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Pax River quietly doubles its F-35B "population"

HeyJoe

Fly Navy! ...or USMC
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
So? higher already knew this so they stood up a RAG anyways? There?s a CO and a cadre of Marine pilots in Eglin that think they are getting a jet by the end of this year and eleven more jets next year? really sucks to be them - DIFOP only to fly a sim.

(Ear-muffs for you young motivated wanna-be?s)?

Whoa, Tex! Put away your six-shooter. You're mixing apples and ornages and not understanding what SECDEF said or the implications of same. The DoD Budgeting process has a 2-3 year lag time inherent in the time to takes to build a house of cards and work it through multiple kabuki dances at CN/CMC level, SECDEF, White House and finally the 8-12 month gauntlet of Congressional action and back through White House. What's that have to do with standing up of the RAG? To have facilities in place, MILCON (that's Military Construction) requests have to be placed in the Kubuki dance before the normal requests so they had to get the facilities in place based on earliest PROJECTED arrival of people and aircraft. Typically, Fleet Introduction Teams are operating years before an aircraft arrives and JSF has followed the Air Force practice of creating a Special Mission Office (SMO) under auspices of CNAF/CNAL in Norfolk to work all the fielding details. There aren't any aircraft to fly during that timeframe and ALCON know it. When the RAG cadre begin to form there is more paperwork to do before the first article arrives on the ramp so your comments are very naive about need for aircraft and pilots being DIFOP without something to fly.

Regardless, SECDEF is less than a month away from presenting the FY11-15 Budget (goes to hill second week in Feb as President's Budget). His announcement concerned the decision he made (as recommended by his staff review of the service POM submissions late last year) affecting FY-11-15. What that means to your friends at Eglin is far less than you are getting worked up about. The aircraft buy in FY-11 won't show up until FY13 at best so they will likely be rolling by then. As to the aircraft they expect in short term, aircraft showing up now were paid for in FY08 or FY09. It's way too hard to go back and change what's been contracted for already. Now, if the F-35B program discovers a major Safety of Flight issue, that's another story that could delay arrival of aircraft.

As to RAG cadre not having aircraft to fly as expected....it is rare for any program to execute exactly as planned although Growler development and production deliveries were pretty impressive, but they used an existing airframe and a hot production line drastically reducing risk. Even if aircraft get delayed, being assigned to be a stand-up cadre for any aircraft whether it be for developmental/operational test or RAG involves a lot of preparation work and endless meetings so they're going to be busy. Anyone who takes orders to these type assignments needs to be fully aware of that fact so getting worked up about it is a waste of time. As to my comment about the news being no surprise, some of those meetings involve design and status reviews on engineering changes proposed to address issues to either make aircraft safe to fly or reliable or effective. That is far more important than getting an aircraft as predicted several years ago.

I'm not surprised though, it?s all about perception I suppose ? higher has probably known for a few years that the F-35B was going to slide but has put up a front, a ?smiley face that things are great!?, in order to keep funding, etc. If that?s the case, the Corps has fucked a lot of dudes in the Harrier & Hornet communities ?cause those fellas have become expendable?not just the young pilots but maintainers included. The jets are falling apart and are maintenance nightmares. Unless you?re deployed, you?re barely flying? a lot of dudes coming off their first fleet tour have an IA under their belt and only 400-500 hours in over-populated communities ? maintainers are working their ass off to keep a handful of jets up. I know of several dudes in the last couple years who had to get waivers because they didn't meet their 100hours a year 3710 requirement- that's Third World AF shit IMO.

JSF is an ambitious program and nobody could know whether it was going to slide or not. Issues come out in design reviews and action determined to address them. Sometimes, the proposed fixes work, sometimes it's back to drawing board. And that's a simplistic view of the complexity of RDT&E involved in fielding a new platform. Any savvy betting person wouldn't wager a dime that a program like JSF will be on time, but the way the budget process works, you have to forecast a timeline and adjust it annually or before major design reviews or acquisition milestones.

