the world’s semiconductors, which are necessary for technology and therefore also for war (pragmatic)

I’d imagine the “America first” crowd would try to take away reason #3 by rebuilding the American semiconductor manufacturing base, and moving those supply chains and jobs back to CONUS so the US is better able to withstand global supply chain shocks, and be more self sufficient in our production. Seems reasonable to me.

That doesn’t mean the US would ignore reasons to defend Taiwan #1 or #2, but it makes the decision a lot clearer-headed than, for example, some hotheaded TV analyst calling for a “mad scramble to prevent China from controlling all the world’s computer chips.”

It’s worthwhile to note that Taiwan, as a democracy, is susceptible to influence in elections. China could very easily take over Taiwan nonmilitarily simply by the Taiwanese people or their elected leaders, over time, gradually voting for more integration with China. That fact makes it all the more reasonable to try to obviate rationale #3 beforehand by making America more self sufficient in its computer chip manufacturing.
Did reason 1 effectively work on the MAGA crowd who wants to abandon Ukraine?
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
His discrimination against certain ethnicities in the Donbass reason was a big motivator for Russia to invade. Unfortunately, Russia didn't effectively assess popular opinion in the region of preferring Putin over Zelenskyy, nor their actual will to fight.

YGTBFSM. That 'discrimination' was Ukraine limiting pension payments to folks in occupied Ukraine, when the Ukrainians had no way to know whether or not those pension payments were not being stolen or laundered by the Russian occupiers.

Those details aside, THAT WAS NOT A REASON PUTIN INVADED UKRAINE. You are swallowing Russian propaganda Hook, Line and Sinker. That is like believing Hitler's excuse of occupying Czechoslovakia was to protect the Germans there or invading Poland was because the Poles attacked a radio antenna on the border. Putin wants to reoccupy Ukraine and reincorporate it into what he believes is 'Greater Russia'. Period.

Seriously, I can't believe I have to spell that out.

Sure, compared to Putin he looks like a saint. But he is a successful politician in a post-soviet country.

That doesn't mean he is a corrupt autocrat.
 

Spekkio

He bowls overhand.
YGTBFSM. That 'discrimination' was Ukraine limiting pension payments to folks in occupied Ukraine, when the Ukrainians had no way to know whether or not those pension payments were not being stolen or laundered by the Russian occupiers.

Those details aside, THAT WAS NOT A REASON PUTIN INVADED UKRAINE. You are swallowing Russian propaganda Hook, Line and Sinker. That is like believing Hitler's excuse of occupying Czechoslovakia was to protect the Germans there or invading Poland was because the Poles attacked a radio antenna on the border. Putin wants to reoccupy Ukraine and reincorporate it into what he believes is 'Greater Russia'. Period.

Seriously, I can't believe I have to spell that out.



That doesn't mean he is a corrupt autocrat.
When I said "motivator," I meant "that was a big reason why Putin thought he could be successful."

As in, a motivator for Hitler's invasion of Russia in 1941 was that he thought that he could topple the Soviet Army before it reconstituted after Stalin's purge. Like Putin, he was wrong. And like Putin, he also had other political motivations for conducting the invasion, but an assessment of whether you have sufficient military forces to win is a big part of the calculus to start the operation.

And please point out where I called Zelenskyy an autocrat?

Take a chill pill, dude. I'm on team "support Ukraine's fight for sovereignty."
 
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Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
When I said "motivator," I meant "that was a big reason why Putin thought he could be successful."

As in, a motivator for Hitler's invasion of Russia in 1941 was that he thought that he could topple the Soviet Army before it reconstituted after Stalin's purge.
Like Putin, he was wrong. And like Putin, he also had other political motivations for conducting the invasion, but an assessment of whether you have sufficient military forces to win is a big part of the calculus to start the operation.

images


Not sure I'm following how discriminatory pension payments were a motivator, but okay.

And please point out where I called Zelenskyy an autocrat?

No, but there is certainly a implication that he is somehow dirty in your posts.

Take a chill pill, dude. I'm on team "support Ukraine's fight for sovereignty."

I get exasperated when seeing blatantly obvious Russian propaganda repeated with any credibility.
 

Spekkio

He bowls overhand.
So we're at the point of calling it "Russian Propaganda" when a British defense and security think tank writes an academic analysis on Russia's motivators? Or did you just stop at the acronym rusi and assume the pub was Russian?
 
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Swanee

Cereal Killer
pilot
None
Contributor
How do you know it’s a she? How do you know it’s a human and not a bot posting? Your line of argumentation is not how the Navy does geopolitical analysis.

I’m not in a political party, but there are basically three reasons to defend Taiwan:
1. They are a free people deserving to be autonomous and choose their own form of govt (moral argument)
2. Allowing Taiwan to be invaded would have negative follow-on effects on freedom and democracy across Asia, and embolden China (domino effect)
3. Taiwan makes 90% of the world’s semiconductors, which are necessary for technology and therefore also for war (pragmatic)

I’d imagine the “America first” crowd would try to take away reason #3 by rebuilding the American semiconductor manufacturing base, and moving those supply chains and jobs back to CONUS so the US is better able to withstand global supply chain shocks, and be more self sufficient in our production. Seems reasonable to me.

That doesn’t mean the US would ignore reasons to defend Taiwan #1 or #2, but it makes the decision a lot clearer-headed than, for example, some hotheaded TV analyst calling for a “mad scramble to prevent China from controlling all the world’s computer chips.”

It’s worthwhile to note that Taiwan, as a democracy, is susceptible to influence in elections. China could very easily take over Taiwan nonmilitarily simply by the Taiwanese people or their elected leaders, over time, gradually voting for more integration with China. That fact makes it all the more reasonable to try to obviate rationale #3 beforehand by making America more self sufficient in its computer chip manufacturing.

3. Is going to take a long time.




I also believe that China is playing the super long game- they'd much rather to eventually have Taiwan democractically elect to join the PRC.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
3. Is going to take a long time.




I also believe that China is playing the super long game- they'd much rather to eventually have Taiwan democractically elect to join the PRC.
Shack

And if China can integrate Taiwan democratically, that would totally undermine any US rationale to intervene based on moral grounds. All the more reason to build new chip plants here on US soil.
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
The reasons I listed why the US might defend Taiwan are just general, not specific to political party/faction.
But you could make the same arguments (at least 1 and 3 if not number 2 in Europe) for Ukraine, and it hasn't swayed the MAGA faction towards supporting them is my point.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
But you could make the same arguments (at least 1 and 3 if not number 2 in Europe) for Ukraine, and it hasn't swayed the MAGA faction towards supporting them is my point.
I think the “America first” crowd (not necessarily the same as MAGA) would not be convinced to defend Taiwan or Ukraine based on moral grounds or domino effect reasons.
 
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