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COVID-19

Swanee said:
Unfortunately that's a very militaristic mindset that may not exist elsewhere.

It takes a certain level of training to make a 19 year old kid charge a machine gun nest without question in the face of their own death. And we don't hold them accountable by telling them that they are no longer Marines when they survive but couldn't do it.

Perhaps those legislative measures would help.


I, too, get frustrated when an ER doc, when an ICO nurse, says, "This isn't what I signed up for." But I would have a measured level of understanding if a Sub Nuke somehow found their way into an infantry company; and, as an officer, an understanding of when that nuke kid would be more of a liability than a help while we are clearing a house full of bad guys. "Hey kid, why don't you wait in the tree line here, if a bad guy runs past this point- shoot them. And call me if someone else shows up. Here's a radio- do you know how this works?"

Training is going to be the name of the game. Hopefully we have enough time.
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I think you literally described the IA process.
 
Treetop Flyer said:
www.technologyreview.com

Blood tests show 14% of people are now immune to covid-19 in one town in Germany

Surveys of who has been infected show the pandemic still has far to go before it burns out
www.technologyreview.com www.technologyreview.com

Herd immunity has a ways to go, but actual fatality rate estimated at .37% in this instance.

Time to get back to work and stop the insanity.
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I'm surprised that's what you took from the article since it says that the 14% that are immune are far from the required levels necessary for herd immunity.

That said, their approach is the right way to determine when we can start getting back to work.
 
Swine flu total Americans infected from Jan 2009-Apr 2010: 60M

Swine flu estimated immunity: 2/3

Worst month: October 2009, 7% of all outpatient visits.

Projected total COVID-19 infections through Spring 2021 based on Swine Flu pandemic and no herd immunity: 170M

Projected total hospitalizations through spring 2021 (15-20% of all cases): 25-27M

Projected deaths (1-1.5% of hospitalizations): 250-350k

'But Dr. Fauci just projected 60k dead due to social distancing'

All of Dr Fauci's models inexplicably assume complete viral eradication by August 4, 2020. Understanding the actual percentage of serious cases and deaths could drastically reduce some of these numbers.
 
Flash said:
That's an extremely small sample size for such a widespread disease and one shouldn't pin too much on that particular number.
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I might have misunderstood it, but it says they took blood samples from 500 individuals in a city with a population of about 12,000. That seems like at least as confidence as things like "who are you going to vote for" opinion polls.
 
Spekkio said:
All of Dr Fauci's models inexplicably assume complete viral eradication by August 4, 2020. Understanding the actual percentage of serious cases and deaths could drastically reduce some of these numbers.
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Accurate numbers on that stuff is going to have to wait until most of this is over, unfortunately. Big errors in getting data and even attributing deaths while we are in the thick of it.

Come May some towns or cities will maybe relax the distancing, and we’ll find out what happens experimentally. The rest of us will watch and learn.
 
Pags said:
I'm surprised that's what you took from the article since it says that the 14% that are immune are far from the required levels necessary for herd immunity.

That said, their approach is the right way to determine when we can start getting back to work.
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The idea was to flatten the curve, not eradicate the disease along with the economy. We aren’t out of the woods, but it looks like we’ve already seen the worst case scenario in NYC, and we didn’t have people dying in the streets.

www.theguardian.com

The cluster effect: how social gatherings were rocket fuel for coronavirus

Holding hands, kissing, sharing drinks from the same glass all helped spread the virus
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Plus as we learn more, perhaps we overreacted. Bars, concerts, sporting events, parties? Maybe not. If you are high risk stay home. Otherwise put on a mask, wash your hands, and get to work.
 
taxi1 said:
Accurate numbers on that stuff is going to have to wait until most of this is over, unfortunately. Big errors in getting data and even attributing deaths while we are in the thick of it.

Come May some towns or cities will maybe relax the distancing, and we’ll find out what happens experimentally. The rest of us will watch and learn.
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What I hope to illustrate with this gross analysis is:

1) That we're still only in the beginning.

2) Why I think that our political leadership's plan is shallow, stupid, and inadequate.

3) There's a lot of misinformation being promoted as well as models that don't pass the common sense test.
 
Treetop Flyer said:
The idea was to flatten the curve, not eradicate the disease along with the economy. We aren’t out of the woods, but it looks like we’ve already seen the worst case scenario in NYC, and we didn’t have people dying in the streets.

www.theguardian.com

The cluster effect: how social gatherings were rocket fuel for coronavirus

Holding hands, kissing, sharing drinks from the same glass all helped spread the virus
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Plus as we learn more, perhaps we overreacted. Bars, concerts, sporting events, parties? Maybe not. If you are high risk stay home. Otherwise put on a mask, wash your hands, and get to work.
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I'd offer that the reason things look relatively rosy as to what was predicted a month is because of the measures that have been put in place are effective and people are doing what's necessary to control the spread. If we hadn't gone in to lockdown I imagine things would be different. Or, out another way, after we've done things to reduce the impact its disingenuous to look at the numbers and say "that wasn't so bad. why did we bother?"
 
Pags said:
I'd offer that the reason things look relatively rosy as to what was predicted a month is because of the measures that have been put in place are effective and people are doing what's necessary to control the spread. If we hadn't gone in to lockdown I imagine things would be different. Or, out another way, after we've done things to reduce the impact its disingenuous to look at the numbers and say "that wasn't so bad. why did we bother?"
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Except that we’re not in lockdown. There are enough restrictions to annihilate the economy but not to actually stop the spread. A cook can still stand at a stove and cough into my takeout order, but a shopowner has to stay home and go bankrupt. I’m not saying we need to flip the switch and get right back to normal, but we need to put people back to work. Right now.
 
Treetop Flyer said:
Except that we’re not in lockdown. There are enough restrictions to annihilate the economy but not to actually stop the spread. A cook can still stand at a stove and cough into my takeout order, but a shopowner has to stay home and go bankrupt. I’m not saying we need to flip the switch and get right back to normal, but we need to put people back to work. Right now.
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Yeah, but that makes sense because COVID doesn't appear to spread by people coughing in your order. If it did take out joints would be closed. Current research indicates it spreads by people inhaling droplets from infected people hence the recommendation for social distancing, masks, etc.

And we're well beyond "stopping the spread". It's here and is spreading. The whole point of the current exercise is to spread the number of cases out.

Restarting the economy does need to happen but curves need to be flattened first and better methods need to be in place to prevent future outbreaks. I can't imagine that people would be quick to run back to work if there was a spread that was orders of magnitude higher. I think there would be other issues to deal with at that point.
 
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