Putin plays his relatively weak hand well but I am doubtful that this latest conflict is a 'win' for him and Russia. Nagorno-Karabakh became Azerbaijan's 'Alsace-Lorraine', a territorial loss that came to dominate Azeri politics, geopolitics and military planning for the last quarter century much like the loss Alsace-Lorraine came to dominate French politics, geopolitics and military planning for over 40 years after its humiliating loss in 1871, and then some. Now I imagine the same thing will happen in Armenia, turbocharged by the widespread and wealthy Armenian diaspora who have proven more than willing to fund their ancestral land even before this latest military fiasco. I wouldn't be surprised if Armenia starts to look further beyond their patron and 'ally' Russia for arms and support now, since Azerbaijan did the same and it certainly worked out pretty well for them.
What does all that mean for Russia? While they will remain a dominant player in the region the fact that serious fighting broke out in the first place is a failure of their policy of trying to keep frozen conflicts in place without disturbing the status quo, unless it happens to be in their favor. The fact that some of their vaunted weapon systems were neutered with apparent ease by a regional rival's weapon systems on the cheap just adds to negative column for Russia. Topping it off Russia help foist a humiliating peace on Armenia and is enforcing it, though reflective of the reality on the ground it will do little to assuage Armenian anger much like the French after 1871. Those sorts of things can cause resentment, especially in the longer term.
So yes, Russia will try and take advantage of this latest situation as much as they can but I don't count this as a real 'win' for them.
