The retention problem is an odd thing, several times I had DIVO's who were getting ready to roll to shore duty after 4/5 years at sea to be told this is what we have, if you want it take it, otherwise leave, we already have enough in your YG staying.
The ones I have seen leave were leaving at the 6-8 year point, basically finished shore duty, probably finished their Master's degree and now looking for nice civilian job.
If you look at the numbers historically you have a better shot of being picked up as an applicant via a recruiter than via a command.