None of that has a direct correlation to the state of the Hornet and Harrier communities and it's not because of the JSF pogram. The problems you are describing are a dircet result of the communities being forward deployed far more than originally planned or budgeted for and with utilization rates far exceeding the peacetime forecasts that drive the spares pipeline. This traces back to the Budgeting process. Congress won't allow services to "assume" they will be at war, oops sorry, I mean involved in GWOT, no, I mean Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) when they propose their budgets. They want a baseline peacetime budget proposal when they are put together starting 2 years before they take effect (I was in N88 spaces Friday and asked an old friend what he was working on and he said "You know, POM 12, the future, seen dimly!"). Congress says "Don't worry" if you are operating above that level, we'll entertain a Supplemental Request to cover those costs and they have done that regularly except for time period of the Obama Administration, but Murtha is saying we're overdue for another Supplemental (and we are).

Just look at this FY billet slate for fixed-wing O-3?s? in the past, fixed-wing O-3?s coming off their first fleet tour had a multiple choice of billets that were only 12 months long (enough time to go DIFDEN & then return to their MOS for their 2nd fleet tour without losing their NATOPS qual) ? but majority of the billets this FY are 24-36 months. WSO to Pilot transitions getting passed for O-4? dudes on their first fleet tour getting soaked up for IA billets! WTF?

Take that up with your chain of command for action or explanation

There?s more but shouldn?t be discussed here? it?s a train wreck for sure though and I think it?s going to culminate shortly.

I got mine though. It's all timing, for sure. On topic, it is a beautiful jet... of course it'll look a lot different after the Corps gets a hold of it ... the jet will be dirty, the paint will be jacked, there will be pylons hanging from it and it'll rarely be FMC.

SF

What's the Marine say on the Military Channel ad say? Something like "Part of being a Marine is getting dirty" so the jury's out on the paint scheme although that's a new polymer and the semi-sheen will lilkely resist need to spot paint in first place and not absorb grease and other undesirable substances the way the current flat gray paint does. There are several test platforms out there right now (AH-1, UH-1 and a MV-22 as well as the entire F-22 community) checking to see if the paint works as advertised.
 

jarhead

UAL CA; retired hinge
pilot
Whoa, Tex! Put away your six-shooter...
HJ, appreciate your explanation. I don’t pretend to know about what goes on at those levels. My post was partly out of aggravation from some briefs last week & before the holidays but mostly “PWI”. All I know is the Harrier & Hornets are only getting worse and the F-35B sliding is going to hurt. The Navy was smart buying into the SH...

One comment I do have WRT to your post ... I totally agree “any savvy betting person wouldn’t wager a dime that a program like JSF will be on time”, but why, as recently as the middle of December '09, does General Conway still believe, as does Bob Stevens of LM, that the F-35B will still IOC in 2012? Reference this speech about halfway down for the General's remarks. I won’t question the Commandant but I find his optimistic outlook regarding the IOC of the F-35B interesting.

SF
 

HeyJoe

Fly Navy! ...or USMC
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
HJ, appreciate your explanation. I don’t pretend to know about what goes on at those levels. My post was partly out of aggravation from some briefs last week & before the holidays but mostly “PWI”. All I know is the Harrier & Hornets are only getting worse and the F-35B sliding is going to hurt. The Navy was smart buying into the SH...

One comment I do have WRT to your post ... I totally agree “any savvy betting person wouldn’t wager a dime that a program like JSF will be on time”, but why, as recently as the middle of December '09, does General Conway still believe, as does Bob Stevens of LM, that the F-35B will still IOC in 2012? Reference this speech about halfway down for the General's remarks. I won’t question the Commandant but I find his optimistic outlook regarding the IOC of the F-35B interesting.

SF

IOC = Inital Operational Capability and that equates to only one squadron being outfitted and declared operational (has to put people through RAG and be worked up to point they can deploy). Remember, SECDEF's decision was FY-11-15. What is available in 2012 was decided in the budgets for 08, 09 and 10 (as it takes 2 years to contract for build an airplane) so what they're saying is true (as long as there are no showstoppers). SECDEF's decision will affect how fast squadrons stand up afterwards.

