A JO from my fleet tour had a theory about retention, and it basically boiled down to three things (for Pilots specifically, from the single seat VFA perspective):
1) Poor compensation relative to the civilian sector
For what it's worth, I never thought active-duty officer compensation was poor, particularly for O-3s or above, and from what I can tell, increasing compensation doesn't really seem to move the needle on retention. This may apply to retention in the lower ranks, but not so much for aircrew (my opinion, YMMV by community).
For sure. Living in locations that made my family sick while I deployed constantly was not fun, and I totally understand why people claim EFM at the drop of a hat to avoid Lemoore. I liked the community, hated the location. That valley is poison.
3) Lack of resources (NIPR laptops, personnel in terms of collateral duties, training devices both for simulators and live flight, etc)
Solid agreement here. NMCI has been hot garbage since it was rolled out. Now that there's a whole different system afloat, IT support is even worse. I don't know if it's gotten better in the past 4 years, but I doubt it. Conceptually, it seems as though the past 15+ years have seen an increase in the number of "efficiencies" and "lean practices" that lean heavily on the member, and take time and energy away from the mission. It's the "death by 1,000 cuts" that some guys talk about. When everything is getting just a tiny bit harder every year, in aggregate, it becomes unsustainable. Meanwhile every individual bureaucrat says "We're not asking that much more, it only takes 5-10 minutes of your time.", which makes the problem difficult to characterize and describe beyond "administrative creep" that can always be blamed on others, certainly not YOUR program, which is IMPORTANT, by God...
His argument was if you fix one of these problems then you will greatly improve retention. But when you force people to accept all three, coupled with the high ops-tempo of VFA squadrons when you’re home or away, it’s too much to ask for unless you are 100% sold on the Navy as a career.
I think the one-two punch would be adequate funding and resources for the training command (aircraft, operating budget, parts, and maintainers... the pilots will follow), and a concentrated, sustained effort to reduce the number of logins, acronyms, administrative roadblocks, and general PITA-ness that accompanies ANY job, but
especially seems to accompany service on active duty (or Reserves... good God, it's gotten bad- 100% Zip Serve compliance, anyone?). Let's treat people like they're human beings, not walking administrative robots.
Bonus Points if they can figure out a way for pilots to stay current until leaving at 20. I bet you could increase retention that way too.