First for Burton, Yes your scores are low, but as some have said,they do look at the whole package and on balance, your GPA, and prior service makes up for much of the score. I think you have a fair chance. Just reapply if you don't get in. MasterBates may not think you have a thick enough skin for his ready room. but I would be happy to have you in mine (well, if I still was in one).
For the rest of you, a little review and background that seems to be needed based on reading this thread.
-Putting down NFO, or anything else, will not compromise your chances of getting selected for you first choice. Just be sure you will take any second or third choices.
-The astb has been around for over 30 years as I recall. The version that only just got replaced in the last two years, was around for over 20 years. You guys can wax eloquent about what you think it measures and how effectively it predicts success in the pipeline, but after all these years there are enough data points to convince some pretty heavy hitting psychologists and educators that the test is very effective. It isn't perfect. Just as close as we can get.
-Believe it or not, ASTB scores also have bee looked at for correlation with DOR from OCS. I have seen a report that seems to show some correlation. In the case of Burton, that is off set by his prior military experience.
-To follow up on the comments regarding standardized tests verse academic test, the astb is not unlike the real world in that you don't get time to study just before you have multiple abnormal indications in an aircraft and you have to determine which checklist or course of action is appropriate., No chance to go back and brush up on your reading comprehension or vacab when the chief of staff drops some three inch NATO document on your desk and says
"I want the executive summery by close of business."
-Age is also a factor in DOR. The older a guy the more likely he will DOR. This is a very strong correlation. That is why the age waivers are given to prior service guys. They are less likely to DOR because they know what they are getting into and the upside of a continued military career is strong enough to prevent DORs.
-Just because they have an excess of NFOs in A-pool does not mean they will select more pilots. They select the number of pilots needed to man the fleet. They know that number going into the year.
-Flight time does help. A few hours is good. Solo is great. Over a few hundred hours and several ratings and it can start to be a negative issue. A private pilots license will not cure bad astb scores or get over the blemish of even a misdemeanor arrest. It isn't a cure all.