NATO Declares Russia an Enemy - Your take.

[Brett327]

The fact that you think Russia is still socialist or aims to be socialist, and that anything you disagree with is somehow a far left position isn't surprising. I just realized that this place really isn't worth my time anymore. Keep watching XYZ news and their internet subsidiaries. Keep thinking Libya is better off after 2011, that Assad chemical attacked his own citizens for no reason, that there were WMDs in Iraq, that the "moderate rebels" that the CIA armed and funded didn't go on to become ISIS leadership, and that the beauty of this nation is that everyone can express their views, even people who believe a child can be trans and put on hormone blockers, or that honest Christians should be put in prison. I'm sure some of you guys are alright, and I wish you all the best, but I'm done. Goodbye.

Really throwing the whole kitchen sink into that post, aren't you. At any rate, it's fascinating to me that someone who purports to have an enlightened view of the geopolitical landscape, just now realized that a career as a Naval Officer might just be aligned with furthering the evils of Western imperialism... whatever the fuck that still means in the 21st century. Best of luck sorting all of that out.

 

[jmcquate]

Just because..............

 

[Randy Daytona]

This is a fairly idiotic comment. I have a feeling our old salon-socialist friend is back. Russia isn’t in a place where they need to worry about a single leg being kicked out from their stool….they are balancing on a single stick…gas. The US can out produce Russia in gas in about two months if production is ramped up and the Russian economy would collapse in about another two. Add to that the simple fact that China is not remotely an “ally” with Russia in any sense. China, while certainly a military peer in term of numbers simply is not in terms of experience. China has never…not once…successfully projected power under threat from a peer and while taking Taiwan is quite possible, it won’t be a matter of days and it won’t be easy. In fact, if China takes Taiwan it will mark the end of Xi’s rule (and likely that of the Communist party) simply because China created a monster they must feed…a Middle Class. Fighting Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, and probably most of SE Asia plus the U.S. will drain their artificial economy at a pace China can not afford.

As for the so-called “west,” it has been in “decline” since the concept was created in the minds of academics. It was never what we imagined and will simply no “go away.”

Griz,
Any idea what level of emphasis China has on retaking the land ceded to Russia in the Treaty (Convention ?) of Peking of 1860?, ie., if Taiwan is a intensity of 10, where do you think the Far East sits?

 

[Hotdogs]

The fact that you think Russia is still socialist or aims to be socialist, and that anything you disagree with is somehow a far left position isn't surprising. I just realized that this place really isn't worth my time anymore. Keep watching XYZ news and their internet subsidiaries. Keep thinking Libya is better off after 2011, that Assad chemical attacked his own citizens for no reason, that there were WMDs in Iraq, that the "moderate rebels" that the CIA armed and funded didn't go on to become ISIS leadership, and that the beauty of this nation is that everyone can express their views, even people who believe a child can be trans and put on hormone blockers, or that honest Christians should be put in prison. I'm sure some of you guys are alright, and I wish you all the best, but I'm done. Goodbye.

I was really looking forward to you putting that all together. The commentary was going in the right direction to break out the popcorn for everyone. What a shame.

 

[Spekkio]

Fighting Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, and probably most of SE Asia plus the U.S. will drain their artificial economy at a pace China can not afford.

Interesting. Most of our senior officers and civilian strategic SMEs are banking on little if any multi-national support in a war against China.

 

[Brett327]

Interesting. Most of our senior officers and civilian strategic SMEs are banking on little if any multi-national support in a war against China.

According to whom? Japan and Australia are fairly well aligned with the US on this, but if you're talking about Germany, well, OK.

 

[Spekkio]

According to whom? Japan and Australia are fairly well aligned with the US on this, but if you're talking about Germany, well, OK.

According to any O-6+ who has given a briefing on the topic.

Japan doesn't maintain a military capable of offensive operations, and Austrialia doesn't really give a shit about Taiwan.

 

[Brett327]

Japan doesn't maintain a military capable of offensive operations, and Austrialia doesn't really give a shit about Taiwan.

This statement is completely absurd.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Guys please don't amuse yourself: there won't be any real fight between Russian and Ukranian militaries that clearly marked as such and allowed to act as such. Putin is not a master of war, he is an avid explorer of specops realm. Let alone Ukranian leader Vlad Zelenskiy who uses every opportunity to calm the rough seas.
Of course Russain Army dominates Eastern Europe but Russian economy wouldn't support any war: Crimea, Donbass, Belarus, now KZ and most of all Chechnya are too expensive to Russia on everyday basis, and any war will break already weak economy within weeks. It may be far from evident but stability of Russian currency is not linked to a storages of gas and oil: since both pumper and pipeliner are under state's control, Russia cannot influence stock prices by volumes, like Saudis.
So, please note that each time we are buying buckets of popcorn watching Russian news, there something is going on around China - unnoticed and unexplainable.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

