Ok, Ok.....the statement about being number one and almost always getting what you want is a little bit of a broad statement. If you factor in every choice, (like C-130s, Ospreys, and other limited pipelines on the Navy side)the stats are probably accurate that the number one guy that week may not get what he wants. IMO you could interpret those numbers however you want, though. I've seen weeks where there were no jet slots given, not because there literally weren't any, but because no one had the grades. Did some guys that week still put jets down #1? yep. That would mean that the number one guy that week didn't get what he wanted. I've also seen plenty of guys not want jets and put Ospreys or C-130s down and not get them because there weren't any slots.
For the sake of making my point :icon_tong, lets assume (i know, i know) the OP wants jets at decision time. The Marine Corps is at least 35% jets and with the Navy doing the tailhook pipeline, the odds of getting a seat to advanced jets has increased. Now take in to consideration that only about half of the people going through primary will get above the cutoff, meaning there will be weeks where people select and no one has above a 50 or 52. I don't see there being too many weeks where there won't be ANY jet slots available. Hell, since the beginning of the fiscal year, I saw roughly 4 Marine jet slots a week and 7-8 Navy Tailhook slots being given out every week! My point is that your odds of getting what you want drastically improve if you are the number one guy that week.
Being the number one guy doesn't guarantee you what you want, but it sure as hell doesn't hurt
