I think the gouge is to keep career tracking you need to be in your DH tour at YG plus 11 years, so there might be some juggling to keep you competitive. You might have to roll off your first shore tour a bit early, or have a shortened disassociated tour. Depends on if you're interested in making DH and beyond.
My ultimate goal in the Navy (other than CNO, of course

) is to eventually have command of a P-3 squadron. With the loss of the Maintenance Officer position, I know the Ops O is the big DH wicket filler. I'm thinking by getting an MBA at my first shore tour I can avoid the year at NPS and "catch up" a little. I will probably still have some work to do to get the JPME wicket filled, but that is pretty far down the road for me as of yet.
I guess my immediate goals are obviously get winged, get through VP-30, get my mission qual in the P-3, and then do some good work leading in the squadron. I figure that should lead to the fitreps I'll need to get a spot at VP-30 as an FRS instructor. From there, I'll figure out my next steps. That, I guess, will be dependant on the shape of the fleet at the time (2012'ish) and what the detailers/senior O's have to say. My guess is the career path to command is fairly constant through time, with some waggle room after the FRS. It seems to me that most guys I saw getting command were doing their year at NPS and their dissassociated (sp?) sea tour after their second op tour with the squadron.
Maybe some of you salty guys have a better idea for me, but this, so far, are my tentative plans.
I'm sure something I haven't thought of will jump in there at some point to change it all anyway (IA, etc.)