Escalatory ramming... or warning shots?
No shots or ramming quite yet, just trying to grab a towed array with a grapling hook among others (pretty stupid thing to try and do BTW).
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NEWS Waterfront property in the Spratlys? Good investment or not?
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No shots or ramming quite yet, just trying to grab a towed array with a grapling hook among others (pretty stupid thing to try and do BTW).
China's island building project is moving closer to The Philippines - expanding past the Spratly Islands and now to Scarborough Shoal.
http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/south-china-sea-coming-chinese-land-reclamation-at-scarborough-shoal/
https://www.google.com/maps/place/S...2!3m1!1s0x33eac40a29e58811:0x68aa73d0f15ed504
http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/south-china-sea-coming-chinese-land-reclamation-at-scarborough-shoal/
https://www.google.com/maps/place/S...2!3m1!1s0x33eac40a29e58811:0x68aa73d0f15ed504
Interesting read from the National Interest. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-will-probably-implode-16088
"China’s mercantilist WTO windfall notwithstanding, there are nonetheless growing signs that the collapse of China as Gordon Chang once predicted, andDavid Shambaugh is now intimating, may soon be at hand. As Exhibit A of the signs of China’s troubles I offer, in the remainder of this missive, an email correspondence directly from the Chinese mainland. It’s from an American citizen living and working with his Chinese wife and son in the PRC."
“From what I can see, and my Chinese wife can see, China will probably soon implode. Just what the catalyst will be is uncertain. Just before that time, or as a result of that implosion, the [Communist Party] will probably try to get the population to focus outside the country, probably through conflicts in the South China Sea or Taiwan.
For more than two decades, I have been telling people that the first thing China would do before trying to take Taiwan would be to take the Spratly Islands. If the world simply ignored that, then Taiwan would be next.
"China’s mercantilist WTO windfall notwithstanding, there are nonetheless growing signs that the collapse of China as Gordon Chang once predicted, andDavid Shambaugh is now intimating, may soon be at hand. As Exhibit A of the signs of China’s troubles I offer, in the remainder of this missive, an email correspondence directly from the Chinese mainland. It’s from an American citizen living and working with his Chinese wife and son in the PRC."
“From what I can see, and my Chinese wife can see, China will probably soon implode. Just what the catalyst will be is uncertain. Just before that time, or as a result of that implosion, the [Communist Party] will probably try to get the population to focus outside the country, probably through conflicts in the South China Sea or Taiwan.
For more than two decades, I have been telling people that the first thing China would do before trying to take Taiwan would be to take the Spratly Islands. If the world simply ignored that, then Taiwan would be next.
China's Oil Production Tanks, Foreign Oil Dependency Nightmare Intensifies
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timdais...ependency-nightmare-intensifies/#5b2af35579d5
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timdais...ependency-nightmare-intensifies/#5b2af35579d5
The Chinese play the long game and the island-building is part of it.
I am keeping an eye on the Philippines. Duerte strikes me as like one of those yapping dogs who constantly tries to start shit with much bigger dogs in his neighborhood.
I am keeping an eye on the Philippines. Duerte strikes me as like one of those yapping dogs who constantly tries to start shit with much bigger dogs in his neighborhood.
A good 30 minutes if you have the time. Friedman and Kaplan together.
From the Wall Street Journal:
Australia Cedes the Seas
Canberra confirmed last week that the Australian Navy won’t conduct freedom-of-navigation patrols in the international waters of the South China Sea, giving China’s bid to dominate the strategic area a boost. Such patrols are a basic requirement for the rules-based global order that Australia says it is committed to upholding.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/australia-cedes-the-seas-1476744896
Australia Cedes the Seas
Canberra confirmed last week that the Australian Navy won’t conduct freedom-of-navigation patrols in the international waters of the South China Sea, giving China’s bid to dominate the strategic area a boost. Such patrols are a basic requirement for the rules-based global order that Australia says it is committed to upholding.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/australia-cedes-the-seas-1476744896
Unfortunate response by our friends in Oz.
I am saddened to see another generation of Naval Aviators having to deal with these ‘pesky’ islands again. In my day – Vietnam War era – we had to stay away from the Spratley and Paracel Islands or we would encounter some serious AAA. We never retaliated, we just tried to avoid them since we had our hands full in Vietnam.
I also remember Scarborough Shoals as an uninhabited shoal where I finally got my kicks firing 20mm on a rusting hulk, after years of gun envy in a gunless, F-4.
If one had to fly from the Gulf of Tonkin to NAS Cubi point, one had to take a detour past the Paracel Islands. If you didn’t they would fire at you with gusto AAA, I am told by those with poor navigation skills… (or lacked an RIO.)
Every time I went to Cubi, the spook would warn us about not getting too close to the Paracels. Usually I had an A-7 or something with some archaic navigational magic to lead me. I had nothing in the F-4 other than TACAN/DME and, an…ADF. So when I and my RIO Magellan went alone, it was via old school Dead Reckoning. You can be sure we made a late left turn east for Cubi to avoid getting shot at. {We should have blasted them long ago!]
I also remember Scarborough Shoals as an uninhabited shoal where I finally got my kicks firing 20mm on a rusting hulk, after years of gun envy in a gunless, F-4.
If one had to fly from the Gulf of Tonkin to NAS Cubi point, one had to take a detour past the Paracel Islands. If you didn’t they would fire at you with gusto AAA, I am told by those with poor navigation skills… (or lacked an RIO.)
Every time I went to Cubi, the spook would warn us about not getting too close to the Paracels. Usually I had an A-7 or something with some archaic navigational magic to lead me. I had nothing in the F-4 other than TACAN/DME and, an…ADF. So when I and my RIO Magellan went alone, it was via old school Dead Reckoning. You can be sure we made a late left turn east for Cubi to avoid getting shot at. {We should have blasted them long ago!]
Attachments
This does not help either.
In Setback to U.S., Philippines Sets Aside Dispute With China
Southeast Asian nation moves further away from U.S., a treaty partner
http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-philippines-set-south-china-sea-dispute-aside-1476959210
hlg6016
A/C Wings Here
Scarborough Shoals, We got sent to Cubi on a mini det with MAG 12 back in the day, They came down with A6's and some RF 4's. Any how we set up over the reef with a full bag of gas to tank the A6's and there is a Russian trawler poking around, PC called back a sitrep to warn them to drop their loads clear of it. The trawler lit itself up like a christmas tree and had search lights waving around as it chugged away from the area. A6's went RTB that night and an RF4 had us all to himself that night, He spent his time tanking up and he would clear out about a mile from us, put the bird on its tail and light the burners and use up the gas climbing to 65 or 70k, He gave us a private airshow until we where both bingo fuel.
Went out next evening with a section of A6's, The trawler was well clear (and still lit up) they put on a another kind of show for us by making individual bomb runs on the lagoon.
Went out next evening with a section of A6's, The trawler was well clear (and still lit up) they put on a another kind of show for us by making individual bomb runs on the lagoon.
I think the PI is going to get a hangover from Duterte's stupidity, he may be overwhelmingly popular now but his support will come down to earth sooner or later and then this might bite him in the ass. Unfortunately by then the PI itself might have gotten a few bites taken out of it by the Chinese.
Hey, it worked out great for Hugo Chávez, right?