In 2010, Ukraine was not a country

Nothing new. Samuel Huntington in his "Clash of Civilizations" stated in 1994 that Ukraine is typical "torn country", and this was true then. But in this century the gap between Ukranian elites and ordinary people became significantly narrower, surprisingly, by mostly mutual activity of Russia and NATO and, to a greatest degree, by the Crimea annexion. Look, Russia is still merchantile export economy just like it have been for the last 300 years, and this in itself is the main factor in contradiction with globalization process. So within the Russian economy logic, the annexation of new territories, even former Soviet, has absolutely no sence if that territory doesn't have its own significant sources of gas or oil. Thus both Russian economy and industry this time contradict Russian politicsas deep as the roots level. Thus, Putin reaps what had been sown when he restored an Empire. Note that this Empire is not equal to, say, British one - as they say, "Britain HAD an empire but Russia WAS an empire, and probably is". But there are the Moscow elites beneath Putin, neither hedged from that empire nor detached from it, and now they are in a threefold struggle: national leader tries to push the whole thing in his direction, national economy clearly resists, and national elites wait for the moment to support the force which will prevail.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Ukraine is not "obviously Russian".

Really so. Historically, Ukrainians are probably the only Slavic people with no respect to a vertically built monarchy. What it always resembled is US Wild West, i.e. Frontier. The word "Ukraine" means "fringe", "outskirt". And people there always had the taste of crude freedom. The problem is neighbour - Russia. While Ukraine had never been seapower state, it several times shared fate of Athens, Carthage, Venice and Genoa when the big land empire, first Ottoman Turkey then Tsarist Russia seized it and used as a greenhouse/wheatfield, exporting wheat and dooming the Ukranians to starve. The word "cossak" stems from that time and deeds, when people fled to borderless steppes and settled in the wilderness, though the core cossak breed is of no Slavic blood, they are rather of Turk origin.
Yesterday I was in Kyiv and spoke to friends, they just don't believe the Russia is so stupid to make an offence militarily.
Remember, Putin is not Napoleon, Friedrich der Grosse, Peter the Great, Winston Churchill or George Patton: he is rather kinda Richelieu or Pope Alexander VI Borgia, his victories are not military ones but political firstly.
The main reason to hope there won't be any war is that with essentially no smart weapon in both adversaries' possession, collateral death toll will be terrible on both Russian and Ukranian soil.

 

[Spekkio]

This statement is completely absurd.

Sure thing.

 

[Griz882]

Interesting. Most of our senior officers and civilian strategic SMEs are banking on little if any multi-national support in a war against China.

I rather doubt that. In essence, they won’t have a choice…it is an ocean, not a chessboard.

 

[Griz882]

Griz,
Any idea what level of emphasis China has on retaking the land ceded to Russia in the Treaty (Convention ?) of Peking of 1860?, ie., if Taiwan is a intensity of 10, where do you think the Far East sits?

I don’t see China looking to expand their land mass rather their dominion over the Pacific and control of the Pacific economy (and thus a significant hold on the global economy). Dig out your old college text books and look up a map of Japan’s 1930’s vision of a “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” (GEACPS) and you have a perfect view of what we see today.

With all this in mind, China will gladly use Russia as a lever to pull US military power toward a European crisis, but they won’t pitch in or even help Russia. Tensions over Taiwan are, as you note, at a 10 but I think they’ll stay right there. China needs Taiwan to fold without a fight, they want them to say “enough” and then trap them in a negotiation much like the transfer of Hong Kong (“We’ll honor this and that…until we don’t”).

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

With all this in mind, China will gladly use Russia as a lever to pull US military power toward a European crisis, but they won’t pitch in or even help Russia.

Indeed. Look, Oriental people are and had always been both vengeful and vindictive. The main Russian Far East port of Vladivostok as well as lion's share of Maritime Province it dominates, are Russian as a result of very unfair agreement by which Russians bought that soil from China on terms almost equal to famous Manhattan deal, in 1859 - for nothing, and rather by force. The City of Vladivostok had been settled a year later. Russian Emperor Alexander II had learned of Commodore Perry voyage and, given the actual loss of Crimea as a naval base after Crimean War in 1856 (yes Russia once lost Crimean port of Sevastopol for almost twenty years), stated something like "I want something on Far East, too". Weak Chinese government had neither will nor sources to oppose. What they preserved was offense and hidden rage. So even now, when the land shipping route from China to Europe via Russian railroads would actually render the naval blokade of China by USN useless, China made just small amount of investment in that way, while Mr. Putin has waited and still waits much more, unable or unvilling to pay for that transport infrastructure by Russian money. Well, I concur - China doesn't and won't help Russia in Russian problems with the West.