What about prior-enlisted?
You all will probably keep the good deal you all have now.
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SECNAV to Implement Sweeping Changes
- Thread starter usnavymle
- Start date
You all will probably keep the good deal you all have now.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
This is what has me very skeptical about whether the new system will be better or functionally change anything for the vast majority of people. If being in the military has taught me anything, it's that 'sweeping changes' don't happen without some critical event preceding it.
Millington is already pushing people back as far as they legally can for IZ promotions, and BZ promotions are like unicorns on this side of the house, too. Decoupling the promotions from YG might mean that we all get to spend a couple more years as a LT before even getting a look, and the "golden path" will be alive and well as selection criteria by the time you get to board.
It's also possible that the change is solely to allow the sabbatical/maternity leave system to work to retain more women into higher ranks, and to push back people who seek resident graduate education opportunities that incur NOB fitreps. So it's entirely possible that unless you are taking a tour at NPS/NWC or having some babies, this change won't directly affect you. You will just be comparatively less competitive with officers who took the aforementioned detours because those detours will no longer ding their record for board, which will cause grumblings on its own. "I've taken 3 operational tours with instructor duty and this person who took two years sabbatical and did some internship at Amazon got selected over me because s/he came back and got orders to [insert two competitive billets]? Wtf!"
I think that flexibility in the officer career path is a net positive, but there are some drawbacks as well. I think that if we expect everything to be rainbows and unicorns and hand holding that we are going to be very disappointed.
The more I think about it, the more I think that the angst of people with longer training pipelines going for O-4 can be alleviated by adapting a law that keeps everyone in initial training Ensigns, and your YG clock as far as promotion timeline doesn't start until your first operational billet. You'd lose some pay, but you'd gain some flexibility in your career path and still be competitive to promote.
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Your statutory HYT gates are reset when you commission.What about prior-enlisted?
I think this is all premature until there's some amplification on how exactly "no more YGs" will be carried out. I'm just glad the guys at the top are willing to try shaking things up a bit instead of endlessly studying the issue.
I seriously doubt this is going to impact me personally - I was startled to make O-5, I have to no aspirations for anything higher - but I can see how this change might have helped my situation and why I decided to leave AD.
I was a Shoe for my first two years in. By the time I was finishing my first shore tour in Pensacola, I was running full-speed toward the "we have to have you in a squadron by October in order for you to catch up with your YG". If I didn't screen for DH on my first look - and at the time, most weren't - then I was pretty much screwed. I think it would've made a hell of a lot more sense to keep me with my real peer group - i.e., other dudes who were finishing their First Shore - rather than whoever I happened to throw my hat with in Annapolis. It especially makes sense in Aviation because of the vast differences in time to train - a NFO could theoretically finish the FRS as an Ensign, while most Hornet pilot nuggets are O-3s or senior jg's.
I seriously doubt this is going to impact me personally - I was startled to make O-5, I have to no aspirations for anything higher - but I can see how this change might have helped my situation and why I decided to leave AD.
I was a Shoe for my first two years in. By the time I was finishing my first shore tour in Pensacola, I was running full-speed toward the "we have to have you in a squadron by October in order for you to catch up with your YG". If I didn't screen for DH on my first look - and at the time, most weren't - then I was pretty much screwed. I think it would've made a hell of a lot more sense to keep me with my real peer group - i.e., other dudes who were finishing their First Shore - rather than whoever I happened to throw my hat with in Annapolis. It especially makes sense in Aviation because of the vast differences in time to train - a NFO could theoretically finish the FRS as an Ensign, while most Hornet pilot nuggets are O-3s or senior jg's.
This is how I see it going:
Finish flight school and get sent to the FRS and then your first JO tour. O-2 and O-3 promotions happen as always. After the JO tour you go to a production tour. Two years or so into that you start becoming eligible to be "looked at" for O-4. You pick up O-4, you go into the bin for the next DH screen until you get selected for that hotness. Go to your DH tour and when complete with that tour you are now eligible for O-5. Same deal as DH, once selected for O-5 you get thrown in the command screen board and so on.
Goods: It helps the guys and gals with "weird paths," lateral transfer, platform transfer, a couple of years for grad school. They just stay a LT until they fill that production tour.
Others: Not sure how the FOS deal works. It may require more involvement from BUPERS; This dude ain't going to make O-4 right now so don't place him in the hopper till he is. HYT could be a problem. Filling those good deal disassociated shore tours could be a problem, but maybe not with since they would be filled with the not ready for O-4 primetime players.
We were debating this yesterday. Our thought was that the "golden path" may get folks promoted sooner, but if a guy goes sea tour then to ROTC for shore tour, the subsequent tour may need to be an ass pain to meet some yet-to-be determined metric qualifying for O-4 look. From there, the metric in essence resets to allow for the DH screen.
The other was that using the EP block on the FITREP actually means that. Like for the enlisted, if you get an EP you can take the exam earlier, under this new system, get a certain number of EPs and that puts you in the zone for O-4.
The interesting thing is that we are roughly 30 years out from Goldwater-Nicholls. To me, it would appear that we are finally, truly starting to see what effect it had on promotions.
As an aside, I can remember working for Chiefs that only took 7-8 years to make E-7. Maybe we'll have a 7 year O-4...
And as we've all seen with those low TIS (read low experience) CPOs, some will step up to the challenge, some will flounder.
And mentorship is required, both of the new Chief and of the junior JOs, who may still be blinded by the "Chief is your mentor" spiel from their commissioning source. But I'd take a junior hard charger who is still learning boundaries with the officers over a more senior guy I have to drive around like yellow gear or pull information out of.
Back in my era (late '50s-60s), normal IZ promotions were ~9 years from O-1 DOR to O-4. What is it running nowadays?
BzB
That. Ish. Maybe a little more. Timing goal (at least while timing still exists) is to roll to a DH tour at YG+11. People usually pin shortly before that; Super JOs usually show up as a senior LT and leave as a baby LCDR. And you'll select at the board that is the spring/summer before the FY you pin on, which can be anywhere from that October 1st to September 1st of the year after, depending on lineal order.Back in my era (late '50s-60s), normal IZ promotions were ~9 years from O-1 DOR to O-4. What is it running nowadays?
BzB
I think the best thing to come of this could be that a guy/gal could maybe serve out their MSR with a pair of railroad tracks on their shoulder, and never have to look at those fugly orange leaves in the mirror. You at least get to save some dignity that way
...and, God forbid, fly the whole time? Say it ain't so!!
At the rate NPC, the Pentagon and the civilian think tanks are trying to reduce personnel costs, I do not see O-3's going to 20 years and then retiring with a full active duty pension. If I was to bet, I would say it could go the other way and twice passed O-4's would be sent to SELRES to get their pensions at age 60, i.e. - nothing is guaranteed until year reach 18 years of active service (sanctuary). I believe the Air Force has done some of this in the past.
Yes they have, within the past 3 years to boot. I believe guys from 15-17 years in were shown the door and without early retirement.