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The Looming Threat of Automation

Sometime after the autocorrect on your phone can actually follow your train of thought and form complete phrases. Never overestimate the next 10 years or underestimate the next 50 years.
 
I’ve been hearing we’ll all be replaced by drones since I was in high school over 20 years ago. It doesn’t seem any closer now than it did then. If anything, unmanned aviation has been used as a force multiplier, and pilots of manned aircraft have been frequently in short supply.

In commercial aviation, the burden of certification and winning public opinion means it isn’t going to happen overnight, even for cargo.

Not right around the corner.
 
I’ve been hearing we’ll all be replaced by drones since I was in high school over 20 years ago. It doesn’t seem any closer now than it did then. If anything, unmanned aviation has been used as a force multiplier, and pilots of manned aircraft have been frequently in short supply.

In commercial aviation, the burden of certification and winning public opinion means it isn’t going to happen overnight, even for cargo.

Not right around the corner.

AI is getting really good at doing the ECMO/WSO/NFO/Intel stuff. Pods are getting face meltingly good. Plug in software for real time data query, comparison and analysis is on another level.

But up until the MQ-25, fixed wing UAVs really couldn't do a level speed or configuration change without pilot input. That's changing, albeit at a glacial pace.


I'd also argue that winning public opinion is a thing in military aviation as well. We still have O-5s who flew F-14s. That's 40 year old technology- it's like dudes who learned on the P-40 deciding the fate of the F-16 and F-18. Those guys who are going to make decision will be around for another 10-15 years.


Ultimately I agree, the change is going to come, but there are going to be guys who fly some version of the F-35, the MV-22, the CH-53, the C-130, in 2060.
 
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