So we're stuck with one of two extremes? One where you have a 90% chance to cap out at O-3, if you can even get there after a 20 year career and another where you have a 50% chance of forcefully being shown the door (or at the very least, taken out of your operational job) if you don't screen O-4, O-5, or O-6?
I didn't say that the current system was IDEAL. I said that the current system seems to be working. I'm not sure Big Navy wants there to be a lot of random mid grade officers floating around. If you get too many you're going to hit congressionally imposed caps on those officers and we'll be back at the 19th century system where no one can move up.
And when the pendulum swings and Congress wants to cut pay/benefits because personnel costs are too high, are you sure that the high turnover and training costs aren't having an impact?
I somehow doubt that a glut of senior mid grade officers drawing big paychecks and eventually retirement checks will help keep personnel costs down.
In other words, the ship's not sinking until the main weather deck's awash?
Not at all. As I mentioned above, I don't know if the current system is IDEAL or PERFECT, but it does seem to be working and provided the intended services. I'm not sure what data you'd use to accurately say that the pers system is broken, but I'd guess that it would probably contain the elements of the required people showing up on time with the requisite training. If NPC is missing that mark, then I'd say that the water might be rising. If NPC is hitting that mark, where's the problem? There needs to be a way to measure these issues beyond "I don't like it." Like a lot of things in the Navy, it doesn't matter whether you the individual like it. The system wasn't designed to please you.
This isn't just internet wanking - a lot of senior leadership is starting to say the same thing. We spend a fuck-ton of money on technical training yet dump most of it away by insisting on making everyone stay on a path to Admiral, and if they don't, then they're out of the Navy or at least out of the cockpit.
It's not about whether good guys get promoted - they do. It's not about whether we get the mission done - we do that. It's about being good stewards of the taxpayer's money. What if you could reduce initial aviation accessions and reduce the cost of annual flight training because you kept a certain percentage of O-3/-4 on permanently? And if you got better value out of that training because a lot of the instructors had been doing it for 10+ years, as opposed to LTs newly returned from the Fleet?
What happens in 10yrs when these "permanent" Super JOs decide to retire at 20 and there's no one left to fill the holes because initial accessions have been curtailed? I never was and never will be an NPC guy, but I imagine that you have to continue to feed the system with a given input. If you curtail the input you could create "pools" to provide for a short term surge but once these pools dry up it would be awhile before the pump that is NPC could refill the system.
It's not a binary dilemma. It's not "up or out" vs "everyone can stay around as long as they like". There are solutions which could offer a happy medium.
- Select and screen a certain percentage of guys as Permanent WTIs, VT Instructors, FRS Instructors, Adversary pilots, etc, in a similar way to the PMPs at the Academy.
- Expand the SAUs in each community to function as a UIC for permanent instructors without impacting the 'career' billets in the Fleet squadrons.
- Adopt a construct like the Air Reserve Technician model the USAFR uses, where people are hired as GS to support a Reserve unit or training unit, and hold a concurrent Reserve commission in that unit. So for example, GS-12 Joe directly supports the RAG as a ground school and/or sim instructor, and he's also LCDR Joe who keeps up his quals and currency with them, and can switch clothes as needed. It works great for the AF.
There's a lot of talk about how do you screen guys for promotion or DH/CO if there's no standard career path...there's definitely no such thing as a standard career in the Reserves, and yet they screen and promote guys there without issues. Once you dump the idea of being in the 'right jobs' and evaluate the records on their own merits, it's perfectly workable.
Isn't this what the Reserves are for?
I get that the current personnel system is not PERFECT, but it does seem to work. My observation is that a lot of the complaints on this board about the current system seem to fall under two categories:
1. No Peter Pans. This is the category for the individual who is upset that the system won't let him be a JO/put pilot for life and that they have to go to the boat/staff/get a patch*.
2. Personal wrongs. This is the category for the individual who is upset that the system has done them wrong based on outlier/exceptional circumstances.
A common factor in these gripes is that they're all about how the system is failing THE INDIVIDUAL. The system isn't allowing someone to do what he/she wants and therefore the system must be broken. But that's not what the system was designed for. However, these complaints seem to have evolved from "the system is bad because it doesn't do what I want" to "the system is bad because it has wasted my valuable training/qualifications/etc". It's a nice sales pitch by those people who want to do their own thing, but I'm just not sure there's a need for a 20yr LT WTI or FRS instructor. If there's data that shows that the current construct of the VT/FRS/WTI/whatever is failing then maybe that is a solution. But lacking that data, this is just a solution looking for a problem.
*Patch aside: I don't get the hatred of the patch. JOs wanted a path that allowed them to maintain tactical proficiency and keep flying. The WTI model was born that gives a clearcut path for guys to stay in grey airplanes but no one likes it because WTIs drink the Kool-Aid, tactics are dumb, gnar, whatever.