Well it wont be a direct one-for-one replacement. P-8 + Triton = ~EP-3. At least from my understanding, it'll be like the F/A-18 replacing the A-6E....good enough for government work.
Nope, not even close, even for government work.
Based on flying with several crews in the FRTC, the biggest issue I saw was a willingness to take everything at face value and a lack of understanding of system limitations.
I'd be hard pressed to believe that even the Triton P-8 combination can truly replace the EP-3. Regardless of the system specifics, you still end up trading a ton of community ESM expertise for an automated ESM suite.
The EW experience will likely quickly whither away after the EP-3 goes away and the experienced VQ folks disperse and move on, the O's and E's. I think training, mainly taking at face value what the box tells you without a background in whether or not it makes sense, will be the biggest issue with the Triton and its crews. If you have experienced crews along with knowledgable and dedicated support folks to maintain the magic boxes and make them work, like the ES-3 guys, they could work well. I just don't see that happening in the real world with the Triton, no matter the sales pitch.
It's going to be more of a tactical capability than national collection.
It can be both if they want to do both.
Admittedly knowing nothing about the EP-3, I wouldn't be surprised if Congress found its deprecation unacceptable long term. The Air Force got the Global Express E-11 BACN on quick notice.
I think it is too low a hanging fruit for Congress to care enough, they've got bigger alligators closer to the boat. The E-11 is a bit of a different animal, fulfilling a unique need that needed to be filled rapidly.
I think it is just the latest in a long line of poor decisions made by folks when it comes to airborne EW in the US military. The EP-3 was always a bit of a stepchild in the Navy but long had a big patron outside the Navy always helping out, but a lot of that support has withered to a degree over the past few years much to the chagrin of some folks who still have some fucks left to give. So even though it is still hanging on I doubt the current reprieve will last more than a few years.