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Norks' New Strategy?

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
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Super Moderator
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I don’t think so. If you mean to include terrorists or nationalist organization in the list of “nations” you might be right, but there are 195 nations in the world and at least 180 buy and sell weapons in a well defined market that NK is not part of. That said, I’m not sure where the Holy See or Tuvalu get their arms.

There are countries in Africa and Asia that buy North Korean arms, just because it isn't well-publicized doesn't mean that it doesn't happen.
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
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There are countries in Africa and Asia that buy North Korean arms, just because it isn't well-publicized doesn't mean that it doesn't happen.
So…basically we are in agreement. As I noted (using a different study but arriving at the same conclusion) only a tiny portion of mostly tiny nations are buying NK weapons. Essentially the Triangle of Evil (Russia, NK, and Iran) are trading among themselves and then to a handful of failed states.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
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Super Moderator
Contributor
I don’t think so. If you mean to include terrorists or nationalist organization in the list of “nations” you might be right, but there are 195 nations in the world and at least 180 buy and sell weapons in a well defined market that NK is not part of. That said, I’m not sure where the Holy See or Tuvalu get their arms.

So…basically we are in agreement. As I noted (using a different study but arriving at the same conclusion) only a tiny portion of mostly tiny nations are buying NK weapons. Essentially the Triangle of Evil (Russia, NK, and Iran) are trading among themselves and then to a handful of failed states.

The article is by no means all inclusive and their sales, to include ones that are 'laundered' through front companies in third countries that knowingly turn a blind eye towards the practice, goes well beyond terrorists, Tuvalu or the triangle you reference.

As for a 'well defined' market, that grossly understates just how opaque the international arms market actually is.
 
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Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
The article is by no means all inclusive and their sales, to include ones that are 'laundered' through front companies in third countries that knowingly turn a blind eye towards the practice, goes well beyond terrorists,, Tuvalu or the triangle you reference.

As for a 'well defined' market, that grossly understates just how opaque the international arms market actually is.
OK…you seem to be implying that NK is selling to “X” number of “bad states and that number is large. There is nothing out there to indicate that. The report you mention notes 11 African states and those are buying either training (who cares) or light munitions. Add to that Russia, Syria, and Iran and you still have a puny fraction of the global arms market and maybe two bad actors who could cause serious regional harm and one that could cause international harm.

As I noted before, we basically agree but we have two different world views. Kind of a half-full, half-empty thing.
 

Flash

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Super Moderator
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OK…you seem to be implying that NK is selling to “X” number of “bad states and that number is large. There is nothing out there to indicate that. The report you mention notes 11 African states and those are buying either training (who cares) or light munitions. Add to that Russia, Syria, and Iran and you still have a puny fraction of the global arms market and maybe two bad actors who could cause serious regional harm and one that could cause international harm.

I'm not implying it is large, just pointing out the fact that it is much larger than you stated earlier in the thread and includes countries that are not pariahs, in a few cases our 'friends and/or allies'.

Why do I keep harping on it? Details matter. Also, while North Korea's arms trade is small compared to the larger arms sellers they still make an outsized impact by supplying arms to folks who would otherwise not be able to get them, much like Iran supplying arms to the Huthis, Hezbollah and Hamas resulting in them having a global impact on trade, among other things.

Another point, that you can see reported on if you dig deep enough, is that the less 'well defined' arms trade is substantial enough to fuel disruption in less stable regions and enables countries that otherwise would not be able to buy or sell arms to do so. I am not talking about Iran or other 'pariah' countries directly buying or selling arms but trade through third-party countries that includes 'friends and/or allies' of ours, who often knowingly or willfully turn a blind eye due to a variety of factors. Just how do you think the Iranians can still fly their F-4's, F-5's and F-14's? It isn't just their engineering acumen or their more flexible safety standards. For a longtime international pariah like North Korea that area is one that they are certain to be neck deep in.
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
I'm not implying it is large, just pointing out the fact that it is much larger than you stated earlier in the thread and includes countries that are not pariahs, in a few cases our 'friends and/or allies'.

Why do I keep harping on it? Details matter. Also, while North Korea's arms trade is small compared to the larger arms sellers they still make an outsized impact by supplying arms to folks who would otherwise not be able to get them, much like Iran supplying arms to the Huthis, Hezbollah and Hamas resulting in them having a global impact on trade, among other things.

Another point, that you can see reported on if you dig deep enough, is that the less 'well defined' arms trade is substantial enough to fuel disruption in less stable regions and enables countries that otherwise would not be able to buy or sell arms to do so. I am not talking about Iran or other 'pariah' countries directly buying or selling arms but trade through third-party countries that includes 'friends and/or allies' of ours, who often knowingly or willfully turn a blind eye due to a variety of factors. Just how do you think the Iranians can still fly their F-4's, F-5's and F-14's? It isn't just their engineering acumen or their more flexible safety standards. For a longtime international pariah like North Korea that area is one that they are certain to be neck deep in.
Now we are talking about two things. NK shipping small arms to small nations is simply every day since about 1960. It apparently isn’t worth our time to stop them. The other side black market arms trade (the one keeping F-14’s in the air) and that is an entirely different beast. I can’t imagine a single nation that doesn’t have some type of private corporate set up selling arms through various blind vendors to guys we don’t like - to include the U.S. So yeah, sure, there is plenty of illegal stuff moving around a market all its own.
 

