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Chinese Navy buildup
- Thread starter CommodoreMid
- Start date
Brett-Thanks for the sanity check. China dominating that part of the world, WestPAC, IO, S. China Sea presents a huge problem for U.S. interest. Look at trade and our relationships with other S.E. Asia countries like the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan etc., I would hate to see them control the straights of Mallaca which we the U.S. freely and daily travel. A dominating China in those parts could equal a Japan of WWII if we sit idly. I hope we can project U.S. influnence better in that region to prevent this.
Punk said:No, this is what our intelligence is saying, not theirs. They got some really good stuff coming on line. But you are right, its only a few ships, but hey, you always gotta honor the threat.
I honestly have no idea from an ASW viewpoint, I only analyzed from a AAW and ASUW because hey, the Prowler can't do much in ASW.
Read closely at those reports (ie. the attribution), a lot of them are based on thier claims. We ain't seen much of that stuff yet so who knows if it can live up to their brochures.
Honor the threat, yes, but the threat will probably last only a few days....or hours. China has a looooonnnnngggg way to go before they are a credible rival to our military. You can't create a viable Air Force/Navy/Amphibious strike force overnight. It took us 20 years of learning in the 20's and 30's, often times the hard way, to make carrier-based aviation the viable and potent weapon that it was in WWII.
pilot_man said:
The 'Pentagon' is a pretty broad term and could mean just the political/civilian leardership or whoever agrees with the Washinton Times this week. 'Analysts' is even a broader term. Are they talking about actual Intelligence Community analysts (who are trained and have the official title of analyst) or some guy who works at the American Enterprise Institute or some other think tank and whose job depends on getting noticed and often plays an advocacy role.
Both terms are broad and vague and really don't capture the issue at all.
fudog_50 said:
We suck at ASW? (USW is one of the dumber new' terms that some idiot probably got a medal for coming up with, much like UAS instead of UAV, to get more money or more notice for the subject)
Their airborne ASW fleet is a fraction of the size of ours and is nowhere near as mature or capable:
[The] Y-8X is PLAN's [People's Liberation Army Navy] first long-range maritime patrol aircraft....Around 4 Y-8Xs are believed in service with PLA Naval Aviation.....new airborne early warning (AEW) variant of Y-8......So far at least two Y-8J AEW platforms were converted by Shannxi Aircraft Industry Corporation (SAC) and both are in service with PLAN.
http://mil.jschina.com.cn/huitong/y-8x_sh-5_a-50i.htm
Z-8 is a land or ship based ASW/SAR helicopter based upon French SA-321Ja Super Frelon (13 were bought in the late 70s)........A new naval SAR version called Z-8E with upgraded avionics just flew on December 25, 2004. At least two have been delivered to PLAN......... A PLAN Z-9C.......shipborne variant is based on French AS 565MA Panther......was believed to have entered limited production in late 2003.
http://mil.jschina.com.cn/huitong/z-8_z-9_z-11.htm
There is approximately 150 P-3's left and about 160-200 SH-60's in the US Navy. They don't stack up well against our fleet at all.
P.S. The Z-10, the PRC's new attack helicopter prototype, looks an awful lot like a Eurocopter Tiger or an Augusta A129......
.....damn Europeans......
Flash & Brett:
I understand your point, and don't think the sky is falling just yet, but the insidious thing about the Chinese is their state of mind. They're used to dealing w/ things over decades or longer. Unlike the US, who tends to think relatively short term, the Chinese are in it for the long haul. Kind of makes sense, what with our country only 200 years old and theirs over a 1000. Yes, yes, I know it's not the same government, but you get my point. There's a similar trend in Euroupe, as well.
Anywho, my point is the threat is real, it's just "when." Probably not in my career, but probably eventually.
I understand your point, and don't think the sky is falling just yet, but the insidious thing about the Chinese is their state of mind. They're used to dealing w/ things over decades or longer. Unlike the US, who tends to think relatively short term, the Chinese are in it for the long haul. Kind of makes sense, what with our country only 200 years old and theirs over a 1000. Yes, yes, I know it's not the same government, but you get my point. There's a similar trend in Euroupe, as well.
Anywho, my point is the threat is real, it's just "when." Probably not in my career, but probably eventually.
Concur. My only beef is with the perennial alarmist cries you so often hear in the media (and on AW). This is not directed @ you Gator, but of course China is modernizing their military, and their economy will continue to facilitate that into the foreseeable future, but some people would have you believe that we're just sitting around with our thumbs up our own a$$es. Just in case they haven't been paying attention, we're building and modernizing our military as well, and we do happen to be monitoring China's every move in that respect. It's impossible to predict what the situation will be like 50 years down the road, and meaningless to do any planning on that time horizon. What are we supposed to do though? Preemptively nuke all of Asia just in case they pose a threat in the future? China is among our biggest trading partners - that's a good thing. China also holds a significant amount of US Treasury instruments, and contrary to popular belief, that is not a bad thing. It's called symbiosis and interdependence, and it tends to moderate (but not eliminate) the tendency of powerful nations to conflict militarily. So, China is militarizing - good times. Keep one eye on them and carry on with business as usual.gatordev said:
Brett
Great discussion. I agree with all of you. My bottom line is we the (U.S.) need to be the power projector in that region of the world. If we want to remain the number one power we need the ability to control the Air, Sea (Above and Below) Land and space in the event of a crisis. I hope in my life time we never have to face a China on the battlefield. But I am glad there are warriors like you out there that will defend our freedom.
Brett327 said:
Agreed with most of your post Brett, but just thought I'd point out that China is not our biggest trading partner; our imports are less than 14% Chinese and only 4.3% of our exports are going to China. Canada is by far our biggest trading parter; nearly a quarter of our exports go there and nearly a fifth of our imports come from the Mounties. In fact, we actually export a little more than 3 times as much stuff to Mexico as we do to China. (Although I do concede we import moe from China than Mexico).
CIA World Factbook - US Economics
Now, I sit and wait for some crazy statistical analysis and get beaten in the AW circles for years to come -- correcting Brett just can't be done.
:icon_smil 
Not at all, just a clever amendment to the language in my original post to cover up my sloppiness.DanMav1156 said:Now, I sit and wait for some crazy statistical analysis and get beaten in the AW circles for years to come -- correcting Brett just can't be done.
Brett