Method to the apparent madness
paddle562 said:
The navy works in weird ways sometimes. ... It's been said before but it's all about the needs of the navy.
BUPERS looks to the outyears in estimating how many fleet seats (flying billets) they will need. The outyears are in the POM (Program Objectives Memorandum), not current year of budget execution or the next year but the six years after that. :sleep_125 If the composition of naval aviation remains stable over that same time period, i.e., a steady number of airwings with the number and type aircraft remaining stable, then they can predict each year how many pilots and NFOs they will need each year. Then they make estimates - best guesses - about retention because that impacts the inventory of bodies that can fill the seats. This is not easy because any given officer can resign after their obliserv is over. They then back-track through the flight school pipeline to determine how many must enter to get the output they need (after any attrition). In other words, the number of SNA/SNFOs entering into any fiscal year is a number with reflects those aforementioned outyears. The biggest variable is likely retention of senior LTs. A swing in this factor can have an immediate impact - immediate - on SNA/SNFO slots.

Then some sort of quota system is imposed on USNA & NROTC regarding SNA/SNFO slots after commissioning. Take a look at the total SNA/SNFO coming out of USNA vs NROTC (a harder number, probably, to find). OSC may be a source of "fast-fills" to any designator based upon needs in the fiscal year of commissioning after USNA & NROTC numbers are factored in.
If you can look down range to see major swings in retention (real hard to predict) or farther into the future (4-6 years) regarding the number of airwings (probably stable) or a change in type aircraft (like EA-6B to EA-18G; S-3 retirement; number of P-8s vs current number of P-3Cs) then you can get a sense of how the input of SNA/SNFOs might look like to the Bureau weenies carving up a given fiscal year of NROTC/USNA/OCS commissionings. They are trying to put numbers to a moving target. They get it right most of the time at the macro level; but not all the time. But Mids can't see that far down range typically and might tend to resign themselves to being treated like so much flotsam and jetsam at the mercy of BUPERS.
Your over-arching advice is tried and true. Do good, the rest will take care of itself.
