Available online as a scanned PDF to borrow free of charge
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What are you reading?
- Thread starter Recovering LSO
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Is that some type of institutional or cultural issue?
Good question…kind of both.
Thanks for the recommendations (and pdf link).
Quick scan of the TOC and it looks like it's going to be an interesting read.
"End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration" by Peter Turchin
From Amazon:
Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why.
The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit.
From Amazon:
Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why.
The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit.
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Looks fascinating.
If you have a way of reading The Atlantic, there was a 2020 article on him.
The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse
A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.
I don’t agree with a lot of what Turchin writes, but his work is fascinating to read.If you have a way of reading The Atlantic, there was a 2020 article on him.
The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse
A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.www.theatlantic.com
If you have a way of reading The Atlantic, there was a 2020 article on him.
The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse
A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.
That was an article that I found fascinating and led to purchasing the book. As for The Atlantic, it is on my Apple news feed and I try and catch it everyday. I don't necessarily agree with David Frum, Tom Nichols or Anne Applebaum but I do find them interesting.
Found this gem of a book by the naval historian Norman Friedman: “Battleship Design and Development 1905 - 1945.”. Really liked his analysis of the triangle of armor, armament, speed - and how each nation prioritized what was important.
Making a Submarine Officer - A story of the USS San Francisco (SSN 711)
I really enjoyed this. An unflinching look at submarine life, as well as the self-described failures of a JO. Props to this author for being so candid.
I really enjoyed this. An unflinching look at submarine life, as well as the self-described failures of a JO. Props to this author for being so candid.
Seems to me he is getting attention because he predicted turbulence in 2020 and it happened. But he strikes me more as just one of those academics who happened to get lucky, like the libertarians always claiming we're on the verge of a massive meltdown or inflation and then it happens. I am surprised about that skeptical columnist who says he is a convert because of the chaos of 2020 happening. Correlation != causation. The thing is that the two primary causes of the craziness of 2020 were Covid and then that cop murdering George Floyd. I don't see how either of those could be predicted by models. Had Covid not escaped its lab and the pandemic never happened, 2020 would've been pretty sleepy minus the election.
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