It just doesn't work; never has, never will .....I'm just wondering because .... I'm a poker player so I guess I just like to look at the whole and figure out the odds of selecting particular platforms.....
I know you guys are desperately searchin' for quantifiable answers (aren't we all?) to the "what % and WILL I GET WHAT I WANT" questions .... but it just can't be predicted with ANY sort of real odds. Things change in Naval Air and they always have ... that's the only constant: change.
Example: nearly 40 of us (the top 1/3 of the jet classes from a month and a half in the two Texas Advanced Jet bases) got sent to Lemoore for A-4's -- the Navy needed warm bodies in the Bantam Bomber and needed 'em NOW!!! A month and a half later, after sitting in a pool for a few weeks, the Navy shit-canned two -27C CVA's, gave ALL the attached squadron A-4's to the Israeli's, and said: "Sorry fellas, we don't have airplanes or seats for you .... "
So in the middle of a "hot" Naval Air war, the top 40 guys for a quantifiable period got "reselected" for seats -- only problem was there were'nt any .... 2 guys got selected for follow-on Fleet seats, 10-15 got plowed back to the TRACOM, and the rest .... got desk jobs. The two most egregious examples of doing well and then getting screwed by UNCLE that I remember received orders to become the BOQ officer @ Lemoore and the GCA Watch Officer @ Midway Island -- I kid you not, those were the billets.
So you can't predict with any certainty --- you never could; you never will .... the ONLY thing you can do to help your chances of getting your "particular platform" is to show up, stay healthy, and do as well as you can .... and that's it.