Well, assuming a Trumpain "implement this immediately" transition plan...
In the short term, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft (among a handful of others who disproportionately hire H1B workers) will see devaluation of stocks that will lower the overall value of the S&P 500 index. Many people will lose a few percentage points off their retirement funds while these companies restructure and commence recruitment campaigns.
In the mid-term, the companies recover by raising wages and scalping talent off of smaller companies that don't rely on H1B employees. The smaller companies go out of business.
In the long-term, these companies invest resources into wholistic recruiting campaigns that also involves scholarships and advertising campaigns to get more Americans to study STEM. Once the American pool equals or exceeds the former H1B pool, the companies go back to lowering wages.
Roughly 10-15% of research at universities is funded with federal tax dollars. The outlier is MIT, which has 50% of its funding coming from federal dollars. I can't find why that is, but I suspect that MIT is a research institution that is connected with many defense-industrial R&D projects.
The rub is that I can't find a way to meaningfully measure the efficieny of the federal dollars going to universities. At least when the private sector invests, they are doing so by accepting risk of going out of business. This not only motivates people to research relevant topics, but also to produce tangible results.
