The country needs new “navalists” with the barrier to participation being higher than mere ownership of a blogspot account.
Seriously, none of these guys have any legitimacy. They don't articulate their arguments with any second or third level details. Just "I said 355 early, now I say it's not going to happen. Commenters, deliver me affirmation." They all get paid to write, whether it's clicks on a blog or as an author for various blogs and magazines.
Two points I think are germane:
1.) There is a difference between "commentator" and "analyst". These guys like to brand themselves as analysts, when in reality they are the former. Analysis implies some sort of rigor and in-depth research supported by math. None of their pieces can be described as much more than strongly-worded opinion pieces disguised as analysis.
2.) It's important to know who pays the think tanks:
https://fair.org/extra/who-pays-for-think-tanks/
Additionally, it's important to know the difference between an FFRDC or UARC (RAND, CNA, Johns Hopkins APL) and a think tank such as Heritage, Cato Institue, etc.
https://defenseinnovationmarketplace.dtic.mil/ffrdcs-uarcs/ . The former are entirely (or mostly) gov't funded, while the latter are generally privately funded. If you look into their donors, you can generally get an idea of which side of the spectrum their views will come down.
So, if you are a commentator who writes for a privately-funded think tank with big political donors, it's valuable to able to blur the lines on the difference between your 'opinion' and the impartial, fact-based analysis of, say an analyst at RAND. If you can erase the distinction, you've gained all the credibility with none of the rigor or constraints.