The Ph.D program is for senior officers only (O-5 and above). As for the business about FITREPS. You have one requirement to make O-4 as an intelligence officer - a sea tour (now 30mos. in length) and the selection rate runs about 80% (+10% = 90% selection rate. So while you only have to be breathing to make LTJG and LT, to make LCDR you have to blink in addition to breathe). As an intelligence officer you will be in a competitive environment only if you are at a command where there are others that share your same designator...if you are a squadron intel officer you will be 1 of 1 Promotable. And relax, you will be Promotable all the way until you are an LT or in a competitve tour. Don't worry too much about this stuff, just do your job and your will be fine.