If you look at MV-22, when they stood down after last mishap, the prior year commitments still produced MV-22s as they introduced fixes ultimately resulting in a A, B and C configuration before they could retrofit fixes. That is time consuming and expensive so SECDEF is concentrating effort into defining the ultimate operational version of the F-35 so that doesn't happen.
 

bert

Enjoying the real world
pilot
Contributor
JSF is an ambitious program and nobody could know whether it was going to slide or not.

I agree we may not have known, in a Schroedinger's Cat sort of way, but I'm pretty sure most of us guessed correctly.
 

HeyJoe

Fly Navy! ...or USMC
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I agree we may not have known, in a Schroedinger's Cat sort of way, but I'm pretty sure most of us guessed correctly.

Most of it stems from the Prime OEM (industry) promising to deliver so much to beat out competition int he first place. Then comes delivering against the promise they are contractually bound to meet. Even though the street talk may be whispering that they aren't going to meet a certain peformance metric or deadline, contractually...they have to be given their period of performance to execute as stated in the agreed upon statement of work. Because of the way government contracting works, they have to predict where they are spending the R&D dollars and judged on how well they meet that prediction, which tends to inhibit discretion in shifting funds to address issues.The critical watch items now will be the Developmental Test by VX-23 of 2 F-35Bs at Pax. This is first venue in which Government has possession of the F-35B and the Test Pilots will be looking at the actual performance versus the Specification(s) contained in the Statement of Work without rose colored glasses of the prime contractor as they expend the performane envelope to clear it eventually for the independent and impartial Operational Test that comes later (with VX-9).
 

Treetop Flyer

Well-Known Member
pilot
So? higher already knew this so they stood up a RAG anyways? There?s a CO and a cadre of Marine pilots in Eglin that think they are getting a jet by the end of this year and eleven more jets next year? really sucks to be them - DIFOP only to fly a sim.

(Ear-muffs for you young motivated wanna-be?s)?

I'm not surprised though, it?s all about perception I suppose ? higher has probably known for a few years that the F-35B was going to slide but has put up a front, a ?smiley face that things are great!?, in order to keep funding, etc. If that?s the case, the Corps has fucked a lot of dudes in the Harrier & Hornet communities ?cause those fellas have become expendable?not just the young pilots but maintainers included. The jets are falling apart and are maintenance nightmares. Unless you?re deployed, you?re barely flying? a lot of dudes coming off their first fleet tour have an IA under their belt and only 400-500 hours in over-populated communities ? maintainers are working their ass off to keep a handful of jets up. I know of several dudes in the last couple years who had to get waivers because they didn't meet their 100hours a year 3710 requirement- that's Third World AF shit IMO.

Just look at this FY billet slate for fixed-wing O-3?s? in the past, fixed-wing O-3?s coming off their first fleet tour had a multiple choice of billets that were only 12 months long (enough time to go DIFDEN & then return to their MOS for their 2nd fleet tour without losing their NATOPS qual) ? but majority of the billets this FY are 24-36 months. WSO to Pilot transitions getting passed for O-4? dudes on their first fleet tour getting soaked up for IA billets! WTF?

There?s more but shouldn?t be discussed here? it?s a train wreck for sure though and I think it?s going to culminate shortly.

I got mine though. It's all timing, for sure. On topic, it is a beautiful jet... of course it'll look a lot different after the Corps gets a hold of it ... the jet will be dirty, the paint will be jacked, there will be pylons hanging from it and it'll rarely be FMC.

SF

Either I flew with you on friday, or I flew with someone who said the exact same thing at Orange Grove
 

bert

Enjoying the real world
pilot
Contributor
Trust me, I'm with you on why it went down that way. Unfortunately, we have put ourselves in the situation where we (the gov't) have essentially giving industry enormous financial incentives to make proposals with these amazingly optimistic schedules and insane amounts of technical risk. To be honest, even the most wildly successful outcomes in these initial tests won't fix what is broken at this point.
 

