Just a few things I'll toss in:
NROTC is very restrictive with regard to designators.** You can only go pilot, NFO, SWO, sub, specwar, and EOD...feel like I'm forgetting something. You can only do intel, IW, or supply if you are NPQed from everything else. So those are special cases. So don't think "Eh, I could just do intel and at least work in aviation!" because you probably can't. That is possible out of OCS, and is exactly what I did. The AF keeps pretty much everything open to ROTC. They are really desperate for ABMs right now, at least according to my sister and my AF recruiter from before I joined the Navy. If the thought of being a SWO keeps you up at night, NROTC might not be for you, but I can't speak on the numbers.
You also don't really have a summer basic training/boot camp type deal in NROTC at the moment. AFROTC does. Four weeks in Alabama and Mississippi, playing army in the woods for a good amount of it. My sister went through it and got to have paintball fights with humvees and stuff. I was a bit jealous, sounds more fun than moboards at OCS. That might make one program more or less appealing, but shouldn't be the sole factor on which you base your decision, or even too high up.
Another comment: you want jets, which is a bag of worms that you gotta be careful with around here. I'll let the winged dudes explain why it is impossible to figure out what *your* chances are, but there are differences in what will happen between services. Much like "which service would you be happier in if flying didn't work out?" you need to ask "what would I want to fly if jets don't work out?" In the AF, chances are you'd be flying heavies, or even maybe drones (although drone pilot is a different designator now). There are few if any helo slots in a given class in pilot training. In the Navy, you'd probably end up in helos or something like P-8s. Part of the reason I chose the Navy was that I thought the non-jet options were much more appealing than those in the AF. Most of the aircraft land on ships, and even those that don't, such as the P-8 or EP-3, seem to have a more interesting mission than a KC-135. Not an aviator, but just thought that my own thought process from when I was looking at my options might be helpful.
**Not so much with STA-21, but I think that is more of its own thing and not NROTC per se.