NEWS Waterfront property in the Spratlys? Good investment or not?

[webmaster]

Every couple of weeks I see an article in my news feed talking about the Chinese efforts to expand their Spratly artificial islands. I think the latest report speculated that they were up to 2,700 acres of land on these man made islands, along with an airstrip and deep water harbor. All while of course destroying some coral reefs in the process. Brinksmanship in the Pacific has been going on for quite awhile with China, and this seems to be the latest evolution in the chess game. But in this case do you think the US has been outmaneuvered with this slight of hand by the Chinese?



http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/02/us-southchinasea-china-airstrip-idUSKCN0PC00Q20150702

You can always check out the new digs and water front property, unless you arelike this P8 crew a couple months ago... "This is the Chinese navy ... This is the Chinese navy ... Please go away ... to avoid misunderstanding"

http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/20/politics/south-china-sea-navy-flight/

Speaking of construction projects, maybe the Chinese Baha Mar Hotel and Resort (filed bankruptcy with the resort half built in the Bahamas) should hire the company building the Spratly artificial reefs instead?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/30/china-bahamas-resort-idUSL1N0ZG15L20150630

 

[Brett327]

Since they would appear vulnerable to any significant rise in sea level, perhaps this could be leveraged by the climate change chicken littles to get China to curb its carbon emissions.

 

[PhrogLoop]

Since they would appear vulnerable to any significant rise in U.S. Fed Interest Rates...

Fixed it for you.

 

[Flash]

Those are actually not legally considered islands by international law so we could fly right overhead them 'legally' anytime. Whether or not we actually do is another matter...

 

[webmaster]

Those are actually not legally considered islands by international law so we could fly right overhead them 'legally' anytime. Whether or not we actually do is another matter...

I guess that is what I am getting at, I understand the maritime law and these islands are not recognized... but, possession and enforcement of those waters is what China is aiming for to get at those resources and stake their claim. Who will contest it successfully? I imagine this will continue and they will build up these islands and stake a claim to these resources in a more possessive manner.

 

[Flash]

I guess that is what I am getting at, I understand the maritime law and these islands are not recognized... but, possession and enforcement of those waters is what China is aiming for to get at those resources and stake their claim. Who will contest it successfully? I imagine this will continue and they will build up these islands and stake a claim to these resources in a more possessive manner.

Actually the Philippines is over the Scarborough Shoal, which also doesn't meet the definition of an island but China has exercised de facto control over it since 2012. Since it isn't a 'legal' island the PI should have authority over it according to international law since it sits well within their EEZ. Much to China's consternation the PI has actually taken the case to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea where they should have a winning case, and China knows it. They have tried carrots and sticks with the PI to get them to withdraw the case but none of it has worked, China has refused to participate but it went to 'trial' anyways.

So if the PI wins will that really change anything? Yes and no. China will still likely continue to exercise de facto control over the islands and shoals so little if anything will physically change. The bad part for China is that they will have no international legitimacy doing where previously they have been able to weasel their way around that, and that would undermine their overall claim to the SCS and everything therein. China has pursued several strategies to legitimize their control over the area and their island building is one of those ways, the old 'possession is 9/10ths of the law' rule. They have also tried to handle everything bilaterally with the countries they have disputes with instead of multilaterally through ASEAN or other forums, divide and conquer at its best. They have even drummed up domestic support through nationalism and some sketchy 'history'. Where it could hurt them most though is internationally where they have tried to maintain some façade of legitimacy by a very selective reading of international law/custom along with plain PR (to include Wikipedia edits, both pages I linked have some pretty heavy favorable editing for the Chinese). All of that international PR would be undercut in one fell swoop by a defeat in the ITLOS case. While it doesn't matter too much to the Chinese government or even the American public it would have an impact internationally since smaller countries and their publics often look to international institutions for more guidance and legitimacy than the bigger powers do.

I wish we would sail a DDG or CG with its battle flag flying high and sailors manning the rails 500 yards off one of these islands but it would likely seen as too provocative. Hopefully the current or next administration will at least do some 'messaging' though sooner or later like the B-52 flights through the newly declared ECS ADIZ a little while ago.

 

[zippy]

Meh, just start using it for CVW-5 FCLPs

 

[Randy Daytona]

I wish we would sail a DDG or CG with its battle flag flying high and sailors manning the rails 500 yards off one of these islands but it would likely seen as too provocative. Hopefully the current or next administration will at least do some 'messaging' though sooner or later like the B-52 flights through the newly declared ECS ADIZ a little while ago.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-lesson-disputed-South-China-Sea-islands.html

Chinese state media have urged their national military to fire warning shots and deliberately ram U.S. warships that sail too close to their footholds in the disputed South China Sea. U.S. ship Curtis Wilbur came within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels last month, catapulting tensions in the oil-rich region to an all-time high. The commentary article declared China must 'teach the US a lesson' if they continue intruding on China's rightful territory, reports SCMP.

DDG or CG? Screw that. Wish you could bring back a BB simply to show off - especially after this report from Chinese media. Ram it? Go ahead - make my day.

Now that I think about, imagine Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Jersey passing by line astern. Impractical, sure - but a better use of my tax dollars than some of our recent decisions.

Maybe a new version of this famous photo...

 

[Brett327]

That kind of bluster is purely for domestic consumption. It's important to recognize the distinction. I don't think we're going to see any warning shots fired or ramming anytime soon.

 

[Pags]

Great shot of USS Pennsylvania though.

 

[Flash]

That kind of bluster is purely for domestic consumption. It's important to recognize the distinction. I don't think we're going to see any warning shots fired or ramming anytime soon.

I wouldn't put it past them to actively interfere, up to and including playing bumper boats. If not by them then by 'patriotic' fisherman 'caught up in revolutionary fervor'.

 

[Brett327]

I know they've done that with ships from the P.I., Japan and Vietnam, but I don't think they'll try that with a U.S. warship. That would be a significant escalation that I don't think the Chinese government wants - at least for now.

 

[xj220]

I agree with Brett on this one, more for national pride than actual foreign policy. Still, I love the old battleships and it'd be fun to have one of those bad boys cruise around for some muscle.

 

[Flash]

I know they've done that with ships from the P.I., Japan and Vietnam, but I don't think they'll try that with a U.S. warship. That would be a significant escalation that I don't think the Chinese government wants - at least for now.

They have done escalatory things with US Navy ships as well.

 

[Brett327]

Escalatory ramming... or warning shots?