Jim123

DD-214 in hand and I'm gonna party like it's 1998
pilot
I agree we may not have known, in a Schroedinger's Cat sort of way, but I'm pretty sure most of us guessed correctly.

Wow... what... a... reference... :)

Anyway, on the Navy side over the past ten years the helo master plan slid a year here, a year there... and that was nicely synched up with a pilot manning slinky from the the post-Cold War drawdown/we might have cut too many people and now too many people are getting out even with the bonus/we gotta recruit lots and lots of pilots overreaction... It's always a shame when good people get a raw deal, but to put what Brett just said (only put it nicely), life goes on, and it will probably happen again--it just does--as heyjoe explained.
 

HeyJoe

Fly Navy! ...or USMC
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Trust me, I'm with you on why it went down that way. Unfortunately, we have put ourselves in the situation where we (the gov't) have essentially giving industry enormous financial incentives to make proposals with these amazingly optimistic schedules and insane amounts of technical risk.

Yep. That's why Sergeant York or A-12 never happened or Crusader or Comanche or ACS.

To be honest, even the most wildly successful outcomes in these initial tests won't fix what is broken at this point.

The decision to fund 26 E/F is first sign of a mitigation strategy. Navy is in best position to opt out altogether*, but Marine Corps sold their souls on the F-35B as much or more than Air Force did on F-22 and got several others to follow suit. Those actions are the glue that keeps JSF program alive and "protected".

*Of course, if UCAS-N is successful, you'll likely have E/F strike platforms and a squadron or Det of UCAS platforms.
 

HeyJoe

Fly Navy! ...or USMC
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I agree we may not have known, in a Schroedinger's Cat sort of way, but I'm pretty sure most of us guessed correctly.

Wow... what... a... reference...

Yeah, what..a...reference, things work in DC are hardly Quantum Mechanics, by the way...ahem, make that "Schrödinger's" to be correct (I'd prefer Plato's Allegory of the Cave).
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Yeah, what..a...reference, things work in DC are hardly Quantum Mechanics, by the way...ahem, make that "Schrödinger's" to be correct (I'd prefer Plato's Allegory of the Cave).

So if a tree falls on a LM rep in the forest and there's no one else there to observe it, is he really dead? :D

Brett
 

HeyJoe

Fly Navy! ...or USMC
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
So if a tree falls on a LM rep in the forest and there's no one else there to observe it, is he really dead? :D

Brett

Hmm, I think they regenerate immediately whether it be by Quantum Physics or a Borg concept in which one dies and another gets activated. Their connectivity on the BD side is way ahead of the Borg Collective
 

bert

Enjoying the real world
pilot
Contributor
Yeah, what..a...reference, things work in DC are hardly Quantum Mechanics, by the way...ahem, make that "Schrödinger's" to be correct (I'd prefer Plato's Allegory of the Cave).

On the downside, I was too lazy to find the "ö" myself. On the upside, I now know where to copy/paste it from next time I have the urge to go obscure. I agree contracting may not be quantum mechanics, but I don't think "rocket surgery" would be too far off the mark.
 

bert

Enjoying the real world
pilot
Contributor
Yep. That's why Sergeant York or A-12 never happened or Crusader or Comanche or ACS.



The decision to fund 26 E/F is first sign of a mitigation strategy. Navy is in best position to opt out altogether*, but Marine Corps sold their souls on the F-35B as much or more than Air Force did on F-22 and got several others to follow suit. Those actions are the glue that keeps JSF program alive and "protected".

*Of course, if UCAS-N is successful, you'll likely have E/F strike platforms and a squadron or Det of UCAS platforms.

Do you think the Navy could get away with it politically? It seems to me they would just crush the cost/airframe and it would be hard to imagine the program surviving the after-effects. Not that I thought of it at the time, but I still wonder if one of the goals of the program was "too big to fail" status since it could well be the last manned fighter.*


* Note: blatant conspiracy theory, tinfoil hat required.
 
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