Flash

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Super Moderator
Contributor
Norks don’t have a lot of nations out there willing to buy their stuff.

Now we are talking about two things. NK shipping small arms to small nations is simply every day since about 1960. It apparently isn’t worth our time to stop them. The other side black market arms trade (the one keeping F-14’s in the air) and that is an entirely different beast. I can’t imagine a single nation that doesn’t have some type of private corporate set up selling arms through various blind vendors to guys we don’t like - to include the U.S. So yeah, sure, there is plenty of illegal stuff moving around a market all its own.

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Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
I’ll make it easy.

1. There are 194 nations in the world…you have identified 13 that want to buy NK weapons. That is not a lot, barely 7% of the pantheon of nations.

2. Evil doers like Iran and her F-14 fleet are simply not getting their new F-14 stuff from NK, it is coming from the black marke and yes, those on the black market sell NK stuff through back channels just as they sell US stuff through back channels.. Those who buy and sell weapons illegally across the black market live in…probably…all 194 nations which, of course, includes the USA and NK. These are bad people. (In one bizarre case an Israeli company got caught trying to sell F-14 components to Iran)

Number 1 and 2 are two different things. NK, even if we don’t like them, have every right to sell their military crap globe wide and we have every right to sanction them or their buyers if we want. BUT, in the global scheme of things NK doesn’t even fit in the top 40 arms exporters of the world meaning their provide less than 0.2% of the military stuff floating around out there. North Korea simply isn’t a great concern in this issue.

 

Brett327

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FWIW, I wouldn't overstate the degree to which Iranian F-14 rely on black market parts. That has been mitigated, as I understand it, for the most part. They are making a lot of it indigenously now.
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
FWIW, I wouldn't overstate the degree to which Iranian F-14 rely on black market parts. That has been mitigated, as I understand it, for the most part. They are making a lot of it indigenously now.
I think I have read the same. But are they still relying on an old stock of modified HAWK missiles as Phoenix substitutes?
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
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Super Moderator
Contributor
1. There are 194 nations in the world…you have identified 13 that want to buy NK weapons. That is not a lot, barely 7% of the pantheon of nations.

Just maybe, maybe...it is who they sell it to that is the problem, not to how many. And that number is after a very cursory search on Google, which ain't going to give you the full story.

2. Evil doers like Iran and her F-14 fleet are simply not getting their new F-14 stuff from NK, it is coming from the black marke and yes, those on the black market sell NK stuff through back channels just as they sell US stuff through back channels.. Those who buy and sell weapons illegally across the black market live in…probably…all 194 nations which, of course, includes the USA and NK. These are bad people. (In one bizarre case an Israeli company got caught trying to sell F-14 components to Iran)

I wasn't saying that North Korea was supplying F-14/4/5 parts to Iran, just using that as an example of how opaque the arms sales market is and trying to illuminate the limitations of what you can find about the trade stumbling around on the internets. Simply put, there is plenty of 'gray market' arms sales that involve state actors or states themselves that are deliberately hidden under layers of shell companies and corruption. Some of the states that play in this area happen to among countries that we continue to call friends and allies, and they are part of the arms trade that is likely how Iran has at least partially been able to keep their American-built gear (not all F-14 parts are unique) going for over 35 years after we stopped supplying them parts, either explicitly or illicitly.

To put it plainly, what is publicly available about state to state arms sales is only part of the big picture, including North Korea and its arms trade.

BUT, in the global scheme of things NK doesn’t even fit in the top 40 arms exporters of the world meaning their provide less than 0.2% of the military stuff floating around out there. North Korea simply isn’t a great concern in this issue.

You could not be more wrong. Relying on simple numbers an overly simplistic way of looking at arms transfers, North Korea's worldwide arms trade is of VERY great concern for many reasons.
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
Just maybe, maybe...it is who they sell it to that is the problem, not to how many. And that number is after a very cursory search on Google, which ain't going to give you the full story.



I wasn't saying that North Korea was supplying F-14/4/5 parts to Iran, just using that as an example of how opaque the arms sales market is and trying to illuminate the limitations of what you can find about the trade stumbling around on the internets. Simply put, there is plenty of 'gray market' arms sales that involve state actors or states themselves that are deliberately hidden under layers of shell companies and corruption. Some of the states that play in this area happen to among countries that we continue to call friends and allies, and they are part of the arms trade that is likely how Iran has at least partially been able to keep their American-built gear (not all F-14 parts are unique) going for over 35 years after we stopped supplying them parts, either explicitly or illicitly.

To put it plainly, what is publicly available about state to state arms sales is only part of the big picture, including North Korea and its arms trade.



You could not be more wrong. Relying on simple numbers an overly simplistic way of looking at arms transfers, North Korea's worldwide arms trade is of VERY great concern for many reasons.
OK

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Brett327

Well-Known Member
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Super Moderator
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I think I have read the same. But are they still relying on an old stock of modified HAWK missiles as Phoenix substitutes?
Can't speak to specifics, but why would they focus on maintaining AIM-54? It's an absolutely horrible A/A missile by modern standards. The indigenous stuff they make is probably much better and sustainable.
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
Can't speak to specifics, but why would they focus on maintaining AIM-54? It's an absolutely horrible A/A missile by modern standards. The indigenous stuff they make is probably much better and sustainable.
No doubt you’d have better information, most of what I know is basic stuff I can find on open sources. Here is the article I mentioned.

 
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